Braxton Bragg wins a super-Perryville, then what?

The scenario of this battle is as follows: Jefferson Davis, due to paying more attention to the East than the West decides to give Braxton Bragg clear authority over Edmund Kirby-Smith, Forrest, and Morgan. Bragg, making good use of his opportunities starts his campaign off with a Battle of Richmond that's as clear a victory as IOTL, and with a larger army fights the Army of the Ohio which as per OTL has Jefferson Davis murder Bull Nelson, the failed attempt to remove Buell, inexperienced soldiers of whom most have yet to actually fight, and a collapse in morale and discipline from the rank of army commander on down. Bragg fights a battle near the Chaplin Hills using poisoned water wells to draw in the whole Army of the Ohio, and with his larger force wins a victory that would be the most smashing victory the CSA has won up to that point in the war, on Kentuckian soil.

So what really does happen then? The CSA never had a chance to take over Kentucky, as Chaplin Hills was a CS victory at a tactical level IOTL anyhow. Bragg's army still doesn't have the *food* to stay in Kentucky for any length of time, but with a victory on that scale, what happens to the overall US strategic picture? To the Confederacy's? For that matter what happens to Braxton Bragg as like Chickamauga this would technically outdo in scale any of Lee's victories won to this time in the East.
 
The scenario of this battle is as follows: Jefferson Davis, due to paying more attention to the East than the West decides to give Braxton Bragg clear authority over Edmund Kirby-Smith, Forrest, and Morgan. Bragg, making good use of his opportunities starts his campaign off with a Battle of Richmond that's as clear a victory as IOTL, and with a larger army fights the Army of the Ohio which as per OTL has Jefferson Davis murder Bull Nelson, the failed attempt to remove Buell, inexperienced soldiers of whom most have yet to actually fight, and a collapse in morale and discipline from the rank of army commander on down. Bragg fights a battle near the Chaplin Hills using poisoned water wells to draw in the whole Army of the Ohio, and with his larger force wins a victory that would be the most smashing victory the CSA has won up to that point in the war, on Kentuckian soil.

So what really does happen then? The CSA never had a chance to take over Kentucky, as Chaplin Hills was a CS victory at a tactical level IOTL anyhow. Bragg's army still doesn't have the *food* to stay in Kentucky for any length of time, but with a victory on that scale, what happens to the overall US strategic picture? To the Confederacy's? For that matter what happens to Braxton Bragg as like Chickamauga this would technically outdo in scale any of Lee's victories won to this time in the East.

A greater Confederate victory at Perryville/Chaplin Hills is not going to make that much of a difference in the long run unless most of Buell's army is killed or captured, which is not particularly likely. As long as Buell's army remains in being it will continue to receive reinforcements and will continue to outnumber the Confederate forces facing it. The Confederates simply cannot obtain any lasting advantage by invading Kentucky.

Even if Kentucky abandons its neutral stance and joins the Confederacy the Union will simply occupy it (after chasing the Confederate forces out) and replace the pro-Confederate government with a pro-Union one; the end result will be much the same as OTL.

The problem for the Confederates is that the Union superiority in numbers combined with the size of the theater precludes a WWI style static defense; the Confederates simply cannot defend every point of attack. They must instead rely on a mobile defense, holding one or two key points while maneuvering to delay the Union advances. Even then the Union will steadily chip away at Confederate forces and territory; the South will be ground down.
 
A greater Confederate victory at Perryville/Chaplin Hills is not going to make that much of a difference in the long run unless most of Buell's army is killed or captured, which is not particularly likely. As long as Buell's army remains in being it will continue to receive reinforcements and will continue to outnumber the Confederate forces facing it. The Confederates simply cannot obtain any lasting advantage by invading Kentucky.

Even if Kentucky abandons its neutral stance and joins the Confederacy the Union will simply occupy it (after chasing the Confederate forces out) and replace the pro-Confederate government with a pro-Union one; the end result will be much the same as OTL.

The problem for the Confederates is that the Union superiority in numbers combined with the size of the theater precludes a WWI style static defense; the Confederates simply cannot defend every point of attack. They must instead rely on a mobile defense, holding one or two key points while maneuvering to delay the Union advances. Even then the Union will steadily chip away at Confederate forces and territory; the South will be ground down.

And I for one can't see Bragg ever doing that to Buell, or really to any of his opponents. I think the most likely result of that Super-Perryville would be the CSA sending a poorly-led and divided Union army superior in numbers fleeing in a rout, but nothing approaching a Koniggratz. The one thing that really might change in this case might be that depending on how events go Bragg might be able to re-assign Polk to Mississippi and thus able to at least make a fuller effort at making the AoT into a full-fledged, proper army. Now *that* might have a significant impact on the war by transforming the AoT into a force able to actually handle battles at a tactical level and with the kind of discipline Bragg, for all his faults, actually wound up giving that army.
 
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