Brave New Russia: The Absense of the Communist Presense, 1905 - 1917

Russian history is my forte, and so after reading a brief history of Russia by Michael Kort, and Evan Mawdsley's The Russian Civil War, I wondered what would have happened if Czar Nicholas II did not abdicate, and the Russian government became one similar to Britain.

NOTE: Passages in italics are OTL.

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Part I

Russia was brutally defeated by the hands of the Japanese in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904 - 05. Japan has now become the supreme Asian power, leaving Russia very weak, and a laughable empire to Europe. The country is devastated, wracked by continuous war losses, including the Crimean War in 1854 - 56. The Russian people were tired of the autocratic system. It was a time for change.

At the start of the 20th century Russian liberals formed the Union of Zemstvo Constitutionalists (1903) and the Union of Liberation (1904) which called for a constitutional monarchy. Russian socialists organized into two major groups: the Socialist-Revolutionary Party, following the Russian populist tradition, and the Marxist Russian Social-Democratic Labour Party.

In the autumn of 1904, liberals started a series of banquets celebrating the 40th anniversary of the liberal court statutes and calling for political reforms and establishment of a constitution. On November 30, 1904, the Moscow City Duma passed a resolution, demanding establishment of an elected national legislature, full freedom of the press and freedom of religion. Similar resolutions and appeals from other city dumas and zemstvo councils followed.


Nicholas II made a move to fulfill many of these demands, appointing liberal Pyotr Dmitrievich Sviatopolk-Mirskii Minister of the Interior after the assassination of Vyacheslav von Plehve. On 12 December 1904, the Tsar issued a manifesto promising the broadening of the Zemstvo and local municipal councils' authority, insurance for the industrial workers, the emancipation of Inorodtsy and the abolition of censorship. Still, the crucial point of representative national legislature was missing in the manifesto.

CzarNicholasII.jpg


In December 1904, a strike occurred at the Putilov plant in Saint Petersburg. Sympathy strikes in other parts of the city raised the number of strikers above 80,000. Controversial Orthodox priest George Gapon, who headed a police-sponsored workers' association, led a huge workers' procession to the Winter Palace to deliver a petition to the Tsar on Sunday, January 22 [O.S. January 9] 1905. The troops guarding the Winter Palace who had been ordered to tell the demonstrators not to pass a certain point, as Witte confirmed, opened fire on them, which resulted in more than 200 (Witte) to 1000 (Communists) deaths. The event became known as Bloody Sunday, and is usually considered the start of the active phase of revolution.

On May 24 and 25 [O.S. May 11 and 12] 1905, about 300 Zemstvo and municipal representatives held three meetings in Moscow, which passed a resolution, asking for a popular representation at the national level. On June 6 [O.S. May 24] 1905, Nicholas II had received a Zemstvo deputation. Responding to speeches by Prince Sergei Trubetskoi and Mr. Fyodrov, the tsar confirmed his promise to convene an assembly of people’s representatives.


On February 5 [O.S. January 22] , Nicholas II agreed to the creation of a consultative State Duma of the Russian Empire. When the slight powers of this and the limits to the electorate were revealed, unrest redoubled and culminated in a general strike in October, when Saint Petersburg Soviet
was formed.

It called for a general strike, refusal to pay taxes and withdrawal of bank deposits.

On October 14 [O.S. October 1] , the October Manifesto, written by Sergei Witte and Alexis Obolenskii, was presented to the Tsar. It closely followed the demands of the Zemstvo Congress in September, granting basic civil rights, allowing the formation of political parties, extending the franchise towards universal suffrage, and establishing the Duma as the central legislative body.


The events leading up to, and including, the Zemstvo Congress are the background for what follows.

The Russian Empire was bankrupt, and Czar Nicholas II - despite objections - sent Russian troops into WWI, hoping to regain the former glory of the Russians; instead, it bankrupted the country further.

Many of the people of Russia resented the autocracy of Tsar Nicholas II and the corrupt and anachronistic elements in his government. He was seen as being out of touch with the needs and aspirations of the Russian people, the vast majority of whom were victims of the wretched socio-economic conditions that prevailed. Socially, Tsarist Russia stood well behind the rest of Europe in its industry and farming, resulting in few opportunities for fair advancement on the part of peasants and industrial workers. Economically, widespread inflation and food shortages in Russia contributed to the revolution. Militarily, inadequate supplies, logistics, and weaponry led to heavy losses that the Russians suffered during World War I; this further strengthened Russia's view of Nicholas II as weak and unfit to rule.

Many sections of the crown had reason to be dissatisfied with the existing autocracy. Nicholas II was a deeply conservative ruler and maintained a strict authoritarian system. Individuals and society in general were expected to show self-restraint, devotion to community, deference to the social hierarchy, and a sense of duty to country. Religious faith helped bind all of these tenets together as a source of comfort and reassurance in the face of difficult conditions and as a means of political authority exercised through the clergy. Perhaps more than any other modern monarch, Nicholas II attached his fate and the future of his dynasty to the notion of the ruler as a saintly and infallible father to his people. This idealized vision of the Romanov monarchy blinded him to the actual state of his country. With a firm belief that his power to rule was granted by Divine Right, Nicholas assumed that the Russian people were devoted to him with unquestioning loyalty. This ironclad belief rendered Nicholas unwilling to allow the progressive reforms that might have alleviated the suffering of the Russian people. Even after the 1905 revolution spurred the Tsar to decree limited civil rights and democratic representation, he worked to limit even these liberties in order to preserve the ultimate authority of the crown.


Despite constant oppression, the desire of the people for democratic participation in government was strong. Since the Age of Enlightenment, Russian intellectuals had promoted Enlightenment ideals such as the dignity of the individual and of the rectitude of democratic representation. These ideals were championed most vociferously by Russia’s liberals, although populists, Marxists, and anarchists also claimed to support democratic reforms. A growing opposition movement had begun to challenge the Romanov monarchy openly well before the turmoil of World War I. Dissatisfaction with Russian autocracy culminated in the huge national upheaval that followed the Bloody Sunday massacre of January 1905, in which hundreds of unarmed protesters were shot by the Tsar's troops. Workers responded to the massacre with a crippling general strike, forcing Nicholas to put forth the October Manifesto, which established a democratically elected parliament (the State Duma). The Tsar undermined this promise of reform but a year later with Article 87 of the 1906 Fundamental State Laws, and subsequently dismissed the first two Dumas when they proved uncooperative. Unfulfilled hopes of democracy fueled revolutionary ideas and violent outbursts targeted at the monarchy.

Russian Political Parties in the Duma:
Socialists
Monarchists
Third Parties

NEXT: Czar Nicholas, the Duma, and a Prime Minister?
 
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Part II

Nicholas was blamed for all of these crises caused by WWI, and what little support he had left began to crumble. As discontent grew, the State Duma issued a warning to Nicholas in November 1916. It stated that, inevitably, a terrible disaster would grip the country unless a constitutional form of government was put in place.

Despite his notorious habit of ignoring his officials, Nicholas II decided to cut a deal with the Duma. He proposed to keep the Czardom of Russia and remain his country's ruler, but would concede some power to the Duma, modeled after the British system. His decision was inspired, in part, by his wife Alexandra and their children; but conceding power to the Duma, while against all forms of autocracy, and with any shred of hope left to prove to Europe it was a strong nation, the Czar went with the idea. If Russia was to remain a world power, it needed a system like the British and Japanese. The Duma agreed to his concessions, but with some minor "tweaks."

In the Duma, a coalition of socialists, monarchists, liberals, Cadets, led by Lenin, Trotsky, Lvov, and Kerensky, and other parties discussed the new potential constitutional government. Czar Nicholas virtually had no support from the Russian people, so his staying in power was null at least; he needed to choose a successor. The succession crisis would remain intact, but the Czar, the committee concluded, needed a Prime Minister. The Czar could choose his PM, an dismiss him at any time. The Russian people would vote in elections for the political parties which would rule the Duma. The party with the majority had executive right, and could make policy. The Czar could also dismiss the Duma, but only for a period up to six months. What the Czar could not do was make policy; all policy came from the Duma, and effectively, the PM would have final say on all policy decisions against the Czar's objections. Referendums were also crucial: the Russian people could vote on policy, and give the Duma the direction of the country.

lvov.jpg
Prince Georgi Lvov

On December 30, 1916, the Czar's army warns him that should a revolution break out, they won't support him. In an act of desperation, Czar Nicholas announces a new Russian State, with a constitution and a parliament (Duma), people's rights, national elections, and a limited autocracy. With a weakening Russian army, Nicholas orders nation-wide elections for the Duma. The main parties up for a majority in the Duma were Lenin's Bolsheviks, the faction Mensheviks, the Constitutional Liberal Democrats (Cadets), the Liberals, the Monarchists, and Anarcho-Communists. The Russian people resound and elect the Bolsheviks to a majority in the Duma, with the Cadets and other third-parties in the minority. To counter the "red presence," Czar Nicholas selects Alexandr Kerensky as his Prime Minister, who sat in on the committee. The workings of a new Russian government were being laid.

alexander_kerensky_portret.jpg
Alekandr Kerensky, Supreme Autocrat of Russia, the nation's first PM.


Russia's First National Elections - Duma
Bolsheviks
Social-Democratic Labour (SDL) Party
Zemstvo Constitutionalists
Union of Liberation (UoL) Party
Monarchists
Social Democrats
Anarcho-Communists


NEXT: Russian dreams, national anthem, and first policies.
 
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From The State Constitution of the Russian State (1905, 1917)

Power shall be vested in two branches of the federal government:

The Czar, the Emperor and Autocrat of all the Russias.
A State Duma, the legislative body.

The Czar has shall power delegated to him when necessary by the Duma, for express purposes of symbolic hierarchy; and whereby the Czar, who is the ruler of all the Russias, may also retain exclusive powers not bestowed upon him by the Constitution or the Duma. The Czar:

1. Can call or dismiss the Duma whenever he pleases, but in six-month intervals;
2. Can be the commander of the armed forces;
3. May choose his successor without consent of the Duma;
4. May choose his Supreme Autocrat (PM) without consent of the Duma;
5. May preside over legislative matters in the Duma without its consent, but may have no say in policy-making;
6. May preside over matters exclusively symbolic or historical to the Russian Czar, such as proclaiming technological advancement or territorial expansion;
7. May call elections when deemed necessary by the Duma or elsewhere.

The Czar cannot be impeached, or removed from office, by the Duma unless expressed otherwise, or if the Czar himself wishes to abdicate. The People of Russia, wherein, are granted their rights and may protest the government, but peacefully; but the Czar must be respected and treated as a symbol of the Motherland, and anyone who threatens the life of the Czar or any State Representative will be arrested and imprisoned.

Power may be invested in a State Duma expressively for legislative matters, with power delegated to it not exclusive to the Czar. The Duma:

1. May make policy without the Czar's consent.
2. May prepare declarations of war, levy taxes, create rubles, delegate power to the Czar, preside over judicial or legislative hearings, delegate power to the Russian people via referendums, and any powers not expressed in this document.
3. The State Duma has power not relevant to the Czar, but is the sole symbolic expression of the Russian people, and represents them through the electorate.
4. The Representatives in the Duma are elected by the Russian people, not appointed by the Czar.
5. The Duma may levy legislation as passed by the Russian people.
6. The Supreme Autocrat is the executive officer of the Duma, and his sole duty is to represent the will of the Duma; he may sign legislation into law passed by the Duma.
7. The Supreme Autocrat does not have to be of the same party affiliation as the majority party in the Duma, and is appointed by the Czar.
8. The State Duma may dismiss the Supreme Autocrat with consent of the Czar, but the Czar chooses his replacement.
9. The State Duma shall be organized into distinct soviets (councils), which represent the various provinces of the Russian State; these councils hereby shall answer to the State Duma, and express the sole spirit of the Russian People.
10. The soviets shall organize in the Duma.
11. The soviets, hereby representing the Russian people, will compose a majority in the congress as exclusively expressed otherwise.

From Official Document of the Russian Duma, October 1917, "Depicting the New Russian Government"

The Russian Government, under the advisement of the Czar, is organized as follows:

The Czar, Supreme Autocrat and Emperor of all the Russias
The Supreme Autocrat, or Prime Minister, leader of the State Duma
The State Duma, or parliament, the legislative body
The Soviets, or local councils which constitute the Duma
The Russian People, the electorate of the Soviets and Duma
 
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This is to throw in a word of encouragement. I may not be commenting much but I am reading. Great job so far!
 
Interesting.

but at the same time, all these reforms are taking place while they're Fighting World war I?

and what of Rasputin? he can't be taking this well.
 
Part III

1915

The new Russian government was consolidated in the fall of 1914, and there were increasing cries for the Russian troops to pull out of the war. The Bolsheviks, under Leon Trotsky, encouraged PM Kerensky to advise the Czar of a potential troop withdrawal. Kerensky, a supporter of the Bolshevik concern, however, could do no such thing, for the Constitution guaranteed the Czar full command of the Russian military.

The Bolsheviks, the Mensheviks, and Cadets all decided to form a coalition to further limit the Czar's powers. In January of 1915, the Duma issued a public referendum to the Russian people: "Should the Russian State continue in the war against the Germans?" Almost a deadlock, but with a sizable margin, 65% voted No, 45% voted Yes. Once the referendum reached the Duma, the Czar, disappointed with the results, called a vote for the Duma to reach a resolution.

As presiding officer of the Duma, Aleksandr Kerensky backed the Czar's original decision of keeping the troops in the war, despite his socialist leanings; he sat in on the vote, and called it to order. With virtually no support from the people or other political factions, the Monarchists, led by Aleksandr Kolchak, agreed to a troop withdrawal, but not an immediate one. The conservatives wanted one in two years' time, because they feared an immediate withdrawal would be too quick, and almost-surely the Germans would invade Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Kolchak.jpg
Aleksandr Kolchak, leader of the Monarchist Party, and pseudo-socialist.

Fearing legislation which would force him to withdrawal from the war, Czar Nicholas brokered deals with the Serbs, Italians, and Cossacks. The Russo-Italo-Serbian Alliance (1915) was signed by each nation's leader, and effectively stated that, since Russia was in a domestic crisis, the Italians and Serbians would come to the aide of Russia should invasion from the Central Powers ensue; in return, Russia would send economic aide, delegates, and troops in their defense. Nicholas ordered the Cossacks to guard the western borders.

The State Duma passed a resolution proclaiming "Brave New Russia" as the national anthem, and a new national flag. The Socialists, angered by the Czar's military decisions, reluctantly allied with the conservatives and agreed to a full troop withdrawal in the fall of 1917. The Czar, who wanted to fight the war in its entirety, agreed with the Duma's decision. A full troop withdrawal was expected on November 11, 1917.

Meanwhile, on the home-front, a self-proclaimed mystic named Grigori Rasputin was sparking civil unrest, protesting the new Russian government. He was garnering support from political factions in the government, and started his own movement, proclaiming in a vision that Russia would cease to exist.
 
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Something sounds strange to my ears.
1. Trockij was in Canada until 1917, Lenin was in Switzerland and the largest part of Bolsheviks were in jail or in exile until february revolution, while all the other parties were legal, Bolsheviks were not under the Czar. They were legalized by decree by the Provisional Government (Lvov). Why in your ATL they were legal under the Czar? Monarchy would never accept their presence (and I understand why!)
2. A compromise like this described in your ATL was really tried in 1915 and failed. The first negotiator was Pavel Miljukov (KD Party). Kerenskij was a staunch enemy of that plan. He was in the extreme left in 1915 Duma. And he was strictly watched by Ochrana.

Just for curiosity, the failed constitutional reform of August 1915 is quite a bit similar to yours and included:
1. federalism (self-government for every Oblast/Region)
2. quasi-independence for Poland and Finland
3. equal right for every religion (Jews included)
4. freedom of assembly and strike
5. freedom of the press
6. new civil rules for burocracy
7. a government accepted (but not elected, nor voted) by Duma

Last but not least: stay tuned! I'm writing "White Dawn - the success of Kornilov putsch"
 
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