Brainstorming a TL: No Nixon Pardon

[solarwitch]

So I'm still nailing down a lot of things, but I have enough that I wanted some feedback. Staring with a plausibility check on the POD itself.

POD: The 18.5 minutes of Nixon's Watergate tapes doesn't get erased, and it's damning. In this ATL, it's Nixon and Haldeman discussing the fact that Martha Mitchell has just found out about James McCord's involvement in the burglary. In typical Nixon fashion, he's angry and frustrated, and says something along the lines of, "John better shut her up. Lock her up if he has to. Better yet, push her off the damn balcony. I’m sick of her. There wouldn’t have been a problem without her in the first place," referring to Martha's habit during the campaign of calling up the press and saying Nixon was a corrupt crook.

When this tape is revealed to the public on August 5, 1974, it validates Mitchell's claims of being held captive, sedated, and terrorized by her government security team. James McCord, seeing an earlier opportunity for the same deal he took IOTL, testifies about the details, which results in Steve King and others actually being charged. Even if Nixon's lawyers plan to argue that Nixon's remark was off the cuff and in no way intended as an order for unlawful detainment or murder of an American citizen, it's bad. It also makes people wonder even more what crimes beyond Watergate are on those tapes. Under the circumstances, Ford does not pardon Nixon, and after Ruth takes over from Jaworski as Watergate special prosecutor, Nixon is indicted.

The trial, as Ford feared IATL, becomes a media circus. More tapes are subpeona'd on other matters. Nixon's insults to Indira Gandhi, his callous remarks about Wounded Knee, his politically-motivated moves in the Vietnam War, his orders of other illegal acts- all eventually becomes, if not public, known to Ford and other members of the government. It's a disaster for the image of the office of the president.

But it's also a potential disaster for dictators and strongmen the world over. The free press, independent judicial system, and democratic process have peacefully removed a ruling criminal and sent him to trial for his crimes, all legally and without a military coup. If the supposedly corrupt and decadent capitalists have managed this, demand those who live under communism and fascism, what's our leader's excuse?

 

[Corjomc]

Let's be honest, things start to go as bad for Nixon as You describe He either has a fatal medical incident or kills himself.

Conspiracy theories abound.

 

[solarwitch]

Let's be honest, things start to go as bad for Nixon as You describe He either has a fatal medical incident or kills himself.

Conspiracy theories abound.

I know his health wasn’t great at the time, and that he was in a very bad mental space at the end of his presidency. But he still had loyalists (especially his own family), still had the money for lawyers, and IOTL, he lived another twenty years and released a memoir that was basically a long argument for why nothing was his fault.

Obviously a trial changes some of that, but even if he’s found guilty on all counts, he’s an elderly former president. He’s looking at either house arrest or the cushiest minimum security white collar prison in the country.

A medical accident is possible, but doesn’t line up with my plans. All of that said, do you have sources to support your suicide theory? I’m always looking for more information, especially if I’m mistaken on a point.

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

Ford will be under immense pressure from the GOP inner circles to either pardon Nixon anyway, or to at least commute his sentence to house arrest, with the quiet threat that if he doesn't, they will help Reagan primary him in 1976 -- after all, he's not a "real" elected incumbent, and putting someone else on the ballot would help American move on.

 

[solarwitch]

Ford will be under immense pressure from the GOP inner circles to either pardon Nixon anyway, or to at least commute his sentence to house arrest, with the quiet threat that if he doesn't, they will help Reagan primary him in 1976 -- after all, he's not a "real" elected incumbent, and putting someone else on the ballot would help American move on.

House arrest is the likeliest, I think. Especially for Nixon's health and status. OTL, the Republicans were going to cooperate in Nixon's impeachment after the transcripts went public, so I don't think it's too odd if they tolerate Ford not pardoning him. Particularly if they do any polling that gives them a feel for how unpopular the pardon would be with the electorate, as it was IOTL. As for 1976, aside from any other dominoes and butterflies from the trial changing the situation over two years, I'd say they'll want to win more than they want to snub Ford. It's generally agreed that his popularity took a big hit from the pardon, and was probably the deciding factor between him and Carter. That said, Reagan is still likely to run in my ATL, and still give Ford a run for his money in the Republican primary. But I do plan to have Ford run as the Republican candidate in 1976 and win.

Additionally, just because they make the threat, or even go through with it, might not matter to Ford during 1974. He heavily debated not running for a second term in the first place. He also consistently (and in my opinion believably, but that's purely subjective) denied that he'd made any deal with Nixon to pardon him in exchange for the presidency. I don't see him turning around and making the same deal with the GOP inner circle. All of that, and with the addition of Martha Mitchell's validated story stirring up the feminist movement, the one person Ford was openly beholden to ("I am indebted to no man, and only to one woman--my dear wife--as I begin this very difficult job."), Betty Ford, is not going to be happy with him if he pardons Richard Nixon, even if she still sympathizes with the stress on the Nixon family is going through.

That said, I definitely have to do my research on said inner circles. I've mostly been focusing on government officials, but they aren't the only ones who hold power in this situation.

 

[oberdada]

But it's also a potential disaster for dictators and strongmen the world over. The free press, independent judicial system, and democratic process have peacefully removed a ruling criminal and sent him to trial for his crimes, all legally and without a military coup. If the supposedly corrupt and decadent capitalists have managed this, demand those who live under communism and fascism, what's our leader's excuse?

So much more of a reason for dictators to not have any of that. This is the 70s after all. Pre-WWW times.

 

[oberdada]

Oh, but I like the general idea for a TL.

 

[solarwitch]

So much more of a reason for dictators to not have any of that. This is the 70s after all. Pre-WWW times.

I’m glad you like it! And you’re right, the lack of internet definitely complicates the spread of the story. The average North Korean only got a garbled version OTL, so that’s not gonna change much. Not to mention a lot of spin being involved, such as some dictators just labeling it as a soft coup, framing it as Ford taking power and backstabbing Nixon. That’s actually what the South Vietnam President Thiệu believes ATL, since that’s more or less how he came to power: quiet, unremarkable career, seeming loyalty and then an opportunistic coup. Which changes how he conducts the next few months of the Vietnam War, thus sending out more dominoes and butterflies.

But the major bits of the story will leak through the Iron Curtain. Some of the events will even be announced by the dictators themselves, as they were OTL before the pardon, since it’s an opportunity to rag on the crimes of corrupt capitalist politicians. It’s just gonna have a slow burn backfire.

 

[Corjomc]

I know his health wasn’t great at the time, and that he was in a very bad mental space at the end of his presidency. But he still had loyalists (especially his own family), still had the money for lawyers, and IOTL, he lived another twenty years and released a memoir that was basically a long argument for why nothing was his fault.

Obviously a trial changes some of that, but even if he’s found guilty on all counts, he’s an elderly former president. He’s looking at either house arrest or the cushiest minimum security white collar prison in the country.

A medical accident is possible, but doesn’t line up with my plans. All of that said, do you have sources to support your suicide theory? I’m always looking for more information, especially if I’m mistaken on a point.

I'm saying He gets Epsteined, Nixon would be too much of an embarrassment and knows too much about those who prefer their secrets to be kept that way, secret.

The Medical accident and suicide would be an assisted Medical Accident and an assisted suicide.

With Nixon's death the common decency is invoked to spare his widow and children. A whole can of worms is avoided. He goes down as a tragic figure.

 

[solarwitch]

I'm saying He gets Epsteined, Nixon would be too much of an embarrassment and knows too much about those who prefer their secrets to be kept that way, secret.

The Medical accident and suicide would be an assisted Medical Accident and an assisted suicide.

With Nixon's death the common decency is invoked to spare his widow and children. A whole can of worms is avoided. He goes down as a tragic figure.

Ah, now I take your meaning. While I agree that’s a possible outcome to the situation , I don’t consider it a guarantee, and it’s not the direction I want to go with my TL. Nixon might die earlier than OTL due to additional stress, but I don’t think I’ll have him killed.

But thank you for the insight! You’re certainly right that there would be people who’d want him dead. And a failed assassination attempt might make for a very interesting plot twist during the trial.

 

[arrowiv]

Steve King went on to become a GOP mover-and-shaker and eventually ambassador! Now he denies having hurt and kidnapped poor Martha!

 

[solarwitch]

Steve King went on to become a GOP mover-and-shaker and eventually ambassador! Now he denies having hurt and kidnapped poor Martha!

Yeah, not gonna lie, part of this TL was inspired by a desire to see actual justice done for her. I’m not going to make it a total anti-corruption wank, but at the very least I want to try to have a plausible timeline with less people like that getting away with it and wielding power.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Reagan wins the primary and crashes and burns in the general faster and worst than an AH.com user whose first very post is a 12+ year-old necro that involves saying the holocaust should have happened. You see post-election riots in 1976 and an american version of russia's Black October in january 1977.

The GOP doesn't recover from the popular reaction and infighting for a long time and the next republican president is probably Pete Wilson in 1996 or 2000, so democrats in power 1977-1997 or 1977-2001.

 

[solarwitch]

Reagan wins the primary and crashes and burns in the general faster and worst than an AH.com user whose first very post is a 12+ year-old necro that involves saying the holocaust should have happened. You see post-election riots in 1976 and an american version of russia's Black October in january 1977.

The GOP doesn't recover from the popular reaction and infighting for a long time and the next republican president is probably Pete Wilson in 1996 or 2000, so democrats in power 1977-1997 or 1977-2001.

That’d be a firestorm! I have slightly less fireworks planned, but the 1980 election is going to involve a lot of infighting in both parties. Reagan does crash and burn, though. ^_^

 

[CountDVB]

Reagan wins the primary and crashes and burns in the general faster and worst than an AH.com user whose first very post is a 12+ year-old necro that involves saying the holocaust should have happened. You see post-election riots in 1976 and an american version of russia's Black October in january 1977.

The GOP doesn't recover from the popular reaction and infighting for a long time and the next republican president is probably Pete Wilson in 1996 or 2000, so democrats in power 1977-1997 or 1977-2001.

Well, he crashes and burn from 1976-1980 and this leads to the leftists dominating for a decade or so. Also, I think more Arlen Specter a better shot in 1992.

 

[solarwitch]

The POD seems to have generated interest! I’m happy~ So onto another aspect of the TL.

OTL, the first organized protest against domestic abuse was in 1976. ATL, Martha Mitchell’s experiences and the trials involved (not just Nixon and King) bump up that date (probably early 1975?). Protestors are seen with signs like, ‘If the Attorney General’s wife isn’t safe, who is?’ and ‘Is Pat OK?’ The former First Lady, who stood by her husband despite rumors of a frosty relationship in private, was not pleased.

The years-long campaign waged by the Nixon administration to silence Martha Mitchell by accusing her of being a mentally unstable alcoholic was discussed as a continuance of the habit of using psychiatry to abuse women who didn’t obey and conform to the patriarchy. The civil rights movement weighed in, drawing attention to the similar history of accusing prominent black leaders of being violent schizophrenics.

While the APA had removed homosexuality from the DSM in 1973, it had been replaced with ‘sexual orientation disturbance’ which still allowed a loophole for abuses like conversion therapy. In the social climate of the 70’s, however, this cause did not receive as much sympathy or attention even during this ATL’s heightened swell of national awareness of issues of psychiatric abuse.

This national conversation had an impact at the World Congress of Psychiatry in Honolulu in 1976. IOTL, despite strenuous campaigning by the Soviets that it was a move born of anti-communist prejudice, the Congress condemned the politically-motivated psychiatry abuses of the Soviet Union in suppressing dissidents. But in this ATL, the lobbying had an unintended effect: the Congress decides that the Soviets have a point, and condemn the USA as well (and possibly a few other countries).

One Soviet aide remarks, “Well, we got half of what we wanted.”

 

[solarwitch]

Ford’s lack of pardon of Nixon makes the nepotist and loyalist-rewarding Nguyễn Văn Thiệu see the resignation as a coup/betrayal. Especially after the subsequent fall of Kissinger (who escaped the Watergate scandal OTL, but not in this TL). After all, Thiệu got power by being quiet and unremarkable before making his last move, and he sees a parallel in Ford. This collapses his (already poor) faith in post-Paris accords, as well as the possibility of US intervention (as secretly promised by Nixon) much earlier.

Jan 6 1975, Phước Long falls and in this TL, that kills all of Thiệu's faith in the US intervention (rather than the March offensives as in OTL). That means he has more time to plan and pack his getaway, so maybe he does take the gold with him in this TL. Point is, he resigns and flees before the March offensive, leaving Trần Văn Hương in charge earlier. But their president fleeing triggers even more desertion and attempts by civilians not just to flee to cities but leave the country months earlier. More get out, but it means an earlier/heavier refugee crisis at embassies and such.

So Hương is now in charge of a country rapidly depopulating of all but anti-communist hardliners like him and those who range from not caring who's in charge so long as the war stops and those who are communists themselves, like Vietcong/Vietcong sympathizers.

But when the March offensive starts, Hương is firmer with General Phạm Văn Phú about the intelligence regarding Pleiku and Ban Me Thuot, ordering him to defend Ban Me Thuot. The clash is therefore an actual battle (I haven't decided the outcome) instead of a rout in NV's favor, and that begins the prolonging of the war in this TL. It still ends in South Vietnam's defeat and the fall of Saigon, but possibly not until 1976.

The important butterflies here are that the Vietnam refugee crisis triggers earlier and those who want to leave have a wider window to do so, resulting in a much larger displacement of people.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Well, he crashes and burn from 1976-1980 and this leads to the leftists dominating for a decade or so. Also, I think more Arlen Specter a better shot in 1992.

Longer. Imo we'd seee the socons going the segregationist route of voting third party and bombing minority churches and being out of mainstream politics. The "right" kind of got lucky OTL with Wallace's being shot in 1973 since without that they wouldn't have been in a position to take advantage of the late 70s due to vote-splitting. There's no guarantee someone shoots Reagan, Rumsfeld or Swaggart in this ATL so longer being out of power for the right and especially socons with them not being allowed to keep as much of their agenda as they were OTL.

Without the religious right as extra votes forget the democrats losing power until after 1996 or 2000, probably 2000 if not even later. This is even if they elect carter-level fuckups repeatedly.

 

[solarwitch]

Longer. Imo we'd seee the socons going the segregationist route of voting third party and bombing minority churches and being out of mainstream politics. The "right" kind of got lucky OTL with Wallace's being shot in 1973 since without that they wouldn't have been in a position to take advantage of the late 70s due to vote-splitting. There's no guarantee someone shoots Reagan, Rumsfeld or Swaggart in this ATL so longer being out of power for the right and especially socons with them not being allowed to keep as much of their agenda as they were OTL.

Without the religious right as extra votes forget the democrats losing power until after 1996 or 2000, probably 2000 if not even later. This is even if they elect carter-level fuckups repeatedly.

The fun thing about the 70's is that the lines and positions of the parties that we see in current politics were in huge flux. The south was still largely Democrats, particularly Democrats like Wallace. The Republicans had dipped their toes into racism and religion with Nixon's southern strategy, but hadn't become the social conservatives of today. Both major parties were faced with identity crises. Arlen Specter's career of party-switching- as well as several other politicians switching in the 60's and 70's- is one of the results.

So obviously, I'm going to have fun making everything explode. Ford's gonna win in 1976, but 1980 is when everything comes to a head. Both parties are going to have absolute circuses for presidential primaries. ^_^

 

[HIM Dogson]

Kissinger (who escaped the Watergate scandal OTL, but not in this TL).

Why would this have happened? Are we assuming that there would be something in the released tapes that would implicate him further?