Brünig holds on until Lausanne

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=10755409&postcount=20
Based on this post, specifically this part:
"On the other hand, Patch's contention, following Harold James and Knut Borchardt, that Bruning had very little room to manoeuver in his economic policies seems to have found increasing acceptance amongst German historians. Even Bruning's critics have admitted that his strategy of balancing budgets and waiting until the Depression bottomed out before attempting remedial measures was an essentially reasonable pre-Keynesian response to a crisis of unprecedented severity. His sublimation of domestic issues to his campaign to dismantle the system of reparations payments set in place by the Versailles treaty, however, is more dubious. One of Patch's main conclusions echoes Conze in lamenting Bruning's resignation on 30 May 1931 after Hindenburg lost faith in him -- just three weeks before the momentous cancellation of German reparations by the Lausanne Conference. Patch asserts that, up to the time of his resignation, Bruning was running an extremely shaky ship as well as could be expected; in particular, the 13 April ban on the SA and SS appeared to be dealing effectively with the Nazis. If Bruning had managed to hang on until the Lausanne decision became public, Patch argues, his credit would undoubtedly have risen. The biggest difficulty in historically assessing Bruning and his government lies therefore in his being "prematurely" replaced in (in Bruning's words) "the last hundred metres before the finish line" (p. 255), just before his most critical project achieved success."
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Heinri...ic.-a066210932

What if Brünig was not dismissed so quickly and he stays in power until at least Lausanne happens and he gets credit for reparations being halted? Could he then have had the political capital to hold on and begin working to alleviate the economic woes inflicted by the Great Depression? Could he then retain power long enough to keep the Nazis out and Weimar around, averting WW2 (at least as we know it)?
 
Well, I'm no expert and might be wrong, but here is what I have.

To my knowledge Papen's goverment had to cut aid for the unemployed soon after taking power because there was such a 600? Million RM hole in the budget. That will undermine the credit gained by Lausanne, on top of that the Nazis will claim Lausanne to be a faillure unless (and probably even than) if all reperations are dropped and no rest sum remains (even if that isn't paid).

Now, granted no longer pumping money into the east elbian sinkholes like Papen did (to my knowledge) might ease those cuts a bit but it would still hurt.

Than there is Papen investing a 300 Million RM program into the economy. Brüning's goverment had a 135 Million program planned, which was picked up and implemented by Papen. To that came a 200 Million program from Papens goverment, but that got slashed down, till the two programs amounted to 300 Million RM. I think that small program is all Brüning would do, at best, if it means less severe cuts in aid for the unemployed.

Brüning would probably not piss off German trade partners in support for the agraians like Papen did, considering that they want him dead for not pumping money into their sinkholes. That should help a bit, as I don't think pissing off your trade partners is a good idea in a crisis.

But with the circles around Hindenburg wanting him gone, Hindenburg himself no longer supporting him I don't think Brüning would hold onto power for long. There is too much against him, and any recovery short term would probably not be enough.
 

Deleted member 1487

Might his continuation until then give him a bit of cache that legitimizes the mainstream parties and harms the far right by ensuring they don't get any benefit from the bonus of not having to pay for reparations? Could it be that his longer survival means the state is somewhat redeemed by the deal so that fewer people are interested in a radical solution? The Nazis mainly got the lower middle class rather than the poor that were worst effected by the budget cuts.
 
Might his continuation until then give him a bit of cache that legitimizes the mainstream parties and harms the far right by ensuring they don't get any benefit from the bonus of not having to pay for reparations? Could it be that his longer survival means the state is somewhat redeemed by the deal so that fewer people are interested in a radical solution? The Nazis mainly got the lower middle class rather than the poor that were worst effected by the budget cuts.

But didn't the poor end up with the communist? Who were about as anti-republic as the Nazis?

I guess the SA being unable to run amok on the streets for the time being could help a bit, as these probably didn't strengthen trust into the state. If there are signs that the economy is recovering when Brüning is ousted his party might get some small profits from it, like Papen's DNVP in the November election.

Perhaps this results in Germany becoming a "regular" dictatorship instead of a Nazi dictatorship.
 
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