You know, I stand corrected. Ten years really is a long time. After all, Austria-Hungary will have FJ pass away and likely Karl as well by 1924. Which means a regency for the young Otto. This changes things asolutely in A-H where I think reforms are inevitable. I think it's less likely to fall apart than people think. Remember, it fell iOTL in 1918 after 4 years of mismanaged, multi-front warfare. There will be an Empire as long as the Common Army is still intact and those 10 years are absolutely vital for the Empire. The war really ruined it for then since they had the potential to make things better as the political situation slowly stabilised.
I seriously believe the Hungarian half would collapse first from internal issues before the whole does, which is probably a good thing for the Empire in the long-term as it would let Vienna 'save' Hungary and force much-needed reforms. The war might have saved Hungary's messed up political system for a few more years. Even then, by OTL 1916-7, Hungary was cracking at the seams with demands for political reforms growing louder (and I mean the internal situation, not the Union itself; that was way too beneficial for Hungary by then).
At least, unless Franz Ferdinand survives and becomes Emperor. Then, things are screwed.
Things definitely have time to change in Russia as well. I'm much less knowledgeable about it, but I doubt Russia could continue its militarisation and rapid industrialisation as quickly as the Germans feared. Not until reforms are passed. Again, those ten years are very important and I can see more moderate reformist factions gaining more influenced instead of the radical Revolutionaries.
I wish I knew more about the Ottomans to contribute more about them.
I seriously believe the Hungarian half would collapse first from internal issues before the whole does, which is probably a good thing for the Empire in the long-term as it would let Vienna 'save' Hungary and force much-needed reforms. The war might have saved Hungary's messed up political system for a few more years. Even then, by OTL 1916-7, Hungary was cracking at the seams with demands for political reforms growing louder (and I mean the internal situation, not the Union itself; that was way too beneficial for Hungary by then).
At least, unless Franz Ferdinand survives and becomes Emperor. Then, things are screwed.
Things definitely have time to change in Russia as well. I'm much less knowledgeable about it, but I doubt Russia could continue its militarisation and rapid industrialisation as quickly as the Germans feared. Not until reforms are passed. Again, those ten years are very important and I can see more moderate reformist factions gaining more influenced instead of the radical Revolutionaries.
I wish I knew more about the Ottomans to contribute more about them.