Both the Reich and the Japanese Empire survive?

How do you get a situation where both members of the Axis survive World War II? And yes I know technically the Japanese empire survived, what I mean is the entity led by the Militarists with control of parts of East Asia and designs on creating the Co-Prosperity Sphere.
 
Germany is pretty easy. You need a quicker rearmament, a butterflied MR Pact, and a general Nazi-Soviet War breaking out in 1938 or so. It goes on a bit and peters out in the mid '40s, with Eastern Europe partitioned at about '39 borders. Hitler is assasinated, and an uneasy coalition of Wehrmacht and Party comes to power.

Japan is much harder. Having them stay focused on China would be a good way, though the oil problem will have to be remedied. OTOH, if they do start attacking colonies (which they probably wouldn't, if the West is militarised but not engaged in Europe) they are dead.
 
Germany is pretty easy. You need a quicker rearmament, a butterflied MR Pact, and a general Nazi-Soviet War breaking out in 1938 or so. It goes on a bit and peters out in the mid '40s, with Eastern Europe partitioned at about '39 borders. Hitler is assasinated, and an uneasy coalition of Wehrmacht and Party comes to power.

Japan is much harder. Having them stay focused on China would be a good way, though the oil problem will have to be remedied. OTOH, if they do start attacking colonies (which they probably wouldn't, if the West is militarised but not engaged in Europe) they are dead.

Actually, with no WWII, if they stay focused on China, the oil might not be a problem: it will be in less short supply internationally, and the US OTL only put the embargo in place after they took over Vichy Indochina. On the other hand, given the financial drain of China, they'll have a bad balance-of-payments problem within a few years of OTL 1941...

Bruce
 
Actually, with no WWII, if they stay focused on China, the oil might not be a problem: it will be in less short supply internationally, and the US OTL only put the embargo in place after they took over Vichy Indochina. On the other hand, given the financial drain of China, they'll have a bad balance-of-payments problem within a few years of OTL 1941...

Bruce

Thats really the ultimate problem-unrestrained militarist governments lead to war, and given the position of Japan, war will end badly, sooner or later. The best thing would probably be some sort of Western intervention that ended with Japan getting all China above such-and-such point-but that wouldn't be accepted by the genocidal government we know and love.

Of course, a generation or two down the line, when the Nationalists/Communists have more-or-less united China...
 
I with Gos--avoiding WWII would do it. But the philosophy of each nation's leadership makes WWII--or something like it--inevitable.

I suppose, "Hitler falls through a manhole in '36" might do it, but then you run into the hideous instability of the Third Reich...
 
I with Gos--avoiding WWII would do it. But the philosophy of each nation's leadership makes WWII--or something like it--inevitable.

I suppose, "Hitler falls through a manhole in '36" might do it, but then you run into the hideous instability of the Third Reich...

Yes, say my full username and I shall awake, plunging the world into madness and despair.:p

The best way for Germany to survive IMO is to have them focused totally on the USSR from the beginning-maybe Italy works some kind of Franco-German Pact out, and Hitler comes up with a good spin on the Rhineland. That would also allow for somewhat quicker rearmament, which would come in handy for the battle with the Soviets. Maybe something like A Shattered World, but with a stalemate and a removal of Hitler. If the radicals are kicked out, the moderate Party and the Wehrmacht could probably work out some kind of reasonably stable political system.
 
Yes, say my full username and I shall awake, plunging the world into madness and despair.:p

The best way for Germany to survive IMO is to have them focused totally on the USSR from the beginning-maybe Italy works some kind of Franco-German Pact out, and Hitler comes up with a good spin on the Rhineland. That would also allow for somewhat quicker rearmament, which would come in handy for the battle with the Soviets. Maybe something like A Shattered World, but with a stalemate and a removal of Hitler. If the radicals are kicked out, the moderate Party and the Wehrmacht could probably work out some kind of reasonably stable political system.

Goes straight for Poland instead of annexing rump Czechs? In which case he might avoid a French DOW, but I'm not sure the Germans could afford war without the plunder of Bohemia..

Bruce
 
Goes straight for Poland instead of annexing rump Czechs? In which case he might avoid a French DOW, but I'm not sure the Germans could afford war without the plunder of Bohemia..

Bruce

Well, they could probably get the Sudetenland, and the other German bits of Bohemia. Mayyyyyyyyyybe he could force the rest into an "Alliance" and the West would just say "Awwww, look at the Germanics fighting the commies together."

Or Hitler would face a two-front war from the start.
 
Well, they could probably get the Sudetenland, and the other German bits of Bohemia. Mayyyyyyyyyybe he could force the rest into an "Alliance" and the West would just say "Awwww, look at the Germanics fighting the commies together."

Or Hitler would face a two-front war from the start.

He has to find some way to placate the French, though. If he attacks France, then he brings in the UK, which tends to bring in the US...

(How does a "Franco-German pact" work out, anyway? 'We promise to not attack you, and in return we do what we please in Eastern Europe?' What's in it for the French?)

Now, referring back to "A shattered world", if we have a more agressive (probably non-Stalin) USSR, there's some chance of Hitler pulling off the "we're just protecting Europe from commie agression" card, especially if the Soviets attack Poland first...


Bruce
 

Nietzsche

Banned
(How does a "Franco-German pact" work out, anyway? 'We promise to not attack you, and in return we do what we please in Eastern Europe?' What's in it for the French?)

Bruce

I'm pretty sure "You let us take stuff from Poland and beat the Reds with our spoils and we won't replay the Somme" is a pretty fair thing.
 
Basically I would agree that a shift in internal politics in both would be the best chance of retaining their more or less undamaged empires, although not going to war at all would be helpfull as well.

For Germany, the point of no return would be in the early 30's , when the National Socialist Movement came to power and abbandonet democracy. If this would not happen the way it did, meaning the NSDAP would fade away eventually, soon after its victory in 1932 elections, the German Reich would more or less be continuing as it was in the prewar (prior to 1939) form. A more center Right government of Democrats of liberal and christian origin would take over after the elections held in 1933/1934, since after this, the NSDAP in the OTL put aside the other political parties. In the start it could well include the remnants of the NSDAP as well, but with a Christian Democrate as Chanclor, since the NSDAP would become smaller than the CDU/CHU forerunner, as in the OTL actualle happeded to be the case in this timeframe. The crucial point would be to allow the SDP to retain its seats in the Reichstag, as it in the OTL was ruled out, simmialr to the Communists.

Japan would be more difficult to maintain as an Militaristic Empire. Propably the key would be to have not the Army, but the Navy take over politics, as the Army was not the most peaceloving instrument in Japan. The more conservative Navy was, which could mean it would seek contact with the foreign states more easily by diplomnatic means, than by arms. With a Yamamoto, or Nagano in place of the warmaking Tojo in the prime minister role, the Japanese would likely be more willing to seek out more peacefull means to negotiate a deal of some kind in times of conflict.
 
He has to find some way to placate the French, though. If he attacks France, then he brings in the UK, which tends to bring in the US...

(How does a "Franco-German pact" work out, anyway? 'We promise to not attack you, and in return we do what we please in Eastern Europe?' What's in it for the French?)

Now, referring back to "A shattered world", if we have a more agressive (probably non-Stalin) USSR, there's some chance of Hitler pulling off the "we're just protecting Europe from commie agression" card, especially if the Soviets attack Poland first...


Bruce

Well, on reflection I don't think "Pact" is a good word; maybe a more informal agreement in a shady room, or somesuch.

My half-assed idea for it would be: Stalin makes some moves that make t totally obvious that he's going to atack Poland "pre-emptively"-maybe we could go a bit overboard and hae a German spy get his hands on the actual orders. Now, France has good relations with Poland, but the people don't want war, and a war with Russia in defence of Poland doesn't make much sense logistically. If Italy has good relations with both (a stretch, I admit) then I think the French would go for defending their ally without actually doing anything.
 
For Germany, the point of no return would be in the early 30's , when the National Socialist Movement came to power and abbandonet democracy. If this would not happen the way it did, meaning the NSDAP would fade away eventually, soon after its victory in 1932 elections, the German Reich would more or less be continuing as it was in the prewar (prior to 1939) form. A more center Right government of Democrats of liberal and christian origin would take over after the elections held in 1933/1934, since after this, the NSDAP in the OTL put aside the other political parties. In the start it could well include the remnants of the NSDAP as well, but with a Christian Democrate as Chanclor, since the NSDAP would become smaller than the CDU/CHU forerunner, as in the OTL actualle happeded to be the case in this timeframe. The crucial point would be to allow the SDP to retain its seats in the Reichstag, as it in the OTL was ruled out, simmialr to the Communists.

But that wouldn't be our Third Reich, which the OP asked to preserve.
 
Japan would be more difficult to maintain as an Militaristic Empire. Propably the key would be to have not the Army, but the Navy take over politics, as the Army was not the most peaceloving instrument in Japan. The more conservative Navy was, which could mean it would seek contact with the foreign states more easily by diplomnatic means, than by arms. With a Yamamoto, or Nagano in place of the warmaking Tojo in the prime minister role, the Japanese would likely be more willing to seek out more peacefull means to negotiate a deal of some kind in times of conflict.

Its pretty easy. They need to have suffered some sort of catastrophic loss in a war, not necessarily a defeat but enough to shatter their romanticism - say, a harsher Tsushima or full involvement on some of WW1's bloodiest battles. Having their spirits crushed by the reality of modern warfare ("fire kills") would go a long way to establishing a sane, rational Japanese government; whether or not its militaristic might get swept away by butterflies, but chances are the key factors would still remain - nationalism and the need to expand territory for resources, but with much better doctrine and awareness of strategic vulnerabilities that wouldn't lead them to fight an insane war expecting everything to go their way.

They needed some serious industrial reformations too, something that would deeply affect their social and cultural outlooks on how their industries operate. Something like that was planned in the 1930s, but it was a little too late once they were dragged into China. Starting after WW1, combined with the loss of the spirit romanctisim, such an industrial and societal restructuring would aid immensely to the goal of a Japanese Empire surviving the Second World War. Especially when their industries are now able to mass-produce advanced technological weapons on a reasonable scale.

It would be a different Japan, and a different War though.
 
I'm pretty sure "You let us take stuff from Poland and beat the Reds with our spoils and we won't replay the Somme" is a pretty fair thing.

More like "Let us conquer or puppetize your allies, and make ourselves masters of Eastern Europe, thereby stregnthening ourselves to the point where you will jump if we say frog, and we won't replay the Somme"

But as a Prussian, I suppose it all sounds good to you ... :D

Bruce
 
More like "Let us conquer or puppetize your allies, and make ourselves masters of Eastern Europe, thereby stregnthening ourselves to the point where you will jump if we say frog, and we won't replay the Somme"

But as a Prussian, I suppose it all sounds good to you ... :D

Bruce

No, more more like "Let us kill a lot of Soviets (who started this whole thing anyway), a the same time getting rid of our capacity to fight."
 
No, more more like "Let us kill a lot of Soviets (who started this whole thing anyway), a the same time getting rid of our capacity to fight."

Why should the French think that fighting the Soviet Union would remove the Germany capacity to fight? Or do you just mean while they're fighting the Soviets, which seems rather short-sighted on the part of the French?

Anyhoo, if the Soviets actually invade _first_, that's one thing. If the Germans go after Poland first, it's quite another. (And how do we deal with Stalin's paranoia and suspcion of traps being laid for him? )

Bruce
 
Why should the French think that fighting the Soviet Union would remove the Germany capacity to fight? Or do you just mean while they're fighting the Soviets, which seems rather short-sighted on the part of the French?

Anyhoo, if the Soviets actually invade _first_, that's one thing. If the Germans go after Poland first, it's quite another. (And how do we deal with Stalin's paranoia and suspcion of traps being laid for him? )

Bruce

If we get the Soviets as the clear aggressors (or at least painted as such in the West) and Hitler goes after them, he is, technically, helping a French ally. I doubt that the government would have enough capital to declare war to help the Soviets.

If the fighting becomes bogged down in see-saw batles, I think we could have a "Just Let Them Kill Each Other" attitude in the West.

I'm acually doing pretty well arguing without knowing anything!:D
 
If we get the Soviets as the clear aggressors (or at least painted as such in the West) and Hitler goes after them, he is, technically, helping a French ally. I doubt that the government would have enough capital to declare war to help the Soviets.

If the fighting becomes bogged down in see-saw batles, I think we could have a "Just Let Them Kill Each Other" attitude in the West.

I'm acually doing pretty well arguing without knowing anything!:D

I was arguing re the notion of a secret agreement beforehand: IF the USSR clearly is the agressor (and if Hitler does annex the rump of Bohemia as OTL, it's going to require more than 'spin' to convince people that he's not the bad guy), then things could develop in that manner.

But it's a big If, and "Shattered World" really handwaves it.

Bruce
 
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