Bosnian War | No Outside Intervention

Yugoslav War | No Outside Intervention

  • Croatia Wins | Decisive - Greater Croatia Created

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bosnia Wins | Decisive - Self Determination Protected

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    36
Bosnian War occurs as in OTL yet the outside community does not intervene militarily or diplomatically (similar to Rwanda in 1994)

No NATO Bombing

No UN no-fly-zone/ No Peace keeping Troops

No Diplomatic mission


What would be the end result by 2001?
 
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what outside intervention do you perceive as critical that has to be butterflied away as "no outside intervention" ?
 
He probably refers to the Operation Deliberate Force that finally persuaded Serbs to accept the deal that was on the table.

Well without that intervention, there would eventually be a cease fire. All sides were getting exhausted by the fighting.

However, without any foreign intervention whatsoever - ie no-fly zone, humanitarian aid, sanctions against Serbia and all that, it is hard to see anything other than eventual Serbian victory, at least in short to mid term. It would create a massive humanitarian disaster as many people would flee the country. The end result would probably be Bosnia divided between Croatia and Serbia. A few tens of thousand people more would probably be killed by the Serbs in Eastern Bosnia like in Gorazde, but that is about it. There certainly won't be massive slaughter of Bosnian Muslims, whose core areas (Tuzla, Zenica, Bihac and parts of Sarajevo) would probably be part of Croatia. Sarajevo would be a divided city.
 
He probably refers to the Operation Deliberate Force that finally persuaded Serbs to accept the deal that was on the table.

Well without that intervention, there would eventually be a cease fire. All sides were getting exhausted by the fighting.

However, without any foreign intervention whatsoever - ie no-fly zone, humanitarian aid, sanctions against Serbia and all that, it is hard to see anything other than eventual Serbian victory, at least in short to mid term. It would create a massive humanitarian disaster as many people would flee the country. The end result would probably be Bosnia divided between Croatia and Serbia. A few tens of thousand people more would probably be killed by the Serbs in Eastern Bosnia like in Gorazde, but that is about it. There certainly won't be massive slaughter of Bosnian Muslims, whose core areas (Tuzla, Zenica, Bihac and parts of Sarajevo) would probably be part of Croatia. Sarajevo would be a divided city.

Being a croatian myself, i kinda agree. I think though, that the ultimate outcome would be very much the same like it was in original timeline, just with more innocent lives lost. No way the serbs would have kept major parts of the land occupied. Maybe (possibly) the croatian attempt to free the occupied croatian territories might have been a little bit more tougher with the serbs more/better entrenched in bosnia, but the "ultimate" outcome would have been the same. More casualties might have been involved, but BOTH sides were willing to accept these...
 
There would probably be a strong islamic insurgency today in Bosnia, it could become a European Afghanistan/Hindu Kush. Don't be surprised to see suicide bombings in Zagreb and Belgrade, there was already mujahideen in Bosnia during the war.
 
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There would probably be a strong islamic insurgency today in Bosnia, it could become a European Afghanistan/Hindu Kush. Don't be surprised to see suicide bombings in Zagreb and Belgrade, there was already mujahideen in Bosnia during the war.

Were there really Mujahadeen in Bosnia? I always wondered why Al-Qaeda in the 90s didn't make noise there instead of in Africa or Asia.
 
Were there really Mujahadeen in Bosnia? I always wondered why Al-Qaeda in the 90s didn't make noise there instead of in Africa or Asia.
i guess there were quasi-mujahedin in bosnia, not the kind that blow itself up in front of US outpost/embassies, though, more of a "local" power with local interests...
 
Even after the radicalization brought along by the war, the Bosnian Muslims are on average still way more reasonable bunch than their ultra-conservative co-religionists in Arabian Peninsula or Afghanistan.
 
Even after the radicalization brought along by the war, the Bosnian Muslims are on average still way more reasonable bunch than their ultra-conservative co-religionists in Arabian Peninsula or Afghanistan.

Well when they don't have a country or government on which they can focus their support, expect increased radicalism. I would think that would be true for just about any nationality/religion.
 
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