Bosnian Partition

WI:

The Serbs effectively win the Bosnian War, and unite with Serbia. The Croats unite with Croatia and a rump Bosnia is left in the middle. It would be something similar to the map below.

What would be the effects of this on later history in the Balkans.

bosnia partition.png
 

Susano

Banned
If the Serbs "win" then Srpskajoining rest-Yugoslavia would probably be a bit larger. I dont see that happen, though: The European nations want to avoid a bad example (of redrawing borders) being set, so most likely Srpska inside Bosnia will be larger and have more rights. Or hell, maybe Bosnia even rejoins Yugoslavia under guarantees.
 
I'm a complete amateur in Balkan history and demographics, so I can't comment on the plausibility of the situation besides it would probably require NATO not getting involved.


anyway, I'd note form the map that

a. rump-Bosnia is tow non-contiguous portions separated by a hostile country. Remember how that worked for Pakistan?

and

b. The Serbian connection to the new Serbian land is only connected by a very small land passage with the rest of Serbia, if they won totally they'd probably want a chunk of Northern land off the Eastern Portion.
 

The Sandman

Banned
If the Serbs "win" then Srpskajoining rest-Yugoslavia would probably be a bit larger. I dont see that happen, though: The European nations want to avoid a bad example (of redrawing borders) being set, so most likely Srpska inside Bosnia will be larger and have more rights. Or hell, maybe Bosnia even rejoins Yugoslavia under guarantees.

Guarantees of what? That Milosevic isn't going to do his worst to the surviving Bosniak population? I'd trust Milosevic's Serbia with a minority population to about the same degree as I'd trust my dog with guarding my lunch.

Maybe even less. The dog might at least show some guilt afterwards.
 
I'm a complete amateur in Balkan history and demographics, so I can't comment on the plausibility of the situation besides it would probably require NATO not getting involved.


anyway, I'd note form the map that

a. rump-Bosnia is tow non-contiguous portions separated by a hostile country. Remember how that worked for Pakistan?

and

b. The Serbian connection to the new Serbian land is only connected by a very small land passage with the rest of Serbia, if they won totally they'd probably want a chunk of Northern land off the Eastern Portion.

Pakistan split because the East was under-represented and basically treated as unequal. In addition there were language differences (Bengali spoken in East Pakistan as opposed to the official Urdu in the whole of Pakistan). None of these features would apply to this theoretical rump Bosniak-state.
 

Susano

Banned
Guarantees of what? That Milosevic isn't going to do his worst to the surviving Bosniak population? I'd trust Milosevic's Serbia with a minority population to about the same degree as I'd trust my dog with guarding my lunch.
Well, any Serbian victory would more or less neccessitate that the Serbs do not engage in those nasty atrocities anyways, so in this scenario the international community might not see it like that.
 

Bosnjanin

Banned
WI:

The Serbs effectively win the Bosnian War, and unite with Serbia. The Croats unite with Croatia and a rump Bosnia is left in the middle. It would be something similar to the map below.

What would be the effects of this on later history in the Balkans.

I just wonder why is it always OK to separate Bosnia and to redraw its border?
Why dont you then allow confederacy in USA, Quebec, Baskia, Abhazia......
 

abc123

Banned
WI:

The Serbs effectively win the Bosnian War, and unite with Serbia. The Croats unite with Croatia and a rump Bosnia is left in the middle. It would be something similar to the map below.

What would be the effects of this on later history in the Balkans.

Well, for something like that to happen, Serbia would have to have full Croatian backing and no war in Croatia against Croatian Serbs. ( That would made Croatian- Serbian agreement on Bosnia-Herzegovina possible ).
Since that was not the case- it's a ASB.;)
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
ASB. Sure Tudjman wanted annexations, but was Milosevic wanted was basically the reannexation of Bosnia to Yugoslavia, and he would allow his cronies run wild to achieve that goal. And Croatians and Serbians hated each other enough not to make a deal. Also, the Bosniaks would doubtfully get a micro state, even if Croatia and Yugoslavia with the help of mind controlling aliens would make a deal, they wouldn't be kind to the Bosniaks, more likely just screw them over.
 

abc123

Banned
ASB. Sure Tudjman wanted annexations, but was Milosevic wanted was basically the reannexation of Bosnia to Yugoslavia, and he would allow his cronies run wild to achieve that goal. And Croatians and Serbians hated each other enough not to make a deal. Also, the Bosniaks would doubtfully get a micro state, even if Croatia and Yugoslavia with the help of mind controlling aliens would make a deal, they wouldn't be kind to the Bosniaks, more likely just screw them over.

Bosniaks would most certainly get a some kind of small-state ( triangle Sarajevo-Tuzla- Zenica ) because:
a) that would be a buffer-state between Croatia and Serbia
b) niether Croatia or Serbia want's to have 2 millions of Muslims in their country
 
I just wonder why is it always OK to separate Bosnia and to redraw its border?
Why dont you then allow confederacy in USA, Quebec, Baskia, Abhazia......

Little warning: thread necromancy is frowned upon on this board. I suggest you refrain from it in the future.
 
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