Borodino: Decisive French Victory

WI Davout had managed to hold the fleches after his initial attack and managed to seize a decisive French victory (many more Russian casualties, killing Bagration and Barclay de Tolly). At the end of the day the figures look like this:

Russian dead or wounded: 68,000
Captured: 5,000
Uninjured: Approximately 48,000

French dead or wounded: 24,000
Captured: 1,000
Uninjured: 105,000

Would we still see the Grande Armee fall apart upon taking Moscow? What happens with the remaining 40% of the Russian army?
 

Thande

Donor
I don't think it would make that much difference. The French army would be less harried in its retreat, but it was the winter and the lack of supplies that killed many more than the Russians managed, and Napoleon can be relied upon to suddenly develop that strange Gordon Brown-type indecision when he reached Moscow.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
It would make a difference if:

A) It allowed the French to cpature Moscow intact, without having it burn.
Or
B) It convinced Czar Alexander to sue for peace.
 
It would make a difference if:

A) It allowed the French to cpature Moscow intact, without having it burn.
Or
B) It convinced Czar Alexander to sue for peace.

Unfortunately for the French, I doubt it is likely to have either effect. IIRC Borodino was seen as a token battle so that Alexander wouldn't have given up Moscow without a fight, not a serious attempt to break the French army; the Russians were counting on winter and logistics to do that. A major defeat will just give more credence to those generals who said the battle never should have been fought in the first place.

IIRC, Moscow's burning was done by a few agents left in the city, not by the regular army, so I would think it would not be changed by the PoD.

As Thande pointed out the Grande Armee might not have as much harrassment during their retreat as they did in OTL, so perhaps a couple thousand more men survive. The Russian Army might also be a little weaker than in OTL, though I doubt either change would alter the outcome of the overall war.

However, where it might get a little interesting is after the war, given that Russia claimed a fair amount of prestige for having beaten Napoleon and broken his Grande Armee. If they were decisively beaten at Borodino their claim to beating Napoleon is likely to be greeted with less acceptance and more commentary that it was the weather, not the Russians, which beat Napoleon. A Russia with less international prestige and influence (and possibly also seen as less of a threat) in the post-Napoleonic world could be interesting.
 
As Thande pointed out the Grande Armee might not have as much harrassment during their retreat as they did in OTL, so perhaps a couple thousand more men survive. The Russian Army might also be a little weaker than in OTL, though I doubt either change would alter the outcome of the overall war.
Most of logistic disruption French suffered were not from Russian infantry (army branch which would be decimated by decisive French victory) but from Dragoons, Hussars and irregulars of different kind. So I would suspect outcome would be similar.

However, where it might get a little interesting is after the war, given that Russia claimed a fair amount of prestige for having beaten Napoleon and broken his Grande Armee. If they were decisively beaten at Borodino their claim to beating Napoleon is likely to be greeted with less acceptance and more commentary that it was the weather, not the Russians, which beat Napoleon. A Russia with less international prestige and influence (and possibly also seen as less of a threat) in the post-Napoleonic world could be interesting.
Russians had been beaten by Napoleon aplenty pre-1812 and beaten him repeatedly in 1813-1814 in pitched battles. Why should one more defeat in 1812 change situation so drastically?
 
The dangerous thing for the French of a major victory at Borodino is that it might strengthen Napoleon's sense that he had won a decisive victory. If the Russians refuse to accept this, which seems likely unless they lose their nerve, he could stay in Moscow even longer expecting a Russian diplomatic approach. As such the winter could cause even more destruction. What would really change things would be if he stayed a little longer himself as a result and is caught up in the collapse. Unlikely but would make for a significantly different world.

Steve
 
Most of logistic disruption French suffered were not from Russian infantry (army branch which would be decimated by decisive French victory) but from Dragoons, Hussars and irregulars of different kind. So I would suspect outcome would be similar.

Agreed; like I said, maybe a few more soldiers of the Grande Armee survive, but not nearly enough to make a major difference.

Russians had been beaten by Napoleon aplenty pre-1812 and beaten him repeatedly in 1813-1814 in pitched battles. Why should one more defeat in 1812 change situation so drastically?

I doubt it would be a drastic change, just a minor decrease in respect for the quality of the Russian Army when compared to OTL since it will be easier to claim Napoleon was only beaten by the weather. The victories of 1813-14 were accomplished by multinational forces so the prestige was spread around pretty evenly for everyone. If Russia's slightly lower prestige results in a slightly different Congress of Vienna then the results could get interesting...
 
What about the morale effects of this battle? I mean, this is still Napoleon at his height (sort of). In this scenario, he has just marched into russia, trounced their army on their home turf, and then swiftly takes Moscow. If things go well enough the effect could be another Austerlitz for Napoleon. It will definatly be harder to get Russia to bounce back from this defeat in the short term, and it will have longer lasting repercussions down the road. And finally, remember that at this time Napoleon has never taken a decisive defeat of the sort he routinly inflicted. He missed a chance to wipe out Wellington and the fledgling British army in Spain, he constructed that debacle at Aspern-Elsing, and his tactical skill was degrading, but he still has never really been beaten in a set piece battle, which was the true arbiter of power in the minds of the rulers of the day. Borodino will add to an already impressive list of triumphs.
 
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