Bonapartist France, without winning the war?

What kind of 'victory' would Napolean have to secure for his regime to remain in France, while at the same time making peace with his enemies? I.e., can a Bonapartist regime last without all of Europe coming down on it like a ton of bricks?

I understand that Napolean's very personality was directed at waging war and making conquest - is there a point where he might have stopped and said, "this can't last forever?"

Even Waterloo - is there an alternate kind of peace that could have been made, where France surrenders but the Bonapartist ideals remain?
 

scholar

Banned
Napoleon could die during the invasion of Russia, but before the army is in any signficant peril. The army withdraws and the French hastily come to terms with the Russians. Napoleon II is made Emperor of France and an entirely new dynamic of European politics is open. Without Napoleon I running the show many former puppet kingdoms will largely become independent. Luis will probably leave Spain and head back to Naples. Austria and Prussia will become free again. The fate of Poland is left to chance, but I don't see why it wouldn't be able to stay around.
 
Napoleon could die during the invasion of Russia, but before the army is in any signficant peril. The army withdraws and the French hastily come to terms with the Russians. Napoleon II is made Emperor of France and an entirely new dynamic of European politics is open. Without Napoleon I running the show many former puppet kingdoms will largely become independent. Luis will probably leave Spain and head back to Naples. Austria and Prussia will become free again. The fate of Poland is left to chance, but I don't see why it wouldn't be able to stay around.

Nappy II is a baby - who might be his regent then? His mother? Would she raise him to be like his father or teach him of Nappy I's mistakes? What sorts of terms would they come to with Russia? Obviously Poland will be a big issue come peace. And what would happen to Spain then?
 

scholar

Banned
Nappy II is a baby - who might be his regent then? His mother? Would she raise him to be like his father or teach him of Nappy I's mistakes? What sorts of terms would they come to with Russia? Obviously Poland will be a big issue come peace. And what would happen to Spain then?
Probably his mother, and if it is his mother then relations with Austria are maintained.

How she would raise him is anyone's guess. Probably a lot more pro-Austrian leading the two powers into a very strong relationship. But Napoleon's mistakes? There's really only Spain and the murder of a man. Napoleon didn't crash and burn, he died on what may have been the eve of his greatest victory. That said the French and Austrian influences will clash inside France which will lead to puppets and clients gaining a large amount of freedom. There may or may not be a revolt depending on how the mother raises him.

Since Napoleon left a very large and intact army before his death, Russia really can't invade France's holdings nor allied territory. The peace may actually just reaffirm the previous treaty of friendship towards one another. That said, Russia may get a sliver of Poland. Not the whole thing, but a sliver.

Poland would survive, and Poland would be forever a French ally, unless someone screws up spectacularly.
 
I wonder what the fate of Germany would be, that is Prussia and the Rhine Confederation. And would France be able to keep its annexed territories, such as the Netherlands or the Rhine border?
 

scholar

Banned
I wonder what the fate of Germany would be, that is Prussia and the Rhine Confederation. And would France be able to keep its annexed territories, such as the Netherlands or the Rhine border?
They would both wrest themselves free from French control, though probably remain heavily influenced by them. The Rhine Confederation more so than Prussia. Westphalia is still ruled by a Bonaparte, so the influence will be a bit more present there.

Most of them, but the Netherlands will probably be restored to Bonaparte's brother, who was well liked there.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Poland would survive, and Poland would be forever a French ally, unless someone screws up spectacularly.
What? No it wouldn't. It'll be repartitioned as quickly as it was IOTL. None of the Eagles wanted to see Poland free.
 

scholar

Banned
What? No it wouldn't. It'll be repartitioned as quickly as it was IOTL. None of the Eagles wanted to see Poland free.
The army is still in tact, Napoleon just died shortly after war was declared. Russia may want it back, but no power is in a position to really demand much of anything from the other. Status quo ante bellum is probably going to happen, with perhaps slightly favorable terms towards Russia.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
The army is still in tact, Napoleon just died shortly after war was declared. Russia may want it back, but no power is in a position to really demand much of anything from the other. Status quo ante bellum is probably going to happen, with perhaps slightly favorable terms towards Russia.
Favorable terms towards Russia would be letting them annex Poland, and the French are going to have troubles much closer to home if Napoleon were to die on campaign. Power-projection into Poland is not going to be near the top of anybody's priorities when the domestic and military hierarchies imposed by Napoleon start to falter.
 

scholar

Banned
Favorable terms towards Russia would be letting them annex Poland, and the French are going to have troubles much closer to home if Napoleon were to die on campaign. Power-projection into Poland is not going to be near the top of anybody's priorities when the domestic and military hierarchies imposed by Napoleon start to falter.
That wouldn't happen overnight though, and slightly favorable terms towards Russia would be giving them part of Poland. At worst for Poland would be Russia getting back all of the former Russian portion of the country. With no side even being the clear victory and with over 400,000 troops all ready to go to war a relatively quick peace would allow Russia to sit back and see France probably crumble under its own weight. If turmoil becomes widespread in France Poland would be undefended and easy pickings. If turmoil doesn't become too severe then they already had what they lost in Poland. Just letting them annex Poland wouldn't be favorable, because parts of Prussia and Austria are also there which would influence Russia's ability to completely annex it.

It really just depends on how helpless you think the French military would be without Napoleon and before any significant headway was made into Russia. I believe they would be disorganized as the senior generals act largely independently from one another. They would, however, be a very strong force, even individually. This would encourage peace since Napoleon is dead and the drive to defeat Russia died with him.
 

scholar

Banned
What's Britain's take on all this? Or the royalist Émigrés?
Britain would probably not be immediately relevant. Britain would probably at least form a temporary peace with France after Russia does so. At that point they can guage their willingness for peace by seeing if they follow the terms of the peace, which would largely be confirming the independence of Naples, Prussia, and Austria. Depending on how things go Britain may be back in the war in a year or a lasting peace could be maintained preventing wars from becoming global in nature for another century.

They aren't really relevant. Not anymore.
 
They aren't really relevant. Not anymore.

Considering our POD is 1812 I think this is more than a bit of an overstatement.

EDIT: To be more precise my point here is that the Bourbons were restored in Paris just two years later. If the royalists were irrelevant than another system would have been found IOTL; as it wasn't then obviously they still had some pull left.
 
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The best scenario would be for Napoleon to avoid the Peninsula War and enforce the statlemate on the Continent: dominant France, quiet Eastern Powers (Austria, Russia, Prussia). It will probably force the British to ask for peace as they would be isolated from the rest of the Continent and find no one willing to rise against France.

And I don't know why, but I also always pictured a Russia allied to Napoleon if Alexander I had died and been suceeded by his brother Constantine... Constantine admired Napoleon very much: he could be disappointed by the man where he to rule, but he remained opposed to facing Napoleon before 1812. Then again, the Russian military wasn't quite okay and there is still Grand Duke Nicholas (OTL Nicholas I, younger brother to Alexander I and Constantine)...

scholar said:
Napoleon could die during the invasion of Russia, but before the army is in any signficant peril. The army withdraws and the French hastily come to terms with the Russians. Napoleon II is made Emperor of France and an entirely new dynamic of European politics is open.
You're quite optimistic. Never heard of General Mallet's plot? While it failed, it showed that the French weren't ready to proclaim Napoleon II emperor. A madman (Mallet escaped from an asylum if I recall correctly) nearly reinstuted the Republic without no one ever considering Napoleon II as a successor for his father... It's one of the reasons Napoleon returned from Russia early and became pissed afterwards.

Plus, who wants to be rulled by a child in his diapers? Only the most loyal generals to Napoleon would accept such a scenario and, sadly, none of them are really "top marshalls" except Davout and Eugene de Beauharnais. Some of the others, like Murat, were quite ambitious and versatile.
And then, there is the Bonaparte family: Joseph isn't half the man his brother was but he would want the Regency as a chance to get out of Spain, Louis will want his Netherlands back, Jerôme only thinks about festivities, Elisa doesn't care much as long as she keeps Etruria and Caroline would like to have her husband, Murat, on the throne of her brother... What a nice and caring family poor Napoleon has! The only one of his siblings that remained true to him was his sister Pauline.
And then there is Marie Louise... An Austrian princess in France? Reminds me of Marie Antoinette. Not sure if Marie Louise could freak out but she could be tempted to flee back to Austria with her son in fear for her own safety. She certainly wasn't okay with following Napoleon in exile OTL...

Wolfpaw said:
None of the Eagles wanted to see Poland free.
Well, Napoleonic France's emblem and Poland's emblem are also Eagles, so I wouldn't say "None of the Eagles" would want a free Poland. :D

But it's true that the Three Eagles (Prussia, Austria, Russia) won't accept a resurrected Poland. Particularly Russia as the Russians saw the Poles as some sort of threat in those times. Plus, the three powers had partitionned Poland before Napoleon came around and forced them to recreate it. With him out of the picture, who's gonna stop them from re-partitionning it again?

scholar said:
The army is still in tact, Napoleon just died shortly after war was declared.
To me, Napoleon's death would actually be a good thing for his ennemies. One of the reasons he was feared before Russia was because he was an "invicble" general. Before the Russian Campaign, the only battle Napoleon had personnally lost was Aspern-Essling: he won all the others, even those that where close calls (such as Eylau). With him out of the picture, the fear of facing him will disappear.

There is also a problem of chain of command at that point: Napoleon was the only leader of the Grande Armée while he was alive. Having 600,000 men under your control is nice, but what to do if you have no one to lead them? I don't think any of Napoleon's Marshalls, be it Murat, Ney, Davout or Eugene de Beauharnais, played the role of a second-in-command: there was Napoleon above and then the Marshalls had the same rank. Who is to take the leadership of the Grande Armée is Napoleon is out of the picture? His son is one year old and can't assume such command. Unless there is a clear leader among the Marshalls or they agree on the one to take the leadership, there are chances of squabbles. And I think that's the kind of bet Napoleon's ennemies would be ready to make, especially Britain & Russia.
 

scholar

Banned
The problem with that is that Napoleon can't actually win. He has to technically lose, but the Bonapartes remain in control. It is not implausible for Napoleon II to be crowned Emperor and be placed under a regency. All of the Bonaparte brothers (except one) would become Kings of neighboring nations immediately after this. The Netherlands would be returned. The King of Spain would probably try to become King of Italy or return to Sicily if Mr. Murat allows it. Westphalia would keep its Bonaparte. Austria would also have very close ties to the new Emperor. Because of this, if Napoleon II is deposed then France's former close allies would become France's enemies and see the complete collapse of everything France had built. Now I know power hungry people are not always rational, but a blind man could see that the Bonaparte kingdoms all around France would object to the deposing of their nephew. The same is true for Austria, only this time it would be a grandchild.
 
How does it matter in the slightest what the Bonaparte kingdoms think? They cannot continue for a week without the support of the new French government, and only doubtfully even wth it.

Austria is the key. Prussia is irreconcilable, and the Tsar will at least want Poland. If Austria joins them, France is toast. So Marie Louise needs to be Regent, and Franz will want at least the return of Illyria, Tyrol and Austria's half of the Duchy of Warsaw. If the French are smart, they will concede that last immediately, putting Austria directly across Russia's path, so that the Tsar has little incentive to push on into Europe. As a sweetener, his brother in law can be restored in Oldenburg. In Germany, Prussia will want her 1806 losses back, but a Franco-Austrian alliance can block that, esp if Russia sits it out. Frederick William gets Warsaw back, but that's probably about it, though if he seizes Swedish Pomerania no one else may care enough to do anything about it.

Denmark probably gets to keep Norway. Ferdinand VII of course returns to Spain. In Italy Murat may get to keep Naples, but the Habsburg Grand Gukes are probably restored in Tuscany and Modena, unless an equivalent can be found for them in Germany. Holland reverts to independence, and if Britain makes peace, presumably Hanover is restored, but France has a good chance to keep Belgium and the Rhineland.
 
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How does it matter in the slightest what the Bonaparte kingdoms thinkt? They cannot continue for a week without the support of the new French government, and only doubtfully even wth it.

Austria is the key. Prussia is irreconcilable, and the Tsar will at least want Poland. If Austria joins them, France is toast. So Marie Louise needs to be Regent, and Franz will want at least the return of Illyria, Tyrol and Austria's half of the Duchy of Warsaw. If the French are smart, they will concede that last immediately, putting Austria directly across Russia's path, so that the Tsar has little incentive to push on into Europe. As a sweetener, his brother in law can be restored in Oldenburg. In Germany, Prussia will want her 1806 losses back, but a Franco-Austrian alliance can block that, esp if Russia sits it out. Frederick William gets Warsaw back, but that's probably about it, though if he seizes Swedish Pomerania no one else may care enough to do anything about it.


Denmark probably gets to keep Norway. Ferdinand VII of course returns to Spain. In Italy Murat may get to keep Naples, but the Habsburg Grand Gukes are probably restored in Tuscany and Modena, unless an equivalent can be found for them in Germany. Holland reverts to independence, and if Britain makes peace, presumably Hanover is restored, but France has a good chance to keep Belgium and the Rhineland.

I am agreeing here, Austria and Britain are the keys here... Russia has a lot of manpower but they don t have the bankroll of even the Austrians, let alone the British.

Prussia/Russia would definitiely remain allied so Austria is going to need something to move beyond a symbolic rapprochement. A Franco/Austrian, understanding can at least during the first half of the century dominate the flow of events.

There is nothing wrong with a regency council, its not like its foreign to France....Marie-Louise most certainly, Joseph, far better as diplomat than he ever was as puppet ruler. A general or two, probably Eugene de Beauharnais, he has the connections with Bavaria, Davout would be good as the military leader, he doesn t strike me as one to meddle beyond military matters. and seems more than capable of keeping the military in line.

Louis, yes would have to go back to Holland. Poland, its in personal union with Saxony and its territories are coveted only by Prussia and Russia, I can`t remember if it had Galicia at this point as well or not, but change the constitution there and make the throne hereditary under semi-salic primogeniture and the thrones will separate with Frederick Augustus`s death. Maria Augusta should take a Romanov or Hapsburg as husband to secure its future. Rudolf would probably be a better choice than say Nicholas. and probably preferable to both the Saxons/French and Poles alike.

Murat would keep Naples probably. Sardinian Piedmont may or may not be restored to the Savoy..Britain would probably prefer it. but I am not sure it has to happen..

Jerome can`t keep Westphalia, In its shrunken state, restoration of Hannover, it should be amalgamated with Berg and given to a cadet line of the Wittelsbach, Maximilian I think.

How necessary would it be to restore the Papal states to the Pope. Maybe he could be left with the Leonine city instead and some extra territorial exclaves...and Ancona could end up with Naples, with Latium and Umbria in a Tiberina kingdom..for say oh Jerome. or perhaps Murat, if it becomes necessary to restore in its entirety the Two Sicilies to the Spanish Bourbons. Restore Venice as an Austrian client or buffer state, and give the rest of the Kingdom of Italy from Bologna and Brescia in the East to the alps in the west as an alternative Lombard kingdom for Beauharnais, if he is not in the Regency council, or Jerome or Murat. This leaves the Bonapartes effectively in France, Holland and parts of Italy and exercising considerable influence through allied states in the Confederation of the Rhine, which probably suits them just fine and gives the Spanish, the Austrians and British something for peace. Some of the French and Dutch colonies will certainly go to Britain with a few to Sweden perhaps as compensation for not getting to invade and annex Norway.

Denmark probably would keep Norway yes.
 
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How does it matter in the slightest what the Bonaparte kingdoms thinkt? They cannot continue for a week without the support of the new French government, and only doubtfully even wth it.

Austria is the key. Prussia is irreconcilable, and the Tsar will at least want Poland. If Austria joins them, France is toast. So Marie Louise needs to be Regent, and Franz will want at least the return of Illyria, Tyrol and Austria's half of the Duchy of Warsaw. If the French are smart, they will concede that last immediately, putting Austria directly across Russia's path, so that the Tsar has little incentive to push on into Europe. As a sweetener, his brother in law can be restored in Oldenburg. In Germany, Prussia will want her 1806 losses back, but a Franco-Austrian alliance can block that, esp if Russia sits it out. Frederick William gets Warsaw back, but that's probably about it, though if he seizes Swedish Pomerania no one else may care enough to do anything about it.



Denmark probably gets to keep Norway. Ferdinand VII of course returns to Spain. In Italy Murat may get to keep Naples, but the Habsburg Grand Gukes are probably restored in Tuscany and Modena, unless an equivalent can be found for them in Germany. Holland reverts to independence, and if Britain makes peace, presumably Hanover is restored, but France has a good chance to keep Belgium and the Rhineland.

Afterthoughts,,, The Hapsburgs of Tuscany are currently in Wurzburg, so if they stayed there, then Pauline could keep Tuscany..or perhaps she should go back to Lucca and let The Parma Bourbons back in Etruria. And then the Dukes of Modena could be restored in Venice I suppose, or in Further Austria, which won`t sit well with Baden or Wurttemburg, but if the Prussians are not on the Rhine border with France, the Austrians may need to be. France will need the Austrians on side on the continent if they want peace. Baden would be the big loser there, Wurttemburg perhaps not so much.
 
Afterthoughts,,, The Hapsburgs of Tuscany are currently in Wurzburg, so if they stayed there, then Pauline could keep Tuscany..or perhaps she should go back to Lucca and let The Parma Bourbons back in Etruria. And then the Dukes of Modena could be restored in Venice I suppose, or in Further Austria, which won`t sit well with Baden or Wurttemburg, but if the Prussians are not on the Rhine border with France, the Austrians may need to be. France will need the Austrians on side on the continent if they want peace. Baden would be the big loser there, Wurttemburg perhaps not so much.


Problem about Wurzburg is that it will probably have to go to Bavaria (as OTL) in compensation for handing Tyrol etc back to Austria. I assume that the latter change goes without saying.

In general, I think you're being over generous to Napoleon's brothers. Without him, my guess is that they are zilch. After all, even little Napoleon II is being kept on only for the sake of his Habsburg relatives. His Bonaparte ones, with his father gone, are just so many irrelevant nuisances. Murat, given his personality, may stand a chance of keeping his kingdom (as probably will Bernadotte), but the others will be quickly marginalised or eliminated altogether.

If France gets to keep Belgium (and imho she'd have to be very badly beaten to give it up) then Austria will want an equivalent - so Venice is probably out of luck unless Franz takes Berg and whatever's left of Westphalia in lieu.

As for Baden, Wurttemburg and other such small fry, I don't think their opinions really count. They'll do as they are [expletive deleted] well told.
 
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