The best scenario would be for Napoleon to avoid the Peninsula War and enforce the statlemate on the Continent: dominant France, quiet Eastern Powers (Austria, Russia, Prussia). It will probably force the British to ask for peace as they would be isolated from the rest of the Continent and find no one willing to rise against France.
And I don't know why, but I also always pictured a Russia allied to Napoleon if Alexander I had died and been suceeded by his brother Constantine... Constantine admired Napoleon very much: he could be disappointed by the man where he to rule, but he remained opposed to facing Napoleon before 1812. Then again, the Russian military wasn't quite okay and there is still Grand Duke Nicholas (OTL Nicholas I, younger brother to Alexander I and Constantine)...
scholar said:
Napoleon could die during the invasion of Russia, but before the army is in any signficant peril. The army withdraws and the French hastily come to terms with the Russians. Napoleon II is made Emperor of France and an entirely new dynamic of European politics is open.
You're quite optimistic. Never heard of General Mallet's plot? While it failed, it showed that the French weren't ready to proclaim Napoleon II emperor. A madman (Mallet escaped from an asylum if I recall correctly) nearly reinstuted the Republic without no one ever considering Napoleon II as a successor for his father... It's one of the reasons Napoleon returned from Russia early and became pissed afterwards.
Plus, who wants to be rulled by a child in his diapers? Only the most loyal generals to Napoleon would accept such a scenario and, sadly, none of them are really "top marshalls" except Davout and Eugene de Beauharnais. Some of the others, like Murat, were quite ambitious and versatile.
And then, there is the Bonaparte family: Joseph isn't half the man his brother was but he would want the Regency as a chance to get out of Spain, Louis will want his Netherlands back, Jerôme only thinks about festivities, Elisa doesn't care much as long as she keeps Etruria and Caroline would like to have her husband, Murat, on the throne of her brother... What a nice and caring family poor Napoleon has! The only one of his siblings that remained true to him was his sister Pauline.
And then there is Marie Louise... An Austrian princess in France? Reminds me of Marie Antoinette. Not sure if Marie Louise could freak out but she could be tempted to flee back to Austria with her son in fear for her own safety. She certainly wasn't okay with following Napoleon in exile OTL...
Wolfpaw said:
None of the Eagles wanted to see Poland free.
Well, Napoleonic France's emblem and Poland's emblem are also Eagles, so I wouldn't say "None of the Eagles" would want a free Poland.
But it's true that the Three Eagles (Prussia, Austria, Russia) won't accept a resurrected Poland. Particularly Russia as the Russians saw the Poles as some sort of threat in those times. Plus, the three powers had partitionned Poland before Napoleon came around and forced them to recreate it. With him out of the picture, who's gonna stop them from re-partitionning it again?
scholar said:
The army is still in tact, Napoleon just died shortly after war was declared.
To me, Napoleon's death would actually be a good thing for his ennemies. One of the reasons he was feared before Russia was because he was an "invicble" general.
Before the Russian Campaign, the only battle Napoleon had
personnally lost was Aspern-Essling: he won all the others, even those that where close calls (such as Eylau). With him out of the picture, the fear of facing him will disappear.
There is also a problem of chain of command at that point: Napoleon was the only leader of the
Grande Armée while he was alive. Having 600,000 men under your control is nice, but what to do if you have no one to lead them? I don't think any of Napoleon's Marshalls, be it Murat, Ney, Davout or Eugene de Beauharnais, played the role of a second-in-command: there was Napoleon above and then the Marshalls had the same rank. Who is to take the leadership of the
Grande Armée is Napoleon is out of the picture? His son is one year old and can't assume such command. Unless there is a clear leader among the Marshalls or they agree on the one to take the leadership, there are chances of squabbles. And I think that's the kind of bet Napoleon's ennemies would be ready to make, especially Britain & Russia.