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On 20 September 1527 Bona Sforza, Queen of Poland, fell from her horse during hunting party in Niepołomice Forest near Cracow. IOTL as result of that accident pregnant Bona lost her child and ability to have more. Queen herself also was close to death and was seriously ill for few weeks. So what if Queen has not survived? Sigismund I loved both his wives, so he would mourn her and not be very willing to remarry, but nobles of Poland could eventually convince him, that he should find new wife to secure future of his dynasty. Sigismund was 60 years old then, but he was man of iron health-he liked hunting, thus was physically active, very rarely was ill and had never drunk alcohol, like his father Casimir IV, grandfather Jogaila and great-grandfather Algirdas. Also, his grandfather had 3 kids in 3 years with his fourth wife, when he was at least 62-65 years old, so more Jagiellon kids are not ruled out.
But more immediately results of Bona's death are, among others, lack of election of Sigismund Augustus to the Polish throne in 1529 and his coronation following year. That was Bona's idea. For one time gain (and unnecessary one-Sigismund Augustus was only son of his father and heir to hereditary Lithuanian throne, it was obvious, that he'll succeede his dad also in Poland) she paid huge price-abolition of any future vivente rege elections and change of method of election-instead of tiny council, masses of nobles were meant to elect future kings. Although in 1527 it was already decided, that Sigismund Augustus would be Grand Duke of Lithuania-he was inthronised in 1529 in Vilnius, so even if Sigismund I remarries and has sons with his third wife, they'll be born to late to change it. So in 1548 Poland and Lithuania would not split like they usually did, when Jagiellon monarch died leaving more than one son. Without Bona Sigismund I's politics would propably be more pro-Habsburg, he would not marry his daughter to Hungarian anti-King Zapolya. Also personality of Sigismund Augustus without overprotective Bona would be quite different (much better, I think) and things like his marriage to Barbara Radziwiłł would never happen.
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