Derek Jackson said:
Shortly after the conquest of Poland Paris and London are bombed- at night.
American opinion is appalled
US either sends lots of fighter aircraft OR actually declares War.
How quickly does Nazi Germany lose.
Without Harris is there a chance that the Britian and France would NOT adopt area bombing?
The bomber school wasn't confined to Harris himself, but had widespread support, and was a reason why Harris could attract the major part of the British war effort into Bomber Command. But if we assume Harris' substitute is less efficient in draining for resources, Bomber Command will not be quite as big as in OTL (Harris took over in January 42).
If the same tactics are chosen, it will mean area bombing but with smaller areas or less density. That could be the case, as area bombing much was out of necessity. Daylight bombing had proved way to expensive and at night you couldn't expect to hit anything smaller than a big city.
You could hope however, that the limited resources also motivates some innovation in Bomber Command. In OTL Harris was allowed to think in lines of: "Well if 500 bombers doesn't do the job, then we want 1000 bombers, and if 1000 bombers doesn't work, then we need 2000....". If the 500 is all Bomber Command can possibly hope for, strength will have to be found somewhere else, and my favourite is a focus on fast twin engined precision bombers (Mosquitos). A Mosquito force in numbers similar to OTL Bomber Command will reduce the demand on aero engines by appr. 50% and the need for aircrews by 75%. My guess is that a Mosquito force half the numbers of OTL Bomber Command will be able to achieve at least the same results for the war effort, but probably better.
Added to that can be the spaved resources, for instance it will now be easier to give Coastal Command what it needs and a Tactical Airforce might be possible before.
If USA joins the allies before June 40, it will probably mean France continuing the war from the overseas possessions. That alone will have tremendous importance, not only in the added French forces, but not at least in the base network now available. With French North Africa on allied hands the Axis position in NA becomes impossible, and I doubt they can hold on into 1941, and if then in a Tunis like scenario (Axis resource drain). French NA on allied hands will also make transfer of aircraft to the Far East much quicker and easier. In OTL they until 43 had to be packed in boxes and shipped around the Cape, but now they can be flown in a few days. That alone will make defending Malaya a cause with much more hope. Next the Japanese will now have to fight for French Indochina and take it, before they can hope of attacking Malaya. If heavilly committed in Europe I doubt the allies can keep Japan out of Indochina for ever, but once North Africa is secured, I actually think they can free up enough forces and have so much better logistical situation, that they can put up an effective fight. In other words Japan will have to enter the war at least a year earlier, and even if Indochina is taken, Malaya still remains as the main hurdle, but surprise is no longer possible.
If USA wasn't involved in the war already, the Japanese could at least go for a plan where only the Europeans are attacked, but that is really impossible now. The only shadow of a weak possibility I can see for the Japanese is to attack with all fury in Indochina, Phillippines and DEI as early as possible, and no later than December 1940. Leave PH alone and count on the USN not venturing into a major Pacific crossing before they feel ready (at least six months). If the USN waits, you can hope for the battle having been decided in SEA and a diplomatic settlement possible, and if they actually sortie, then the IJN has a chance to practice the tactics it has been training for the last two decades, and against a USN not yet having been forced to rely mainly on the CV. But most probably the Japanese campaign will bog down before a good negotiation position is reached. Compared to OTL the Japanese resources are smaller (two big CV's and two big BB's less) and the allies have much more available (the French overseas + a lot of British as soon as NA is secured, the US difference between 40 and 41 isn't big compared to 41 in relation to 42 or 43). I imagine that by 42/43 latest the Japanese seek peace and are given it (no PH to avenge), but on terms meaning a Japanese withdrawal to the Japanese homeland. The European Empires remain intact.
In Europe the main danger will be the allies getting over confident and say launch a major invasion in France in 1942. I doubt if the changed TL in NA will be able to influence the East Front before 42 earliest, as the German part in NA was very small before that. But the several 100.000 men lost in OTL Tunis would be handy in defending the Reich in 43 and on.
With the freed up logistical capacity in this ATL, it might just be possible to launch major allied operations in Europe in 43, but I'm deeply concerned about the allied tactical level. A succesful allied invasion in 43 should be capable of ending the war in 44 and with the Iron Curtain descending much further east. But a failed allied invasion might also have the war go on well into 46 or 47....
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
