@dartingfog Could Ron Paul have won the 2012 GOP nomination if Hillary Clinton won in 2008? Let's say Hillary continued the Iran war but not on the same scale as McCain did. The economy is not as bad but not as good as otl 2012 either largely becaus of the continuing Iran war. Ron Paul wins the GOP nomination by criticizing the economy and the war. He gets support from anti-war Democrats who largely abandon Kucinich's primary challenge.
Possibly. I think Paul could have won the nomination by appealing to the same people that Trump did in 2016, especially white, working-class Democrats. If Republicans can hold the failure to win in Iran over Hillary, I think Paul in such a scenario could go on to win the election.
Since we've brought this great thread back...
@dartingfog - Do you think the chance the United States goes to war with Iran has increased with President Elect Trump? For that matter how do you think a 2018 U.S.-Iranian War would play out? With currently low gas prices I have a feeling the economic downturn wouldn't be as bad since gas prices would have quite a bit to rise. Or who knows maybe we are one recession away from China's economy collapsing or something.
In brief, yes I think a war with Iran is definitely possible. In fact, I'd say it's potentially more likely than if Cheney/McCain had been President. I hope my TL does not come true! The only reason I see to suggest that such a war won't happen is because of Russia's influence on Trump. I don't think Putin would be in favor of such an invasion.
My guess it would play out more or less the same way, just add 10 years. US and Iranian capabilities probably haven't changed much in that time (I say this with a caveat that I'm no expert). It will still be a long, difficult war (unless Trump is serious about using nukes). An economic collapse in the middle of it is quite possible, given the debt spending needed to pay for such a war, along with pending deregulation of Wall Street. And with Trump's personality, I would expect a very punitive response (as bad or worse than the one I wrote about) to the inevitable anti-war movement.
