Bolsheviks refuse to sign Treaty of Brest-Litovsk

[Cregan]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Brest-Litovsk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Faustschlag

"While Lenin wanted to accept the initial German peace proposal immediately, a majority of the Bolshevik Central Committee disagreed. The "Left Communists", led by Nikolai Bukharin and Karl Radek, believed that Germany, Austria, Turkey, and Bulgaria were all on the verge of revolution. They wanted to continue the war while awaiting revolutions in those countries."

"Frustrated with continued German demands for cessions of territory, Trotsky announced a new policy. Russia unilaterally declared an end of hostilities against the Central Powers, and Russia withdrew from peace negotiations with the Central Powers - a position summed up as 'no war — no peace'. Other Bolshevik leaders denounced Trotsky for exceeding his instructions and exposing Soviet Russia to the threat of invasion. Trotsky subsequently defended his action on the grounds that the Bolshevik leaders had originally entered the peace talks in the hope of exposing their enemies' territorial ambitions and rousing the workers of central Europe to revolution in defense of Russia's new workers' state."

"The consequences for the Bolsheviks were worse than what they had feared in December 1917. The Central Powers repudiated the armistice on 18 February 1918, and in the next fortnight seized most of Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic countries in Operation Faustschlag. A German fleet approached the Gulf of Finland and Russia's capital Petrograd. Despite strikes and demonstrations the month before in protest against economic hardship, the workers of Germany failed to rise up against their government. On 23 February 1918, the Central Powers sent new terms for peace - (i.e. the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk)."

"The Central Powers required that these new terms be agreed to within 48 hours. Lenin again pressed for acceptance of these terms...As the German offensive was ongoing, Trotsky returned to Petrograd. Most of the Bolshevik leadership still preferred continuing the war, even though Russia was in no position to do so, due to the destruction of its army. At this point Lenin intervened to push the Soviet leadership into acceptance of German terms, which by now had become even harsher. He was backed by other senior communists including Kamenev, Zinoviev, and Stalin. After a stormy session of Lenin's ruling council, during which the revolution's leader went so far as to threaten resignation, he obtained a 166 to 85 vote in favour of the new German terms. The vote in the Central Committee was even closer, seven in favour and six against. In the end, Trotsky switched his vote and the new German terms were accepted."

"Thus the new Soviet government agreed to terms worse than those they had previously rejected."

WI Lenin's pro-treaty policy is outvoted by the Central Committee and the Bolsheviks still refuse to sign the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk?

Will Lenin actually resign?

Obviously, the Central Powers then continue their advance across Western Russia. In the face of this, how do the Bolsheviks deal with the advancing German and Austrian armies and the German fleet threatening Petrograd? What was the oppositionist (Bukharin/Radek/the Left-Communist) military plan alongside waiting for revolutions in Europe? How does Trotsky's "no war, no peace" plan fare?

Another thing is that with no Treaty of Brest-Litovsk the Left SRs are unlikely to revolt and breakaway from the Bolsheviks, which butterflies away the SR terrorism/assassination campaign against the Bolshevik leadership (attempted assassinations of Lenin, Trotsky, etc) and thus prevents the start of the Red Terror in response at that time.

 

[Napoleon IV]

The Bolsheviks probably collapse. The war was incredibly unpopular, and by continuing it (even if it's Trotsky's "no war, no peace" plan) the Bolsheviks would lose popularity. Plus, the Germans would probably help the Whites out and could even take Petrograd (which would be a major loss for the Bolsheviks).

 

[CrimsonKing]

This could be interesting if the effort of finishing off the Bolsheviks weakens the Germans' ability to transfer forces west for the 1918 offensive.

 

[Cregan]

The Bolsheviks probably collapse. The war was incredibly unpopular, and by continuing it (even if it's Trotsky's "no war, no peace" plan) the Bolsheviks would lose popularity. Plus, the Germans would probably help the Whites out and could even take Petrograd (which would be a major loss for the Bolsheviks).

So the oppositionists never really had a military plan to support their refusal to sign the treaty? In that case, they should have just taken the original CP terms in December 1917.

 

[David T]

The Left Communists acknowledged that conventional resistance to the Germans was futile but favored guerrilla warfare. Would that have worked?

Some evidence that it would not: in August 1918 a Bolshevik-organized revolt against the Germans in Ukraine was a complete failure. "In the Poltava province, where the Bolsheviks had counted on scores of thousands of peasants to take up arms, only one hundred obeyed their call; in most of the remaining regions, there was no response at all. " Richard Pipes, *The Formation of the Soviet Union,* p. 136. https://books.google.com/books?id=smDy35onbtAC&pg=PA136

To be sure, the Germans were incapable of occupying all of Russia. In OTL, "General Max Hoffmann, the German commander on the Eastern Front, noted bitterly in his diary that despite the fact that his forces faced no opposition whatever, he would have to call an end to their advance. 'I should have no objection', he wrote, 'to pushing farther and farther eastwards. I should like to get to India except that the distances grow more immense, and our army does not.'" http://web.archive.org/web/20030310182535/http://scottreid.com/lenin.htm#anchor244115
But *if* the Germans were determined to take both Petrograd and Moscow, they could. And it is hard for me to see the Bosheviks staying in power by losing their two main cities, and retreating to the Urals and Siberia where the Socialist Revolutionary Party was still strong.

My own guess about what would happen if Lenin had not prevailed when he did: After the Germans had captured Petrograd and threatened Moscow, the Bolsheviks would *finally* agree to sign the treaty--and the Germans would insist on even more concessions...

 

[Cregan]

But if the Germans push all the way to Petrograd and Moscow, wouldn't that significantly weaken their coming offensive on the Western Front?

It seems like the Bolsheviks are doomed if they don't sign the BL treaty.

 

[Tizoc]

Post Brest-Litovsk Germans kept pushing eastwards anyway - by June 1918 they were reaching Noworossijsk on Black Sea. So I don't think continued war would have that much influence on Western Front.