Boll weevil hits South in the 1840s

Hurts it badly. The boll weevil will cut cotton production anywhere from 1/3 and 1/2. Because of this the price of slaves will drop. VA made its money mostly by selling its slaves south. The drop of price in slaves willl make that business unproftible and they will cut their losses by selling their slaves as quickly as possible south because slaves cost a lot of maintainance and they can't afford waiting for higher prices. So by 1860 VA will probably have about as many slaves in KY and Md had in OTL. This means VA will probably stay in the Uinon if war breaks out. Without VA the CSA is in trouble from the start. It will curb Southern arrogance. There can be no arguments about how "Cotton is king" if you don't have cotton to sell. Unemployment will rise which will probably cause a lot of poor whites to grumble about compteting against slave labor.
 
Cotton prices were at historical lows in the 1840s, and didn't really start rising until the early 1850s. Because of this, the Deep South is less focused on cotton than it would be later, but the boll weevil is still going to hurt the economy of the Deep South. Agriculture is more diversified in the Upper South (Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, northern Arkansas) and focused far more on corn and tobacco than on cotton.

Deep South planters will be forced to diversify, which will reduce soil exhaustion in the long run. Cotton production will move to more weevil resistant varieties, which are lower quality, reducing competitiveness in international markets, and helping the economies of Egypt and India. Slave prices will be lower than in OTL, and less slaves will be illegally imported in to US.

None of this will reduce southern views about slaves and abolition. There is a good chance that secession is attempted anyway, but they'll know they don't have the economic clout to force international recognition. Weaker pre-war economy probably means an inferior rail network to OTL.
 
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