Bolivia wins the Chaco War

The Chaco War saw Bolivia and Paraguay do battle over control of the northern part of the Gran Chaco region between 1932 and 1935. Paraguay was the victor and got most of the disputed area. Let's say that the Battle of Boquerón is a Bolivian victory and the Bolivians aren't forced to retreat so when the rest of the Bolivian military is mobilized in December the Bolivians are able to capture succesfully capture Fortín Nanawa and break the back of the Paraguayan defense thus allowing the Bolivians to capture Concepción. The war continues for another year, but the Paraguayans are broken and forced to surrender the contested region over to Bolivia. So what happens to Bolivia and Paraguay after the war?
 
Bolivia is left disappointed by the uselessness of its newly acquired territory. Both are even more comprehensively wrecked than they were in OTL, given the scale of the sacrifice both had made. For Bolivia to win, it requires more manpower, more casualties, and more debt.

Expect a severely revanchist Paraguay which aligns itself with 'anybody willing to put one up Bolivia'. Given a comprehensive enough Bolivian victory, the two countries would possibly end up glowering at eachother over the River Paraguay. It would require further massive investment by Bolivia to make a) the Chaco defensible and b) bring enough settlers into the Chaco to meaningfully occupy it. Any future war will be hugely in a militarised Paraguay's favour, given that the Paraguayan population centres are directly across the river, while Bolivia would still have to transport troops from the Andes.

On the other hand, Bolivia would have a theoretical outlet to the sea down the River Paraguay (Huzzah! cry the Bolivians), which may work in its favour in terms of trade and accessibility. There are already transport routes across the region, which will have been developed during the war. So, potentially, a trade boom for Bolivia if it can hold the territory in question.

Frankly, though, the most optimistic outcome for the Bolivians is a partition of the Chaco somewhere nearer the middle. Bear in mind, the Paraguayans have (and will) fight tenaciously: if history is anything to go by, the Paraguayan population doesn't do war by half. Most likely, the two exhausted sides agree to a partition that gives each something out of the fight, and possibly direct Bolivian access to the River Paraguay in the north into the bargain.
 
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How are Bolivians supposed to get to Conception? It's ~200 km from Boqueron in straight line. Through hot, dry, roadless country. Not mentioning that even if Bolivians got to the bank of Rio Paraguay, there's still the matter of crossing it - under the fire of Paraguayan navy. Marching at Asuncion makes more sense - at least there's Rio Pilcomayo close by. And even then Bolivians will be struggling with supplying their forces. To be honest, even with victories at Boqueron and Nanawa, Bolivians will have trouble advancing - logistics in TO were much more favorable for Paraguayans. If there'll be a Bolivain victory, it'd be more out of Paraguayans not being able to dislodge Bolivians from Chaco than anything.
 
Tizoc said:
To be honest, even with victories at Boqueron and Nanawa, Bolivians will have trouble advancing - logistics in TO were much more favorable for Paraguayans. If there'll be a Bolivain victory, it'd be more out of Paraguayans not being able to dislodge Bolivians from Chaco than anything.

Pretty much. That's rather why I think the best the Bolivians might expect from the war is a somewhat more favourable stalemate. It would take an incredible mobilisation of their economy and manpower resources to win outright.
 

Tamandaré

Banned
What about a eager Bolivia winning and deciding that since they got the Chaco, they might do a encore and team up with Peru to fight Chile?
 
I'd doubt that would be a viable option any time in the short-medium term. Even a victorious Bolivia will have been stretched to the utmost of its capacity.

No doubt a victory against Paraguay will act as a galvanising internal force, but you'll be looking at, fundamentally, an exhausted country. And it's one thing fighting tiny (if fanatically brave) Paraguay - it's another thing altogether going toe to toe with Chile, even with Peruvian help.
 
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