Bolivia joins Paraguay against the Triple Alliance

In 1866, while Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay were involved in the War of the Triple Alliance against Paraguay, Mariano Melgarejo, the dictator of Bolivia, threatened to send a military force to help Solano Lopez. The Brazilian government reacted quickly, and sent a diplomatic mission to La Paz. After some negotiations, which included to give two white horses and four medals of honour to Melgarejo, the Brazilian mission ensured the Bolivian neutrality in the conflict. Also, they made Melgarejo sign a treaty which recognized the Brazilian possession of a huge litigious are on the border of both countries.

However, WI Melgarejo had been more stubborn and had declared war against the Triple Alliance, creating two more fronts, in Northern Argentina and in Mato Grosso? How would this affect the war?
 
I can see this ending very badly for Bolivia, or South America in general, since this could become a far wider conflict.
 
It's kind like what Frederick II, the German Emperor said about the Russo-Turkish War: "a war between the one-eyed and the blind". Paraguay was an one-eyed dwarf, Brazil and Argentina were blind giants, Uruguay was just cheering... Bolivia would be another blind in this war, a blind dwarf.
 
Chile might support the Triple Alliance.

You could merge the War of the Pacific with the War of the Triple Alliance and have a Great South American War

Thing is, it would probably draw in European involvement, especially on the West coast, or the East...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
You could merge the War of the Pacific with the War of the Triple Alliance and have a Great South American War

Thing is, it would probably draw in European involvement, especially on the West coast, or the East...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
That's what I was thinking. It might be interesting to consider how Peru would react, I don't know if they were still close (or if they were close at all) with Argentina...
 
That's what I was thinking. It might be interesting to consider how Peru would react, I don't know if they were still close (or if they were close at all) with Argentina...

At that time no country in South America was close to the Triple Alliance. Lopez had a lot of symphaties from the other countries. That's the reason the same Brazilian mission to Bolivia was also sent to Chile, Peru and Ecuador, it was necessary to ensure their neutrality. However, if Bolivia declares war I think they could try to turn neutrality into alliance. How were the relations between Bolivia, Chile and Peru at that time? And the Chilean-Argentine relations?
 
That's what I was thinking. It might be interesting to consider how Peru would react, I don't know if they were still close (or if they were close at all) with Argentina...

It would seem that Peru and possibly Chile would be distracted by war with Spain. On the other hand, if Bolivia enters the War of the Possibly-More-Than-Triple Alliance with the proper timing, Chile's involvement in the Chincha Islands dispute could be avoided in order to make a rather opportunistic grab at the guano coast. That might just keep the Spanish hovering around the scene, and their dispute with Peru merging with the larger South American conflict.
 
It would seem that Peru and possibly Chile would be distracted by war with Spain. On the other hand, if Bolivia enters the War of the Possibly-More-Than-Triple Alliance with the proper timing, Chile's involvement in the Chincha Islands dispute could be avoided in order to make a rather opportunistic grab at the guano coast. That might just keep the Spanish hovering around the scene, and their dispute with Peru merging with the larger South American conflict.

Gah, I forgot that war!
Melgarejo sent the letter to Lopez promising him military help in June, and so after the Battle of Callao, when the Spanish had already withdrawn from the region. However, there is the fact that while Chile, Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador closed their ports to the Spanish, Argentina and Brazil, which were also requested it, refused to do so.

Maybe, if we can keep the diplomatical alignment of the Pacific countries, the we could see Chile joining Bolivia and Paraguay, and the conflict would become the War of the Triple Alliances. Argentina would be in a much worse position, and if they decide to withdraw from the conflict Brazil can't keep the fight.
 
The border between Bolivia and Argentina is an extremely difficult terrain for warfare. At that time the infrastructure in the region was IIRC very poor as well, posing major logistical problems to large offensives. So I guess the front can stabilize as the defending side can hold whatever the other side can throw there. The country that's smart enough to take a defensive stance, or can't mobilize their forces in time will probably hold the line while the other wastes the lives of thousands of young people. Since Bolivia is declaring war, I guess they'll take a heavy toll in the opening months. Whether the Argentinean vice president, Marcos Paz (Mitre was leading the troops fighting in the Paraguayan front) sees that or amasses whatever forces available for a counteroffensive is an open question. If he orders an offensive I think we might see a replay of the Independence War offensives and counteroffensives in the region with better armament: A useless waste of life and resources in with neither side can achieve a decisive victory.
The key player is Chile. Depending on the timing the War with Spain might be already over and Chile has a navy witch Argentina can't match. Brazil can but, given the distances involved, the issue is the reaction time. Furthermore in OTL a large rebellion occurred in Mendoza in late 1866. Also, since it would also be Chile the one declaring war, it's safe to assume that they would be ready to cross the Andes shortly after that - and the troops in the border are those rebelling. I see the Chilenean Navy seizing Tierra del Fuego to set up a naval base there ASAP, with the Imperial Navy engaging the Chilenean Navy some time after that. No idea of who can be victorious there. The other point is how Chile would act regarding Argentinean officers and citizens in rebellion or bound to rebel and vice versa. I do think that a Chilenean invasion would make loyal and rebel forces in Argentina sort of leave aside their differences against a common foe. And I mean "sort of" because it's a good opportunity for Mitre/Marcos Paz to get rid of them by simply using them as cannon fodder. On the other hand Chile can try to take advantage of the political climate in Argentina to foster rebellions and restart the Argentinean civil war.
Spain might also add their weight to the war, offering assistance to the (original) Triple Alliance, since they've finished fighting a war with Chile and Peru. For a lot of Argentineans, including those in the establishment, an alliance with Brazil and Spain would be a really uneasy exercise of realpolitk. Especially if Brazilian and/or Spanish soldiers are deployed in large numbers in Argentinean soil to counter the Chilenean invasion from the West.
I think that the situation has a small chance to put Argentina in the peace negotiation table. But I'm not sure if it would be enough without large rebellions in the country and those rebellions might precisely not happen if the rebels think they would be playing for a foreign country. Even if Chile defeats the Brazilian Navy and succeeds in their offensive in the Argentinean center west it doesn't yet have the political impact to convince hardliners. Plus, with Brazil as an ally, Argentina can field the necesary amount of troops to contain it. And if Chile gets as far as Córdoba, why would they sit to negotiate? And if they don't the war can continue for years. I guess the only way to end it fast would be a phyric Chilenean victory in Mendoza/San Juan and a phyric Brazilian naval victory near Tierra del Fuego. That way the Argentinean politics might feel scared enough to negotiate while the Chileneans might not want to loose Tierra del Fuego and might feel that they are vulnerable to a counterattack. If such a peace negotiation includes Paraguay, even if Brazil doesn't sign it - and the Emperor wouldn't feel any need to do so - the war in Paraguay also is forced to end: neither Paraguayans nor Brazilians would be able to fight each other much without being able to get across Argentina
 
You could merge the War of the Pacific with the War of the Triple Alliance and have a Great South American War

Thing is, it would probably draw in European involvement, especially on the West coast, or the East...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

And if that happens it would be very interesting to see how the US, in the years immediately after the ACW, reacts: that is, with the struggle to reconstitute the nation, would the Monroe Doctrine be invoked? Would this somehow serve to reunite the nation, or would it keep the wounds fresh?

Also, who gets involved from Europe? Are we talking about a struggle by proxy of Great Britain against France here? That's about all I can see, given that Prussia was not especially interested in involvement outside its immediate sphere of influence, and the same can be said for the Habsburg Empire. OK, maybe Spain might make one last attempt at some measure of glory, but that's a stretch. Italy is too new as a unified nation to look for foreign adventures.
 
...
Spain might also add their weight to the war, offering assistance to the (original) Triple Alliance, since they've finished fighting a war with Chile and Peru. For a lot of Argentineans, including those in the establishment, an alliance with Brazil and Spain would be a really uneasy exercise of realpolitk. Especially if Brazilian and/or Spanish soldiers are deployed in large numbers in Argentinean soil to counter the Chilenean invasion from the West...

I don't think there would be any Spanish soldiers deployed on land, if Spain ever becomes involved it would probably be a small naval force. Also, despite the Monroe Doctrine, would the USA really care about a war happening in the other side of the hemisphere just two years after the end of the ACW?
 
I don't think there would be any Spanish soldiers deployed on land, if Spain ever becomes involved it would probably be a small naval force. Also, despite the Monroe Doctrine, would the USA really care about a war happening in the other side of the hemisphere just two years after the end of the ACW?
Care or not, they won't be able to do anything: France et al managed to invade Mexico and install a puppet Emperor, right on the US border.
 
Plus, they didn't do anything about the war between Chile and Peru against Spain that ended in 1866.
Regarding the Spanish navy, they were just defeated/forced to leave the continent (depending on point of view). Might they make a come back, perhaps to save face, if the Chilenean navy is defeated?
 
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