Bockscar shot down over kokura?

The inevitable is delyaed by roughly two weeks.

The heavey parts for Fat Man #2 were already at Tinian and the core was to be shipped 8/11.

Full House (IIRC that was Bockscar's standby aircraft in case of any mechanical problems) delivers the third bomb at Kokura on 8/17 or 8/18 (the planned dates) and sparing Nagasaki, one of my favorite cities.

The phrase "Kokura's luck" in Japanese now means "to have a nuance of getting in a last luck shot before getting horribly wrecked" rather than "luckily escaping a terrible fate without knowing the danger".

Maybe the most important fallout is the Soviets might end up grabbing a bigger part, if not all of, Korea. (Given the Red Army has sufficient time to remobilized and secured the entire peninsula, assuming the Inchon landings are either delayed or don't happen.)
 
How?

The Nuclear delivering B-29 where special versions that were more lightweight, flew higher and faster than the original ones, the original ones that almost no Japanese fighter could reach ...

And Japanese fuel was tight enough so that they were no longer scrambling planes for single planes.

What about if we just have a mechanical failure of some sort?
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Not to mention the fact that there was a weather aircraft that was an hour ahead of the bomb aircraft. If you scramble for the singleton you will go after the weather bird and alert the main package. There were P-51s on Okinawa that could be surged to Kyushu.
 
And Japanese fuel was tight enough so that they were no longer scrambling planes for single planes.

What about if we just have a mechanical failure of some sort?

By the accounts I've read, fighters were scrambled and spotted coming up to meet the three aircraft by the third run. A decision to drop below the cloud cover for the final run could bring them in range.

Also, while not exactly the OP, AAA was zeroing in on them as well.

Mechanical failure would also be a possibility, as there were already problems with a fuel transfer pump and with the firing circuit on the device.

Not to mention the fact that there was a weather aircraft that was an hour ahead of the bomb aircraft. If you scramble for the singleton you will go after the weather bird and alert the main package. There were P-51s on Okinawa that could be surged to Kyushu.

The weather birds (there were two - Up an' Atom and Laggin' Dragon) only made one pass, IIRC. Bockscar and the others made three passes, giving time to for fighters to start up in the OTL.

IMHO, the best means of acheiving this scenario would be swapping the problems with a fuel transfer pump and with the firing circuit on the device for an in-flight problem resulting in forcing the mission lower and a golden BB taking her down.
 
Every time I see a thread like this, I want to start mashing my head on the keyboard and screaming about the lack of backup plans. Does that make me a bad person?
 
Every time I see a thread like this, I want to start mashing my head on the keyboard and screaming about the lack of backup plans. Does that make me a bad person?

Did you mean backup plans like having a secondary target and having the 3rd bomb in route as soon as was possible or did you have something else in mind?
 
Did you mean backup plans like having a secondary target and having the 3rd bomb in route as soon as was possible or did you have something else in mind?

No, just showing my age - a while back there was a chap who made an insane thread about the Enola Gay's bomb failing to detonate, recovering the bomb, reverse-engineeering it with the aid of German scientists who arrived by U-boat after the German surrender, and using atomic weapons to conquer first the USA and then the rest of the world. When it was pointed out that he was batshit insane (that's a technical term), he kept banging on about how the US "had no backup plan" for the war.

If you want to stress-test your faith in humanity, take a look at it here.
 
I'm lost for words, just totally lost for words.

Inspiring stuff, isn't it? I'm glad some of our newer members weren't around then, we might have lost them prematurely to strokes when Eleven11 really got going. Nuclear power is a hoax perpetrated by Jewish conspirators? Really?
 
I didn't get to that bit, I only managed about 3 1/2 pages before stopping.

As for the actual topic, Osakadave got it, the Japanese get a few weeks to theorise on what the bomber was doing before they find out the hard way.
 

Goldwater64

Banned
If you want to stress-test your faith in humanity, take a look at it here.

It's like a bloody car accident... It's completely and utterly horrible, yet I can't stop looking... :eek:

But I digress...

On the topic, I don't think it'd make any drastic changes. The bomb would likely be destroyed in the ensuing crash, and even if not, the Japanese had no reason to suspect it was anything out of the ordinary.
 

Cook

Banned
When bockscar flies over kokura (primary target) it is shot down by scrambled fighters. What happens?
The Soviet Union invasion of Manchuria on August 9th, and the threat of imminent Soviet invasion of the Japanese home islands was of greater significance than the atomic bombing in the considerations of the Japanese war cabinet’s decision to surrender, so in all likelihood the only difference is that only one Japanese city is destroyed by an atomic bomb and the Emperor radios his surrender on 15th August as per OTL.
 
The Soviet Union invasion of Manchuria on August 9th, and the threat of imminent Soviet invasion of the Japanese home islands was of greater significance than the atomic bombing in the considerations of the Japanese war cabinet’s decision to surrender, so in all likelihood the only difference is that only one Japanese city is destroyed by an atomic bomb and the Emperor radios his surrender on 15th August as per OTL.

I'm not so sure every thing goes exactly the same, even if you are completely correct about the reasoning. The cabinet was still debating, and knowing Japanese, might still have been hung up without McDilda's fabulous lie or Tanaka may have failed in convincing the rebellious officers to return to their barracks.

I stand by my earlier claim that this still results in a 2nd bomb and possibly more Soviet control of Korea.
 
Maybe the most important fallout is the Soviets might end up grabbing a bigger part, if not all of, Korea. (Given the Red Army has sufficient time to remobilized and secured the entire peninsula, assuming the Inchon landings are either delayed or don't happen.)

No, not really. I don't think a week or even a few weeks will matter much there.

The Soviets had plenty of time IIRC in real life to occupy entire Korea, but chose not to do so because the US told them so.

(I know, it's amazing Stalin actually for once did what his Western allies wanted him to do without direct military presence forcing him :eek:).

At least, according to Max Hastings in "The Korean War".
 
(I know, it's amazing Stalin actually for once did what his Western allies wanted him to do without direct military presence forcing him :eek:).
Not that amazing really, he knew what the Americans were capable of, knew he couldn't match it, and didn't want to (possibly) experience it.
 
Top