Bob Hawke dies at the age of seventeen

"At the age of seventeen, the same age that his brother Neil had died, Hawke had a serious accident while riding his Panther motorcycle that left him in a critical condition for several days. This near-death experience acted as his catalyst, driving him to make the most of his talents and not let his abilities go to waste..." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Hawke

So suppose Hawke had died at a young age. Does Bill Hayden remain leader of the Australian Labor Party and become Prime Minister in 1983 (Hayden famously said that a "drover's dog" could win the election)?

(And yes, obviously this post was prompted by Hawke's death today...)
 
Hayden wins but probably with a smaller margin than Hawke’s.

Economic policy-wise, the Hayden government would probably be similar to OTL. Hayden was after all a proponent of the idea that the ALP had to have economic credibility.

Perhaps an earlier Keating Prime Ministership?
 
Look earlier. He was a big union man. Changes there... In 1975 in that ABC documentary, there is a whiff of suspicion that he hung Whitlam out to dry to prepare the ground for his own tilt... Who will hold the Oxford beer drinking record?
 
If ACTU cases are handled differently in the 1960s you might see anything from higher real wages and an unseated liberal government through to lower real wages and an “O’Shea” moment by 1964.

Lots of changes before the 1980s.

ObWI: O’Dea doesn’t die and ACSPA strikes for 1937 white to blue collar margins based on the professional engineers case.
 
Hayden wins but probably with a smaller margin than Hawke’s.

Economic policy-wise, the Hayden government would probably be similar to OTL. Hayden was after all a proponent of the idea that the ALP had to have economic credibility.

Perhaps an earlier Keating Prime Ministership?

Fraser thought that he could beat Hayden even with the bad economy at the time, but doubted that he could beat Hawke. Without Hawke, Frazer would not have gone a year early so he had about a year for the economy to do something. If up, I would say Frazer would have won.

Many of the economic reforms that Hawke did were actually planned by Frazer and Howard earlier and Hawke decided to continue with them but what Hawke did was push them much more then Frazer would have. So economically policy-wise, I think it would have been roughly halfway between what Frazer did early and Hawke. The big problem that Frazer, unlike Hawke, could not do is "the prices and income accord" with its effect on the wages spiral. On the other hand, Frazer addressed much better the problem of massive government spending with the Razor gang. Hawke disagreed with this policy but ended out basically having to do something like this too.

PS I knew Bob Hawke slightly but he did not know me but regularly we said hello and nodded at each other.
 
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