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The POD is Clinton's affair with Lewinsky coming out in June of 1996. Clinton denies the affair, then in October of '96 it is revealed that Clinton lied about it and while the GOP criticizes the President, they don't shoot themselves in the foot in the process, and Bob Dole wins a close election:
Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/ Secretary Jack F. Kemp (R-NY) 47.9% PV 286 EV President William J. Clinton (D-AR)/ Vice President Albert A. Gore Jr. (D-TN) 46% PV 252 EV Billionaire Henry R. Perot (Reform-TX)/ Economist Pat Choate (Reform-DC) 4.4%PV 0 EV
Here's my take on the Presidency on the United States after a Dole win in 1996:
43. Bob Dole (Republican): 1997-2001
44. Jack Kemp (Republican): 2001-2009
45. Joe Biden (Democratic): 2009- Present