Bob Dole wins in '96

[dw93]

The POD is Clinton's affair with Lewinsky coming out in June of 1996. Clinton denies the affair, then in October of '96 it is revealed that Clinton lied about it and while the GOP criticizes the President, they don't shoot themselves in the foot in the process, and Bob Dole wins a close election:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/ Secretary Jack F. Kemp (R-NY) 47.9% PV 286 EV
President William J. Clinton (D-AR)/ Vice President Albert A. Gore Jr. (D-TN) 46% PV 252 EV
Billionaire Henry R. Perot (Reform-TX)/ Economist Pat Choate (Reform-DC) 4.4%PV 0 EV

Here's my take on the Presidency on the United States after a Dole win in 1996:

43. Bob Dole (Republican): 1997-2001
44. Jack Kemp (Republican): 2001-2009
45. Joe Biden (Democratic): 2009- Present

 

[dw93]

The 2000 Election:

The economy is booming and things are stable abroad. President Dole declines to seek re election due to his age. Vice President Kemp runs virtually un opposed for the Presidency. He selects Governor George W. Bush to be his running mate.

The Democratic field had Former VP Al Gore, House minority leader Dick Gephardt, Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, and Former Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey. Vice President Gore won his party's nomination and picked Governor Jeanine Shaheen of New Hampshire to be his running mate.

With the economy booming, peace abroad, and a scandal free administration, the voters rewarded the GOP with another term in the White House and small gains in both houses of congress:

Vice President Jack F. Kemp (R-NY)/ Governor George W. Bush (R-TX) 50. 5% PV 321 EV
Fmr. Vice President Albert A. Gore Jr.(D-TN)/ Governor Jeanine Shaheen (D-NH) 46.5% PV 213 EV

 

[dw93]

2004

The 2004 Election:

President Kemp had a successful first term in office in the eyes of the voters. By the 2004 election, the economy had recovered nicely from the recession of 2001 that was brought about due to the dot com bubble burst and worsened by the September 11th attacks. President Kemp signed two tax cuts, one $200 billion tax cut in 2001 and a $1.5 trillion cut in 2003. He also passed education reform. In response to the 9/11 attacks, President Kemp invaded Afghanistan and had the Taliban regime that gave Al Qaeda safe haven overthrown. The military had also captured and killed Osama Bin Laden in December of 2001 in Tora Bora. Democracy was established, Afghan soldiers were trained by the United States to fight off any insurgents, and the U.S. officially ended its combat mission there in Mid 2004. Even though some hawks within the President's party, including Vice President Bush, wanted an invasion of Iraq on the premise that they had weapons of mass destruction, President Kemp chose not to, as weapons inspectors who were sent in late 2002 found that there were no WMDS in Iraq.

President Kemp was overwhelmingly re nominated by his party.

On the Democratic side, Senator Joe Lieberman, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, Governor Howard Dean of Vermont, and Senator Bob Graham of Florida ran for their party's nomination.

Senator Lieberman won the nomination, picking Senator Bob Graham as his running mate.

Due to an improving economy, the highest homeownership in history, and the success in Afghanistan, President Kemp was re elected by an even more decisive margin than in 2000:

President Jack F. Kemp (R-NY)/ Vice President George W. Bush (R-TX) 51.2% PV 355 EV
Senator Joseph I. "Joe" Lieberman (D-CT)/ Senator Daniel Robert "Bob" Graham (D-FL) 45.5% PV 183 EV

 

[Wildcard F. Kennedy]

The POD is Clinton's affair with Lewinsky coming out in June of 1996. Clinton denies the affair, then in October of '96 it is revealed that Clinton lied about it and while the GOP criticizes the President, they don't shoot themselves in the foot in the process, and Bob Dole wins a close election:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/ Secretary Jack F. Kemp (R-NY) 47.9% PV 286 EV
President William J. Clinton (D-AR)/ Vice President Albert A. Gore Jr. (D-TN) 46% PV 252 EV
Billionaire Henry R. Perot (Reform-TX)/ Economist Pat Choate (Reform-DC) 4.4%PV 0 EV

Clinton still has that charisma, reguardless of how the GOP handle the fallout from the affair. All Bill has to do is flip Florida, Penn., or Ohio and he's back. Futher, Dole looked old and haggard, and had little personality. A still somewhat young and charismatic Clinton, scandal or no, pushes back the challenge.

 

[dw93]

Clinton still has that charisma, reguardless of how the GOP handle the fallout from the affair. All Bill has to do is flip Florida, Penn., or Ohio and he's back. Futher, Dole looked old and haggard, and had little personality. A still somewhat young and charismatic Clinton, scandal or no, pushes back the challenge.

I know he has that charisma, but can he honestly push back the challenge after the truth comes out a month or even less than a month before the election? The main reason he survived the scandal OTL in the first place was because the GOP had gone too far, especially with the impeachment. Even with that, while Clinton's job approval ratings stayed high, his personal approval ratings took a hit as a result of the whole thing. If the GOP doesn't act like a bunch of prudish dumbasses in response to the revelations and they play their cards right, I think they could win it by a squeaker.

 

[fred1451]

I know he has that charisma, but can he honestly push back the challenge after the truth comes out a month or even less than a month before the election? The main reason he survived the scandal OTL in the first place was because the GOP had gone too far, especially with the impeachment. Even with that, while Clinton's job approval ratings stayed high, his personal approval ratings took a hit as a result of the whole thing. If the GOP doesn't act like a bunch of prudish dumbasses in response to the revelations and they play their cards right, I think they could win it by a squeaker.

Considering Bob Dole's '96 Campaign can be best summed up as "Bob Dole says, "Bob Dole isn't Bill Clinton." I think even with the scandal breaking right before the election there is no way Clinton could lose. I sometimes wonder if the Contract with America wasn't supposed to be the '96 election platform that they introduced early so the Dems couldn't call it that, and it worked better than they ever dreamed.

 

[dw93]

2008

The 2008 Election:

Things went south fast for President Kemp. 2005 saw the failure of the President's proposals to reform Social Security and in August of that year, a Hurricane hit the Gulf Coast, and due to cuts to FEMA as well as a poor choice to head FEMA as well as a poor response from state and local governments, New Orleans was in chaos and President Kemp was blamed for it. Due to the failed response to the Hurricane as well as the failure of Kemp's other reforms to get passed congress, the Democratic Party took control of both houses of congress for the first time in 12 years. 2007 saw a slow down in the housing market, which was booming and in December 2007, the economy entered recession.

Vice President Bush sought the Republican nomination. However, unlike with President Kemp 8 years earlier, Bush didn't go unchallenged. He faced a challenge from Senator John McCain of Arizona, and Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. After a long fought primary, Vice President Bush secured the nomination. To bring the ticket ideological damage, the Vice President chose Senator John McCain to he his running mate. President Kemp endorsed Bush, but did not campaign for him due to medical reasons.

The Democratic side saw a larger field of candidates that included Senator Joe Biden of Delaware, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, Senator and Former First Lady Hillary Rodham of Illinois, Congressman Barack Obama of Illinois, and Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico. Senator Joe Biden won the nomination. Biden chose Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana to be his running mate.

With the economic recession and with the Russian invasion of Georgia, Senator Biden held a slight lead in the polls over Vice President Bush. Then came September of 2008. Due to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the economic recession turned into an economic crisis. This, along with poor debate performances by Vice President Bush, handed the Democrats a decisive win in the Presidential election and gave them gains in both houses of congress.

Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-DE)/ Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) 53% PV 364 EV

Vice President George W. Bush (R-TX)/ Senator John S. McCain (R-AZ) 45% PV 174 EV