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This is something I’ve been thinking about for a while, and I’m interested in hearing your conclusions.

According to Wikipedia (I know)

Bob Dole only faced one truly enthusiastic and well-financed challenger – in 1974 by Congressman Bill Roy. Much of Roy's popularity was in response to the fallout from Watergate. Dole would win re-election in 1974 by only a few thousand votes, having in the end graphically painted Roy as pro-abortion.

Let’s say that Dole runs a less aggressive campaign, and is defeated in 1974. How would this change politics? I think Roy would probably be a one termer, given Kansas’s reluctance to electing Democrats to the Senate, but there’s a chance he could have avoided this fate and become like several other Senators, serving in a deep red state.

Of course, the effects of Dole’s loss on the GOP seem more interesting. How does this affect Republican Senate leadership? Does Ford still win the primary in 1976? I’d think so, but who then does he select as VP? And how does that choice impact the election? With Dole likely not running for president in this history, could another Republican receive the nomination in 1988, or would Bush likely still prevail? Finally, who gets it in 1996?
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