Bob Dole loses in 1974

This is something I’ve been thinking about for a while, and I’m interested in hearing your conclusions.

According to Wikipedia (I know)

Bob Dole only faced one truly enthusiastic and well-financed challenger – in 1974 by Congressman Bill Roy. Much of Roy's popularity was in response to the fallout from Watergate. Dole would win re-election in 1974 by only a few thousand votes, having in the end graphically painted Roy as pro-abortion.

Let’s say that Dole runs a less aggressive campaign, and is defeated in 1974. How would this change politics? I think Roy would probably be a one termer, given Kansas’s reluctance to electing Democrats to the Senate, but there’s a chance he could have avoided this fate and become like several other Senators, serving in a deep red state.

Of course, the effects of Dole’s loss on the GOP seem more interesting. How does this affect Republican Senate leadership? Does Ford still win the primary in 1976? I’d think so, but who then does he select as VP? And how does that choice impact the election? With Dole likely not running for president in this history, could another Republican receive the nomination in 1988, or would Bush likely still prevail? Finally, who gets it in 1996?
 
Senator Howard Baker from Tennessee is the most likely choice by Ford as his VP in 1976 instead of Bob Dole. I don't think it would have made any difference to the result. Even if Ford/Howard had won Tennessee, which Carter won by 13%, Carter would still have won the election.

A Kansas Senate seat fell vacant in 1978 when Republican Senator James Pearson retired. Nancy Landon Kassebaum (Republican) was elected in his place. Maybe Dole could get the Republican nomination instead of Kassebaum.
 
I've thought of this before as I definitely recall Dole being behind for a while in the 74 race before he went nuclear against Ray on the abortion issue.

In my opinion, a Bob Dole who loses his first race for reelection to the Senate in 1974 is a minor footnote in history afterwards. Maybe he gets a consolation appointment by Ford (maybe even Agriculture Secretary replacing Earl Butz!), but I don't see him defeating Kassebaum in 78 or even running for office again.

One thought about the 76 race and a Dole-less VP debate with Mondale. Without the "Democrat Wars" crack (and a generally more pleasant nominee like Baker), is there less anti-Republican backlash and perhaps a closer race, maybe even a win by Ford?
 
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