Blue Skies in Camelot: An Alternate 60's and Beyond

[President_Lincoln]

How different is OTL LBJ to the LBJ presented in this timeline though?

I feel like this is a good time to throw my two cents in here and set the record straight.

LBJ and RFK ITTL are both largely the same as they were IOTL. So any positions you're curious about can probably be checked through independent research there. I will say this: the two are much closer on policy than either would like to admit. Most of their conflict with each other comes from personality clash, rather than different ideals. They do see the Democratic Party differently, and want to attract different demographics, but their political positions aren't too far apart. Sure Johnson is more of a hawk than RFK, and Bobby is more "proto-neo-liberal" on economic issues that LBJ, but all in all they both are left of the Republicans on social issues and economic ones as well. They both support a strong military, and the development of African American communities. Even with cultural issues becoming more pronounced throughout TTL's 70's, Johnson's "law and order" was never as far right as Nixon's or Bill Buckley's, and Bobby sympathized with the counterculture, but he never endorsed violent protest.

I don't expect Kennedy and Johnson to mend fences anytime soon, but their relationship is better described I think as one of fierce personal animosity and rivalry, not senseless hate. Their rivalry is representative of a divide developing ITTL's Democratic Party, but it likely won't result in a full intra-party "war" or anything, at least for the time being. Kennedy and Johnson have no love lost between them, but their focus is currently on working together to grow their majorities in Congress during the midterms. Stay tuned in and get the popcorn ready for after though...

 

[historybuff]

Popcorn? I prefer some chips and a nice can of coca cola.

 

[President Earl Warren]

social issues

How long before that changes, especilly if Abortion becomes a prevelant issue? Johnson and Kennedy would have to know that to keep that catholic part of the party still around they would have to say something on the matter.

 

[President_Lincoln]

How long before that changes, especilly if Abortion becomes a prevelant issue? Johnson and Kennedy would have to know that to keep that catholic part of the party still around they would have to say something on the matter.

This is true, but Catholics also vote on more than one issue. Opposition to the Death Penalty, government programs to help the needy, and so on. If Kennedy and Johnson strike a moderate tone on Abortion, as I think at least RFK is likely to (personal opposition, it's not Government's business) then the Democrats may lose some Catholic support, but I think the majority would remain with the party.

 

[President Earl Warren]

personal opposition, it's not Government's business

that would not work in the end in perserving religous people and would probably earn Kennedy a rebuke by the Catholic Hierarchy, which would be... embarssing for him. Also do consider that the Southern Evangelicals are going to still have a right wing shift on social issues,so Johnston may have to be to Kennedys right on the matter to keep his southern base away from the Strom Thurmonds and Jerry falwells of the world. And Abortion is not going to be the only social issue which could tear apart the Democratic coalition, Especilly later on as crime and the Hippie movment get more attenion.

 

[President_Lincoln]

that would not work in the end in perserving religous people and would probably earn Kennedy a rebuke by the Catholic Hierarchy, which would be... embarssing for him. Also do consider that the Southern Evangelicals are going to still have a right wing shift on social issues,so Johnston may have to be to Kennedys right on the matter to keep his southern base away from the Strom Thurmonds and Jerry falwells of the world. And Abortion is not going to be the only social issue which could tear apart the Democratic coalition, Especilly later on as crime and the Hippie movment get more attenion.

Fair enough. I think that Catholics shifted toward the Republicans IOTL due to economic factors as well. With the decline of unions and big city machines, and with upward mobility into the middle classes, Catholics drifted away from liberalism and toward conservatism on economic issues, such as taxes. Combined with social issues, like abortion as you say, there is some pressure for Catholics to go right, yet historically they remained at a near 50-50 split across the later part of the 20th Century.

I think you're right that if Bobby wants to maintain Catholic support, he would need to oppose both abortion and the death penalty.

 

[President Earl Warren]

Fair enough. I think that Catholics shifted toward the Republicans IOTL due to economic factors as well. With the decline of unions and big city machines, and with upward mobility into the middle classes, Catholics drifted away from liberalism and toward conservatism on economic issues, such as taxes. Combined with social issues, like abortion as you say, there is some pressure for Catholics to go right, yet historically they remained at a near 50-50 split across the later part of the 20th Century.

I think you're right that if Bobby wants to maintain Catholic support, he would need to oppose both abortion and the death penalty.

I can essentially say this is in large part the history of my family. My Grandma who moved from Ireleand started out sympathyizing with the Democrats but when she finally was able to vote she was diehard for Reagan,this was in large part due to the fact she had ascended into the suburbs but abortion is what really made her flip.Now she wont even think of voting Democratic because their the party of the Abortionists, Although Id suspect shed still lean Republician if the issue were removed

 

[Laxault2020]

I think you're right that if Bobby wants to maintain Catholic support, he would need to oppose both abortion and the death penalty. However, this won't be enough and ignores that even OTL the Catholic vote began to divide.

Bobby will likely have to cut his losses in keeping catholic support. Focus on the Irish Catholics and Hispanic Catholics that OTL have been more reluctant to shift to the GOP and keep the Catholic vote about 50-50.

ITL Polish, Italians, German, etc. Catholics are increasingly a lost cause as they were never as rooted in being Democrats as the Irish were. In addition, if the southern faction of the Dems stays around, non-Irish Catholics will increasing feel uncomfortable being with southern evangelicals (depending on GOP outreach of course).

In addition, Irish Catholics in Catholic leadership have always been the most suspicious of economic conservatism. There are reams of Irish Catholic priest blog posts/articles, etc. asking for a "social conservative (but pro immigration) economically liberal party which would be a Bobby Kennedy Party). If Bobby Kennedy wants to play dirty, he'd try to elevate the Irish in the American Catholic Church and those voices that spread this position.

Italian, German, and Polish Catholics will likely move to the GOP as they feel increasingly well off and haven't associated themselves with the "social justice" portion of catholic teaching as much.

While Poland does have the Law-and-Justice Party that follows this mold (outside of immigration) Poles/Polish-Americans aren't identical in this respect, and the GOP can demagogue economic liberalism as "the first step to the socialism that occupies the homeland today", a tactic which should work for Poles, Lithuanians, etc. but won't for the Irish. This is compounded by the fact that the Irish were generally in more Union-heavy jobs than other Catholics, and for longer historically.

Lastly, if the democrats are seen as "weak on communism", then those Polish and Germans with attachment to "the homeland" will vote GOP not only to "eventually free that land (if Republicans go full Reagan not Nixon) or "to prevent what happened there over here".[/QUOTE]

 

[President_Lincoln]

I think you're right that if Bobby wants to maintain Catholic support, he would need to oppose both abortion and the death penalty. However, this won't be enough and ignores that even OTL the Catholic vote began to divide.

Bobby will likely have to cut his losses in keeping catholic support. Focus on the Irish Catholics and Hispanic Catholics that OTL have been more reluctant to shift to the GOP and keep the Catholic vote about 50-50.

ITL Polish, Italians, German, etc. Catholics are increasingly a lost cause as they were never as rooted in being Democrats as the Irish were. In addition, if the southern faction of the Dems stays around, non-Irish Catholics will increasing feel uncomfortable being with southern evangelicals (depending on GOP outreach of course).

In addition, Irish Catholics in Catholic leadership have always been the most suspicious of economic conservatism. There are reams of Irish Catholic priest blog posts/articles, etc. asking for a "social conservative (but pro immigration) economically liberal party which would be a Bobby Kennedy Party). If Bobby Kennedy wants to play dirty, he'd try to elevate the Irish in the American Catholic Church and those voices that spread this position.

Italian, German, and Polish Catholics will likely move to the GOP as they feel increasingly well off and haven't associated themselves with the "social justice" portion of catholic teaching as much.

While Poland does have the Law-and-Justice Party that follows this mold (outside of immigration) Poles/Polish-Americans aren't identical in this respect, and the GOP can demagogue economic liberalism as "the first step to the socialism that occupies the homeland today", a tactic which should work for Poles, Lithuanians, etc. but won't for the Irish. This is compounded by the fact that the Irish were generally in more Union-heavy jobs than other Catholics, and for longer historically.

Lastly, if the democrats are seen as "weak on communism", then those Polish and Germans with attachment to "the homeland" will vote GOP not only to "eventually free that land (if Republicans go full Reagan not Nixon) or "to prevent what happened there over here".

[/QUOTE]

Excellent points here, @Laxault2020! I think this is all pretty accurate.

 

[Laxault2020]

A perspective on what a Catholic "Bobby Kennedy" style party would look like is arguably the American Solidarity Party. https://solidarity-party.org/ Bobby might be more moderate on economics, however.

Another look at what that type of philosophy would espouse. https://catholicexchange.com/160218

If your interested from the philosophical debate within Catholic hierarchy on the issue of whether catholics can be economically conservative I recommend looking up Father James V. Schall, a Jesuit at Georgetown University who defied what I would call "the Jesuit liberal economic consensus" and arguably wrote some of the best defenses of modern movement conservatism from a Catholic Perspective in addition to a lot of other interesting work like defending traditional liberal education. He's one of my favorite writers.

Here's a good primer https://www.catholicworldreport.com/2012/05/01/the-ryan-lecture/

Lastly, I would add that if Bobby tries to build a "Catholic faction" in the democratic party, he will not only have to build church leadership support, but also address the fact that even those economically left-wing in the Church aren't big fans of Unions, as they see them as a potential source of "dual-loyalty" and against Catholic principles of national Solidarity.

Not to mention that Unions are traditionally anti-immigration (especially during this time period), while the left-leaning element of the Church has always been pro-immigrant in its self-interest as Hispanic immigration would bring in left-economically leaning Catholics that would not only fill pews but increase this factions power within the Church and America as a whole.

This will hurt the necessary enthusiasm and organization need to keep Catholics a force within the democratic party.

Lastly, you could potentially see The Irish Church/Bobby vs South/Unions/Johnson being the great divide within the primaries ala OTL 2016 Sanders vs Clinton

 

[BP Booker]

President Lincoln, how is JFKs health as of IITL 1970? I know he had health problems during his last years (back problems, fevers, mood swings, etc...) - althou he apparently got better after he changed doctors. Did the stress of 5 more years in office affected him and and will he be able to move around NY state for Bobbys Senate campaign?

 

[Laxault2020]

Excellent points here, @Laxault2020! I think this is all pretty accurate.[/QUOTE]

Thanks!

I would add that those Democrats who do move GOP will most likely be attracted to Buckley and Paleoconservatism, not Romney and the Centrists, due to longstanding distrust of this faction, its social liberalism, and the fact that buckleyism is a fresh idea to rally around that checks all of the boxes that caused Catholics to leave the democrats int he first place.

As a result, the GOP also stands to have internal divisions caused by this shift.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

In this discussion: it's worth remembering that while Catholics were opposed to abortion, at this point in time it's a non-issue for most Protestant voters, even the more evangelical ones - OTL it wasn't until Roe v Wade that they got exercised on the subject, in fact IIRC the Southern Baptists were openly fine with it in certain circumstances. So with butterflies, it could end up staying as a Catholic-only political issue ITTL.

 

[Alpha-King98760]

I wonder how Romney and the centrists will handle the situation with Catholics?

 

[Laxault2020]

In this discussion: it's worth remembering that while Catholics were opposed to abortion, at this point in time it's a non-issue for most Protestant voters, even the more evangelical ones - OTL it wasn't until Roe v Wade that they got exercised on the subject, in fact IIRC the Southern Baptists were openly fine with it in certain circumstances. So with butterflies, it could end up staying as a Catholic-only political issue ITTL.

If abortion stays a "Catholic Issue" it could become an interesting political "hot potato". If you are anti-abortion you alienate a large swath of the electorate and eliminate the potential to win certain socially liberal states (like Oregon perhaps?), but gain hardcore catholic support that will ensure victory in others (Rhode Island?)

 

[President_Lincoln]

Excellent points here, @Laxault2020! I think this is all pretty accurate.

Thanks!

I would add that those Democrats who do move GOP will most likely be attracted to Buckley and Paleoconservatism, not Romney and the Centrists, due to longstanding distrust of this faction, its social liberalism, and the fact that buckleyism is a fresh idea to rally around that checks all of the boxes that caused Catholics to leave the democrats int he first place.

As a result, the GOP also stands to have internal divisions caused by this shift.

Agree wholeheartedly with this.

In this discussion: it's worth remembering that while Catholics were opposed to abortion, at this point in time it's a non-issue for most Protestant voters, even the more evangelical ones - OTL it wasn't until Roe v Wade that they got exercised on the subject, in fact IIRC the Southern Baptists were openly fine with it in certain circumstances. So with butterflies, it could end up staying as a Catholic-only political issue ITTL.

Another interesting point! Thank you for raising it. I think we could likely see a Roe v. Wade parallel ITTL, but only time will tell.

President Lincoln, how is JFKs health as of IITL 1970? I know he had health problems during his last years (back problems, fevers, mood swings, etc...) - althou he apparently got better after he changed doctors. Did the stress of 5 more years in office affected him and and will he be able to move around NY state for Bobbys Senate campaign?

With the help of Dr. Hans Kraus, whom he began seeing in late 1962/early 1963 as per OTL, President Kennedy's health has improved tremendously. He began to experience back pain less frequently until it was mostly gone, his digestive problems and Addison's Disease were being treated with mostly benign medication, and JFK himself reported being able to play with his kids and exercise, swimming laps in the White House pool every morning to start his day. He's still by no means the "model of good health" he claimed publicly, but he's in much better shape than experts thought he would be. Spending much of his time with Jackie and the kids at Hyannis Port, and writing his memoirs and the Complete History of the United States have also helped relieve the stress he encountered while in office. I predict that he will be able to move around New York and Massachusetts to help Bobby and Ted campaign, giving speeches and making appearances, though he will leave much of the heavy lifting to the women of the family and Bobby and Ted themselves. Even with his better health, an active campaign could really hurt him physically.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

If abortion stays a "Catholic Issue" it could become an interesting political "hot potato". If you are anti-abortion you alienate a large swath of the electorate and eliminate the potential to win certain socially liberal states (like Oregon perhaps?), but gain hardcore catholic support that will ensure victory in others (Rhode Island?)

A dilemma all right... Either way you lose voters.

Presidents of the day may find it safer to take a leaf from Yes Prime Minister: in the episode 'The Bishop's Gambit', Sir Humphrey observes that a prospective Bishop wishes to challenge government policy on abortion, contraception and pornography. The PM replies that these are areas on which govervment prefers to have no policy and that their policy is not to have a policy

This could be the case. A POTUS makes loud noises about whatever it's thought will win votes at the given time, but in actuality just leaves it up to the states as was the case OTL prior to Roe v Wade.

Which raises one question...absent it becoming a Federal issue, it could be that over slow time, all states might gradually legislate for it if it doesn't become as charged as OTL.

Another interesting point! Thank you for raising it. I think we could likely see a Roe v. Wade parallel ITTL, but only time will tell.

No worries! And be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Alpha-King98760]

I think the Bishop’s Gambit approach is a good solution to the abortion dilemma ITTL.

 

[thatsbunkers]

In this discussion: it's worth remembering that while Catholics were opposed to abortion, at this point in time it's a non-issue for most Protestant voters, even the more evangelical ones - OTL it wasn't until Roe v Wade that they got exercised on the subject, in fact IIRC the Southern Baptists were openly fine with it in certain circumstances. So with butterflies, it could end up staying as a Catholic-only political issue ITTL.

If that happens it means Roe v Wade doesn't happen in the first place, so abortion wouldn't be a national issue, but an issue for gubernatorial elections.

 

[Roger Redux]

Stay tuned in and get the popcorn ready for after though...

Popcorn? I prefer some chips and a nice can of coca cola.

That'd be Cheetos and Mtn. Dew for me.