Bloomberg vs Obama vs Huckabee

Bloomberg himself said pre-2008 that he'd only consider running if the race were between someone like Huckabee on the Republican side and Obama or Edwards on the Democratic side.


What if the 2008 election had been Mike Bloomberg running against Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee?


Who is Bloomberg's running mate? David Boren, Sam Nunn, and Chuck Hagel were the three folks considered most likely to be the running mate. Bloomberg's base is a mix of Clinton-leaning Democrats, socially moderate republicans, and hawkish democrats.
 
FWIW, polling in mid-2007 indicated that he was well-known but had limited appeal as a candidate:

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Almost two-thirds of American voters (65%) know who Michael Bloomberg is – more than have heard of Mitt Romney (62%), Joe Biden (58%), Fred Thompson (51%) or Bill Richardson (48%). Overall, Bloomberg’s visibility falls in the middle of the pack of presidential contenders – well below the current Democratic or Republican frontrunners.

But as the New York mayor reportedly considers an independent bid for the presidency, only 9% of voters who have heard of him say there’s a good chance they’d cast a ballot for him.

Another 23% say there is some chance, but more than half of American voters – 56% – say there’s no chance Bloomberg would get their vote.

Majorities of Republican, Democratic and independent voters who have heard of Bloomberg say there is no chance they’d vote for him, though he is somewhat more appealing to independents and Republicans than he is to Democrats.

As many as 38% of independent voters and 36% of Republican voters who have heard of Bloomberg say there is at least some chance they’d vote for him, compared to just 26% of Democratic voters.

http://www.pewresearch.org/2007/06/20/bloomberg-well-known-but-of-limited-appeal-for-now/
 
In the end I just don't see Bloomberg doing it because it's not like Obama was Bernie Sanders. Obama was simply not far enough to the left on economic issues for Bloomberg to conclude he was as bad as a Religious Right candidate like Huckabee.
 
tl;dr: Maybe we get a much more forceful and progressive reigning in of the financial sector.


People like Bloomberg move in strangely opaque circles, so I can imagine him being convinced this is something the people want. I think the more likely thing to happen if Huckabee is the candidate is he meets with Obama, realizes he's working with another moderate, and agrees to stay out. But it's by no means certain that would be the case. Enough disaffected Clintonians exist near his orbit that he might be convinced to just go for it.

While I agree with David T on the fundamentals, badly thought-out political campaigns are there own kind of fundamental truth. So let's say he runs.

First off, Huckabee starts off with a sturdier base than McCain. The special interests are placated and the establishment likely feel they have control over the situation (it's funny, they tend to feel that way no matter what the circumstances). Somewhat higher enthusiasm on the right, softer support towards the center but he was really trying to work that compassionate conservative angle in '08 so he's got some messaging aimed at the moderates at least.

Fundamentals for Obama are the same. His message was broad and pure political gold. If Bloomberg plops in the middle, he can push harder to the middle and still be certain that his left is strong, or push to the left and keep his middle happy with positive messaging. He might lose a few technocratic types and will certainly lose a number of large donors. This could allow him to go harder after the financial sector during the campaign. While maybe not in-line with his inclinations, it's good politics that appeals to the working and middle class whites that Obama has a chance at winning over. (Mostly in suburbs in blue states he's already going to win, but still, pad the numbers.) Otherwise talk over Bloomberg and say what he says but more eloquently and win those news cycles.

Bloomberg makes a small coalition from true moderates, those moderate hawks that loved McCain, and the strangely fervent remnant of Clintonian DLC voters who couldn't reconcile themselves to Obama. And then, you know, a few well-off congressional districts in the northeast probably give him above-average support, and probably some above-average Jewish support.

I'm inclined to say Obama suffers more than Huckabee, just because OTL was an Obama blowout and he's got more votes to lose. But then that was against McCain. In the end I think the Republicans are more enthusiastic about their guy, plus more Republican-leaning voters are voting than IOTL because conservatives who stayed home IOTL are out and moderates who went for McCain are out for Bloomberg. The Democratic majority is maybe a little smaller. Obama maybe loses a couple states he won IOTL- Indiana and Florida come to mind- but he also might make a couple pickups in the likes of Montana and Arizona.

If Obama, unfettered by the need to court the financial sector, takes the opportunity to bash that sector- keeping in mind the financial crisis is around our ears at this point- we could see a much stronger regulation of that industry once he takes office. That could be the biggest effect from this.
 
Who would be the best opponent on the Democratic side for Bloomberg then?

John Edwards seems easiest to beat (especially if the scandal comes out) but my impression is his staffers would throw him under the bus before he could get the nomination.

Could Russ Feingold perhaps run if Obama doesn't?

Feingold-Edwards would be an easy ticket for Bloomberg-Boren to compete against I think. Huckabee is too smart to pick a bad running mate so I'd imagine he'd go for Pawlenty. Just winning the BosWash states and Oklahoma would be enough to force things to the house where things would get real interesting real quick.
 
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Who would be the best opponent on the Democratic side for Bloomberg then?

John Edwards seems easiest to beat (especially if the scandal comes out) but my impression is his staffers would throw him under the bus before he could get the nomination.

Could Russ Feingold perhaps run if Obama doesn't?

The big problem here is that if it's not Obama, it's going to be Clinton. And then assuming you find a way to make her crash and burn, you've still got Biden as a decent consensus candidate waiting in the wings. Edwards is probably the only candidate from the second tier who can beat Biden, and as you say he's probably the weakest in the general assuming you can time the scandal right.

Another out-there scenario is you get someone in the Bernie Sanders mold to rise early and push harder to the left than Edwards did. Sanders himself isn't a great choice for this, given that he's only been in the senate for a minute, but he's got umpteen years in the House, so why not? People were mad in 2008 and it's possible his OTL message would've caught fire if the Democratic field found itself in total disarray somehow.

Any way you cut it, the ultimate winner is Huckabee. He's got a high floor that Bloomberg can't penetrate. In a scenario where Huckabee's getting at least 40% of the vote in all but the bluest states against two other strong opponents, he's going to walk away with this election.
 
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