'Blood-Stained South' - A Confederate Victory Timeline

[vonstraya]

This is the first draft of the timeline and is out of date. An updated version can be found further down.
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Hi! Hope you, the reader, are doing well and thanks for taking the time to read this. I'm only new to this forum but I've been chipping away at an alternate history for some time now that I call 'Blood-Stained South' about a southern victory in the civil war, very original I know but I just wanted to try my hand at it anyway. I wanted to drop an outline of the timeline as I've written so far to hopefully get some input and advice on where to go next, correct any errors I've made and get some general feedback. (Also note that I have a more detailed day-by-day timeline written up, this is just a more general overview)

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• The Confederacy wins the Battle of Gettysburg because the 1st Minnesota refuse to suicidally charge Wilcox's brigades allowing them to flank and overrun the Union defences on Cemetery Ridge. Following the battle the Confederates then capture the city of Harrisburg, lay waste to the surrounding areas to damage the Unions morale and economy before returning back to home soil.
• The New York draft riots escalate into full blown rebellion and the city descends into a miniature urban civil war of its own. The army cannot react quickly because of the dire situation in Pennsylvania. The riot causes a fire which spreads throughout the city causing widespread destruction and death. The fire is eventually put out and the rebellion is quelled but only at great loss of life and property.
• Because of the Confederate Victory at Gettysburg the Union is forced to divert troops away from the Western Theater and to the Eastern Theater, slowing progress in the west and allowing the Confederates there to better prepare.
• The Democrats under McClellan win the 1864 Election and oust sitting President Abraham Lincoln. McClellan is pro-war and seeks to defeat the Confederacy but the official policy of the Democratic Party is to sue for peace which is the biggest reason for why they were elected.
• McClellan shifts the Union war strategy and takes a more cautious and defensive approach when invading the Confederacy which he believes will be successful and save more lives, but this is a blunder and the Confederacy is able to exploit this to their advantage despite their otherwise faltering position.
• A Copperhead Democrat supporter attempts to assassinate President McClellan because of his resistance to peace with the Confederacy but they miss completely and McClellan is unharmed. The attempt incites conflict between the War Democrats and Copperheads as members of the Democratic Party are accused of orchestrating the attempt to put Vice President George Pendleton into power.
• The Democrats force McClellans hand and the Union seeks peace with the Confederacy. In 1865 an armistice is agreed to, the treaty is mediated by Brazilian Emperor Dom Pedro II. The Confederacy takes with them all eleven secessionist states as well as the Indian Territory. They do not control but continue to dispute Missouri, Kentucky and West Virginia. There are however still disputed territories whose ownership is not clearly defined such as in the Arizona Territory and Public Land Strip. The Union does not yet recognise the independence of the Confederacy because recognition would require a constitutional amendment and the National Unionists in Congress block it from happening.
• Slaves freed by the Union during the Civil War mostly flee to the north en masse but some using weapons left for them by the Union Army begin an armed guerrilla insurrection within the Confederacy to free more slaves known as the Freedmen's Insurgency. This rebellion is covertly and unofficially supported by the Union.
• Abraham Lincoln is not assassinated and continues on as a part of the National Union Party, but decides to take more of a supportive role in the National Union Party rather than its face and later becoming a cabinet member in government.
• A War Democrat supporter shoots President McClellan in an attempted assassination. McClellan survives but is permanently paralysed from the waist down. The attempted assassination is highly controversial and his subsequent trial becomes politicised, leading to riots between War Democrats, Copperheads and National Unionists.
• The Confederacy reorganises the Provost Guard to adjust for peacetime duties including acting as gendarmerie, despite their name, and as a secret police used to stamp out rebellion in covert operations, primarily interested in suppressing the Freedmen's Insurgency which both the Regular Military and Home Guard struggle to accomplish.
• France and the United Kingdom recognise the independence of the Confederacy after the conclusion of the Civil War which further legitimises them. This is strongly protested by the Union with economic sanctions but they do not act on it militarily.
• The perceived instability in North America, the ongoing tensions between the Union and Confederacy and the poor relationship between the United States and European powers discourages European investment in the growing American economy. While there is still a lot of investment in the rapidly industrialising Union, it is notably less than otherwise. The Confederacy receives even less European investment because of ethical concerns surrounding slavery. Instead Europeans focus more of their investments and later Imperial ambitions in Latin America, Asia and Africa. This results in the American rail network being smaller and growing slower than otherwise.
• The Confederacy intervenes in the Second Franco-Mexican War on the side of France in exchange for support in paying their debts, rebuilding their economy and for concessions in the new Mexican Empire. The Confederate soldiers are highly effective at fighting the Mexicans, more-so than their French counterparts, because of experience with the terrain and the enemy from the Mexican-American War. The Union supports the Mexican Republicans but their support is limited due to the distances involved.
• Because of their intervention in Mexico, President McClellan threatens war with the Confederacy but congress does not support him and the French threaten to protect the Confederacy, even though they have no interest in following through, so he is forced to back down. This triggers a constitutional crisis within the Union over the powers that Congress and the President have over military matters.
• Unionist and Confederate forces clash in northern Mexico during the crisis.
• The Confederacy slowly abandons the doctrine of States' Rights and gradually becomes more centralised and authoritarian, embracing the proto-Fascist philosophy of George Fitzhugh. This gives rise to a factional split in the Confederate government between Southern Nationalists, also known as Fitzhughians, centred in the Deep South and Jeffersonians centered in the Upper South
• The Confederacy enslaves all Free People of Colour, declaring that black people are an inherently servile race, and paranoid that the Freedmen's Insurgency was being supported by Free People of Colour and that they'd support a Union invasion if it were to happen. Free People of Colour and their White Allies in the Confederacy challenge this act and in New Orleans they take up arms in rebellion, but this attempt is crushed. Other Free People of Colour flee the country, primarily to the Union or Liberia. Those enslaved by this act are taken as State property and managed by the central Confederate government instead of any private owner.
• The National Union Party does not dissolve and instead remains a dominant party in the United States, effectively replacing the Republican Party.
• While they are supportive, both the Union and Confederacy are too busy dealing with one another to focus on assisting the Dominican Republic in the Dominican Restoration War in any way other than diplomatic. Despite this the Spanish are eventually ousted from the country and Dominica wins its independence.
• The combined forces of France, the Mexican Conservatives and the Confederacy are able to defeat the Mexican Republicans and the rule of the Mexican Empire is solidified.
• France offers to purchase Luxembourg from the Netherlands, this is protested by North Germany who threatens war with France over the issue, triggering the Luxembourg Crisis. As a compromise Luxembourg is annexed by Belgium and in exchange the Belgian border with France is returned to the pre-1815 status giving France land in Namur and Hainaut.
• The 1867 Reform Act is not passed in the United Kingdom which results in the Conservatives maintaining power.
• In Spain several army officers and politicians attempt a coup d'état to overthrow the monarchy but the attempt fails due to lack of support.
• In the Union the ‘Southern Question’ or ‘Reunion’ becomes a major political discussion; whether or not to push to reunify with the Confederacy or not. The National Union Party is staunchly pro-Reunion while the Democratic Party is mostly anti-Reunion but there are are vocal pro-Reunionists in the party.
• The National Union Party and their nominee Ulysses Grant win the 1868 Election in the United States. Abraham Lincoln while still active in the party decides not to run despite being offered the candidacy.
• The Confederacy formalises the Confederate Secret Service Bureau by bringing together their many disparate elements. It acts as an intelligence and national security agency, primarily interested with protecting the Confederacy from the Union.
• Following the Boshin War and the Meiji Restoration, the new government of Japan begins a policy of rapid modernisation but also holds back on most modernising social reforms out of fear of provoking a rebellion, maintaining the mantra of 'Western Technology, Japanese Spirit'. As a result the Satsuma Rebellion never occurs but the tensions between the aristocracy and lower classes remain high.
• The 13th Amendment is ratified in the United States which abolishes all Slavery. Prior to this however, Missouri, West Virginia, Maryland and Delaware all abolished slavery on their own which left Kentucky as the only slave state in the Union at the time, and they were undergoing a process of gradual emancipation anyway.
• The Union gradually becomes more centralised, removing power from the states and consolidating it into the federal government.
• The Franco-Prussian War is avoided because there is no succession crisis in Spain and the French peoples demands for war are lessened by their victories in Mexico and in the Luxembourg Crisis.
• In 1870 a border dispute over the Public Land Strip (Oklahoma Panhandle) leads to the Union deciding to reinvade the South to force it to reunify. They raise an army and use their navy to blockade Southern ports. France fails to respond because they have no intention to go to war with the Union and North Germany threatens them in tern. The South responds in kind and raises their own army. Fighting begins across the border territories, the Union holding the advantage and defeating the Confederacy in multiple key battles. This is known as the War of 1870.
• The United Kingdom intervenes in the War of 1870 because their economic interests are under threat so they send their navy to break the blockade and intimidate the Union. This succeeds and the Union backs down, a new armistice is then negotiated between the Union and the Confederacy mostly based on the 1865 Armistice but making the borders much more clear including handing the Public Land Strip to the Union.
• As a result of the War of 1870 the Provost Guards duties as gendarmerie and secret police are split off into into a new organisation, the Internal Security Commission, to better organise and streamline the organisation.
• The UK holds a general election in 1872 which the Conservatives win because of their success economically and in foreign policy, so maintain their hold on the country and continue to stifle attempts at further democratisation.
• In the 1872 Election the Democratic Party splits and runs two seperate candidates, one Conservative, one Progressive. As a result they lose by a landslide.
• The Democratic Party in the Union falls apart because of the loss of their main support base in the south, questions over what the party should become and being viewed as a pro-Confederate fifth column by many. It dissolves into multiple smaller parties giving the National Unionists virtually unrivalled dominance in government.
• Emperor Napoleon III of France dies due to his gallstones and compounding health problems. His 16 year old son Louis-Napoléon is crowned Emperor Napoleon IV, but France is partially governed by a regency until he reaches the age of majority of 21 in 1877. Liberal factions in France use the minority period to advance their own goals of democratisation and liberalisation.
• The Panic of 1873 is avoided because of the reduced investment from Europeans in America, particularly in railroads and because Germany does not switch to the Gold standard.
• The Public Land Strip is integrated into the State of Kansas so the Union can better stake their claim to it.
• The remnants of the Democratic Party reform into the United Labor Party, formerly called the The Social Democratic Workingmen's Party of North America; a coalition of Rural Christian Conservatives from The Grange and Leftist Labor Unions from the Knights of Labor, both groups empowered by the lack of slaves and sharecroppers to compete with. They are generally pro-Labour, anti-Big Business, anti-Immigration, Protectionist, Isolationist, pro-Welfare, pro-Fiat currency, anti-Reunion and anti-Expansionist. However there is conflict within the party between Leftist and Conservative factions primarily over social issues such as Race and Religion. The emergence of Labor ends the Third Party System and begins the Fourth.
• The National Union Party gradually becomes more accomodating to the Confederacy because reopening trade with both them and the pro-Confederate Europeans would revitalise the sluggish American economy. This process began following their defeat in the War of 1870, then accelerated by the collapse of the Democratic Party and finally the emergence of the Labor Party. The Nationals are still pro-Reunion but abandon their policy of aggressive and forceful reunification and adopt a more diplomatic approach.
• The Union drops the economic sanctions levied against countries that recognise the Confederacy as a way to revitalise their economy. The Union also later on opens up trade with the Confederacy to a limited degree. This has the desired effect of causing rapid economic growth.
• The Confederacy and Dominica together invade Haiti with the intent to annex it into the Dominican Republic and unify Hispaniola, to ensure Confederate economic interests and to get revenge for the Haitian Revolution. This is known as the Second Dominican-Haitian War (the first being the Dominican War of Independence). Slavery is legalised in the newly annexed territory but not in the rest of Dominica, while the regular army is defeated the Haitian people continue to resist with guerrilla warfare.
• Because of the growing strain on the infrastructure of Washington D.C and its proximity to the Confederacy putting it in potential danger, the capital of the United States is relocated to Philadelphia. The original District of Columbia is absorbed into Maryland while a new district is carved out of Pennsylvania and New Jersey around Philadelphia and straddling the Delaware River.
• The Union eventually recognises the independence of the Confederacy and passes the 16th Amendment to the Constitution to allow for this. They alter their flag to reduce the number of stars from 37 to 26 but this change is unpopular. The Confederacy also recognises Union control over Missouri and Kentucky and alter their flag to reduce the number of stars from 13 to 11 but this is also unpopular because it is asymmetrical.

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And that's what I have so far in brief, starting in 1863 and going up to 1878. I'd love to hear and thoughts, questions, corrections or opinions on it. I also have a couple of short stories written in this setting which I can post if y'all are interested.

Some things I am still trying to figure out is; What would occur in the Civil War following a Confederate Victory at Gettysburg (I'm not a big military history buff unfortunately)? If there would be an economic crisis in lieu of the Panic of 1873 and if so when? What the Confederacy would do with the Indian Tribes who supported them in the war? How Germany could unify without a Franco-Prussian War and/or how could a Franco-Prussian War break out in this timeline? And when an opportune time for a coup by the Mexican Conservatives against Emperor Maximilian because of his liberal principles would occur? Any assistance with answering these questions in particular would be greatly appreciated.

 

[IndefatigableRN]

Looks like an interesting start and I like the French angle. Albeit equally unlikely to play nice with the Confederacy as Britain, it’s an underused option (I think Napoleon’s Mexican ambitions make it possible and I find it more unique vs the standard UK entry trope).

That being said, I think UK intervention in 1870 is even less likely than during the Civil War (slavery in the South and economic ties with the Union will make this nigh impossible politically), even with a Conservative government. I think you are better off keeping the French as backers given your story thus far…

 

[vonstraya]

Looks like an interesting start and I like the French angle. Albeit equally unlikely to play nice with the Confederacy as Britain, it’s an underused option (I think Napoleon’s Mexican ambitions make it possible and I find it more unique vs the standard UK entry trope).

That being said, I think UK intervention in 1870 is even less likely than during the Civil War (slavery in the South and economic ties with the Union will make this nigh impossible politically), even with a Conservative government. I think you are better off keeping the French as backers given your story thus far…

Thanks for the input!

I had the Brits intervene in 1870 instead of the French because 1. the French are being pressured by the Germans who are pro-Union. 2. the Tories in the UK are not the more populist movement of Benjamin Disraeli but instead remain much more anti-democratic and elitist because there is no Reform Act of 1867 and 3. the economic sanctions imposed on them by the Union and decoupling because of the perceived instability in North America mean they're less invested in the North so a war would be less damaging.

Do you reckon these are good enough reasons or is Britain just too anti-Slavery to consider military intervention?

 

[IndefatigableRN]

Thanks for the input!

I had the Brits intervene in 1870 instead of the French because 1. the French are being pressured by the Germans who are pro-Union. 2. the Tories in the UK are not the more populist movement of Benjamin Disraeli but instead remain much more anti-democratic and elitist because there is no Reform Act of 1867 and 3. the economic sanctions imposed on them by the Union and decoupling because of the perceived instability in North America mean they're less invested in the North so a war would be less damaging.

Do you reckon these are good enough reasons or is Britain just too anti-Slavery to consider military intervention?

Even with such a Conservative Party in power, I think by 1870 the UK is too anti-slavery and perhaps equally important, would not want to jeopardise British North America. Also, it and the North are too economically dependent on one another (even with your proposed breakdown in relations).

Personally, I am not convinced that Prussia/Germany would care much about a North American conflict tbh (I think this is an odd trope from Harry Turtledove who wanted to create a WWI in NA plot).

Obviously, it’s your story (and it’s an interesting one so far), but I think a revitalised 2nd French Empire feels like a more likely partner, especially given your set up so far!

 

[vonstraya]

Even with such a Conservative Party in power, I think by 1870 the UK is too anti-slavery and perhaps equally important, would not want to jeopardise British North America. Also, it and the North are too economically dependent on one another (even with your proposed breakdown in relations).

Personally, I am not convinced that Prussia/Germany would care much about a North American conflict tbh (I think this is an odd trope from Harry Turtledove who wanted to create a WWI in NA plot).

Obviously, it’s your story (and it’s an interesting one so far), but I think a revitalised 2nd French Empire feels like a more likely partner, especially given your set up so far!

Good point, I didn't really consider what it'd mean for British North America. And with Germany I figured Bismarck would still be itching for a fight and use it as an excuse to threaten the French, but you're right I now doubt the rest of Germany would care enough

 

[vonstraya]

Right now I am working on the alternate Gettysburg Campaign in this timeline in the aftermath of the titular battle. I am now not so certain that the Confederates would be able to capture Harrisburg so some opinions would be appreciated. I'll lay out the situation here:

Following their defeat at Gettysburg the AotP retreats to Pipe Creek where they have a defensive line established. the Rebel vanguard chases them the whole way, skirmishing with them briefly but primarily to monitor their movements. The next day the rain begins, the entire Mid-Atlantic region is hit by torrential rains for four days between July 4th and July 8th, this muddies up the roads and swells rivers making travel very difficult. The AoNV follows closely behind the AotP and takes up a position opposite them at Littlestown and Hanover. Advance forces of the two armies skirmish at Union Mills and Dug Hill near Manchester where the Confederates seize the tactical heights overlooking the Unions right flank. While originally Lee was planning to engage the AotP in a decisive battle to break them once and for all while they're weak, the rain, the losses sustained by his army at Gettysburg and recent news of the Fall of Vicksburg encourages him to change his strategy; he dispatches Richard Ewell and the Second Corps to capture the town Harrisburg while Lee and the rest of the army keeps tabs on Meade and the AotP, to secure one last victory to deal damage to the Unions morale and economy before returning back to Virginia. Because of the weather it takes Ewell three days to reach the Susquehanna River opposite Harrisburg.

While the Gettysburg campaign was ongoing, Harrisburg has not been sitting idly by; the capital of Pennsylvania and a major railway hub for crossing the Appalachians, the city was always known to be a prime target of the Confederates. Defense of the city was led by Darius Couch who had about three divisions worth of troops, mostly inexperienced emergency militia called up by the governor of Pennsylvania and national guard from Pennsylvania and New York. Couch had been fortifying the city for weeks by this point including the erection of two makeshift fortifications on the opposite side of the Susquehanna near the settlement of Bridgeport; Fort Washington and Fort Couch. He had also prepared the destruction by burning of the Camelback Bridge which crossed the Susquehanna, this strategy had been successful at Columbia-Wrightsville where the burning of its bridge prevented John Gordons men from crossing the river earlier in the same campaign, but the river at Harrisburg was fordable under normal conditions so this bridges destruction would be less effective than at Columbia-Wrightsville.

My first question is; did I get all of this right factually?

My second question is; given these conditions could Ewell successfully capture Harrisburg? The torrential rains mean that the Camelback Bridge is the only crossing available until the flooding subsides which could take a week or so, but the damp conditions may also prevent the bridge from being burned successfully in the panic of battle. Ewells forces are veterans but are also exhausted from the Battle of Gettysburg. Meanwhile Couchs forces are inexperienced but are in an excellent defensive position on the opposite side of a river and in an entrenched urban environment. I'm leaning towards a probable no he can't successfully take the city, most likely the Rebels could overrun Forts Washington and Couch but not successfully cross the Susquehanna. What do you think?

The Camelback Bridge with Harrisburg in the background (date unknown)

 

[TrevorFromStarWarsBackup]

more detailed day-by-day timeline written

Would love to see this

 

[vonstraya]

Hi! Hope you, the reader, are doing well and thanks for dropping by.
I've been working on the timeline more for the past two months now and quite a lot has been added and changed (I keep learning new things and having to rewrite parts I've already finished, unfortunately the day-by-day timeline is now out of date because of this ) SO here is the new updated version of the timeline going all the way to 1880. I am also working on some short stories set in this timeline to flesh it out more so expect those coming soon. I also have some maps of the Battle of Gettysburg and the Gettysburg Campaign of this timeline on the way, but they still need some more polish because they're ugly.
Hope you like what I've done and I'd love to hear any feedback! Seriously! Any feedback is very welcome.

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1863

• The Confederacy wins the Battle of Gettysburg because the 1st Minnesota does not charge Wilcox's brigades allowing them to flank and overrun the Union defences on Cemetery Ridge. Following the battle the Union retreats to Pipe Creek while the Confederates capture the city of Harrisburg, lay waste to the surrounding areas and damage the Unions morale and economy before returning back to home soil. Robert E. Lee is unwilling to engage in another major battle or advance any further than Harrisburg and the Susquehanna without overstretching himself, and poor weather conditions slow their movement, however, on hearing news of the New York Riots, Lee considers the campaign a success and decides to return back to friendly soil. Meanwhile, George Meade attempts to resign from his post as Commander of the Army of the Potomac but he is refused by Lincoln due to the dire situation militarily and politically.
• The New York draft riots escalate into full blown rebellion and the city descends into a miniature urban civil war of its own, exacerbated by news of the defeat at Gettysburg. The army cannot react quickly because of the dire situation in Pennsylvania leading to the situation worsening. The riot causes a fire which spreads throughout the city causing widespread destruction and death. The fire is eventually put out and the rebellion is quelled but only at great loss of life and property.
• Because of the defeat at Gettysburg the Union is forced to relocate troops from the western theatre to the eastern theatre to reinforce their position, which slows their progress in the west. This includes Ulysses S. Grant who takes command of the Army if the Potomac following the dismissal of George Meade. Inversely, the Confederacy is able to focus more on the collapsing western theatre following their successes in the east.
• At the Battle of Chickamauga, additional forces dispatched to aid the Army of Tennessee from the Army of Northern Virginia are the deciding factor in the final hours of the battle and the Union line at Horseshoe Ridge is overrun leading to a crushing Union defeat as their rearguard actions falter and Confederate cavalry chase and destroy a significant portion of the Army of the Cumberland.

1864

• Because of their defeats on the battlefield, slowed progress invading the Confederacy and internal instability, the majority of the northern public turns against the war effort and the Democrats under George McClellan win the 1864 Election, ousting President Abraham Lincoln and the Republicans. McClellan is pro-war and seeks to defeat the Confederacy but the official policy of the Democratic Party is to sue for peace which is the biggest reason for why they were elected, this creates tension and conflict within the government between pro and anti war factions.

1865

• McClellan shifts the Union war strategy and takes a more cautious and defensive approach when invading the Confederacy which he believes will be successful and save more lives, focusing primarily on starving the Confederacy out with the Anaconda Plan and the Unions superior economy, but this is a blunder which buys the Confederacy more time despite their otherwise faltering position, delaying what would otherwise be certain defeat.
• A Copperhead Democrat supporter attempts to assassinate President McClellan because of his resistance to peace with the Confederacy but they miss completely and McClellan is unharmed. The attempt incites conflict between the War Democrats and Copperheads as members of the Democratic Party are accused of orchestrating the attempt to put Vice President George Pendleton into power.
• The Union seeks peace with the Confederacy after diplomatic pressure from the United Kingdom and France, Democrats in Congress pressuring McClellan, and a series of nation-wide protests and riots. Negotiations are opened up and delegates meet in Washington D.C to discuss peace terms and a ceasefire called while negotiations are held. Brazil was initially invited to mediate the peace talks but they were otherwise distracted by the War of the Triple Alliance and so the United Kingdom takes the role of mediator instead.
• In late 1865 an armistice is agreed to known as the Arlington Armistice. The Confederacy takes with them ten of the secessionist states as well as the Indian Territory. The Union however continues to occupy southern Louisiana, northern Virginia, the eastern shore of Virginia and the entire state of Tennessee as Military Districts, unwilling to hand them back unconditionally in case of another war. The Confederacy does not control but continues to dispute the aforementioned territories as well as Missouri, Kentucky and West Virginia. The Union is granted unrestricted access to the Mississippi river for transport purposes. There are however still disputed territories whose ownership is not clearly defined such as in the Arizona Territory and Public Land Strip. The Union does not yet recognise the independence of the Confederacy because recognition would require a constitutional amendment and the National Unionists in Congress block it from happening. The United Kingdom, despite their role as mediator, still does not yet recognise the independence of the Confederacy.
• Slaves freed by the Union during the Civil War mostly flee to the north en masse but some using weapons left for them by the Union Army begin an armed guerrilla insurrection within the Confederacy to free more slaves known as the Freedmen's Insurgency. Many black and radical abolitionist Union soldiers leave the army and join the insurgency as a way to continue the fight against slavery. The Insurrection is strongest in the Mississippi delta, in Tidewater Virginia, in eastern Arkansas and northern Alabama; regions which were previously occupied by the Union, have favourable terrain for a guerrilla war, originally opposed to secession, have a large Black population and affected by the Emancipation Proclamation.
• Abraham Lincoln is not assassinated and continues on as a part of the National Union Party, but decides to take more of a supportive role in the party rather than its face because of his polarising reputation.

1866

• A War Democrat supporter shoots President McClellan in an attempted assassination. McClellan survives but is permanently paralysed from the waist down. The attempted assassination is highly controversial and his subsequent trial becomes politicised, leading to riots between War Democrats, Copperheads and National Unionists.
• Following the end of the Civil War the United States restarts the African Slave Trade Patrol, joining alongside the British to stamp out the slave trade, much to the opposition of the Confederacy.
• The Confederacy begins a program to build up the weak Confederate States Navy, contracting the United Kingdom to help, which could theoretically challenge the United States Navy and to protect its trade routes in the future. This is a costly endeavour, in part because the Confederacy lacks the industry or facilities to do it themselves, but it is decided to be worthwhile for their security and economy. This investment boosts the British shipbuilding industry greatly.
• The Confederacy reorganises the Provost Guard to adjust for peacetime duties including acting as gendarmerie (despite their name) and as a secret police used to stamp out rebellion in covert operations, primarily interested in suppressing the Freedmen's Insurgency which both the Regular Military and Home Guard struggle to accomplish.
• The Union places additional funds and resources into its Army at the expense of the Navy because of the threat of the Confederacy, making it less able to project power overseas but more able to protect domestic interests. This also has the effect of instilling a marginally more militarised culture in the Union over time.
• Piracy becomes somewhat more common on the Mississippi River, in the Caribbean and the North Atlantic because they are harboured by the Confederacy or part of the Freedmen's Insurgency. The Union responds by sending naval patrols along the Mississippi and along the Confederate controlled coastline to dissuade and catch them, which heightens tensions with the Confederacy over naval jurisdictions.
• The Confederacy attempts to restart the Transatlantic slave trade, however, this ends in disaster because they are not recognised by the United Kingdom and the ships they use to transport slaves are intercepted and captured by the West Africa Squadron.
• The State of Tennessee is readmitted into the Union. The original pro-Confederate government of Tennessee disputes this from exile in Confederate territory. Despite its readmission it remains as a slave state although undergoing gradual emancipation.
• The Panic of 1866 never happens because while the Overend, Gurney and Company still collapses the continued validity of Confederate debt to fall back on and the higher demand in the shipbuilding industry keeps the market afloat. The reforms to the central banking system consequently are not implemented and the Pound Sterling has less international use.
• The Union purchases Alaska from Russia in 1866 for the price of eight million dollars, the Democrat dominated government hurrying the process along just ahead of the midterm elections in the same year in order to boost their support. They are even better able to afford it than otherwise because they do not need to spend additional funds on reconstructing the south. The purchase is very popular among the American public but it is nicknamed 'Guthrie's Folly' be it's few detractors.
• Following Confederate policies to restrict access to cotton imports, the United Kingdom, followed by France, the Mexican Empire, Austria and Spain, recognise the independence of the Confederacy which further legitimises them. As a term of political recognition, the Confederacy is forced to allow British ships to intercept Confederate ships in their efforts to end the Transatlantic Slave Trade. This is strongly protested by the Union with an economic embargo but they do not act on it militarily like the previous administration threatened. The Confederacy is still only partially recognised internationally because North Germany, the Ottomans, Russia, Brazil, Italy, the Papacy, the Mexican Republicans and many others all refuse to acknowledge their independence.
• The perceived instability in North America, the ongoing tensions between the Union and Confederacy and the poor relationship between the United States and European powers discourages European investment in the growing American economy. While there is still a lot of investment in the rapidly industrialising Union, it is notably less than otherwise. The Confederacy receives less European investment because of ethical concerns surrounding slavery but their free trade policies make up for this. Instead Europeans focus more of their investments and later Imperial ambitions in Latin America, Asia and Africa. This results in the American rail network being smaller and growing slower than otherwise.
• Following recognition by the European powers, the Confederacy expands on it policies of Laissez-faire Free Trade overseas so it can expand its economy to foreign markets on the production of raw goods like cotton, but this does mean they are less able to compete with Europe industrially, contributing to the Souths slow industrialisation.
• The Confederacy does not invest in heavy industry because its Jacksonian government is largely opposed to it, believing rapid industrialisation to be destabilising and incompatible with slavery. Some industrialisation is however undertaken that is deemed to be necessary such as railways and ironworks, these factories are worked by both free white men and black slaves which weakens the social barriers between the two classes.

1867

• The Confederacy intervenes in the Second Franco-Mexican War on the side of France in exchange for support in paying their debts, rebuilding their economy and for economic concessions in the new Mexican Empire. The Confederate soldiers are highly effective at fighting the Mexicans, more-so than their French counterparts, because of their experience with the terrain and the enemy from the Mexican-American War. The Union supports the Mexican Republicans but their support is limited due to the distances involved.
• Because of their intervention in Mexico, President McClellan threatens war with the Confederacy but congress does not support him and the French threaten to protect the Confederacy, even though they have no interest in following through at this time, so he is forced to back down. This triggers a constitutional crisis within the Union over the powers that Congress and the President have over military matters.
• Union troops from California and Confederate forces clash in northern Mexico during the height of the Mexico Crisis, further enflaming tensions. This battle is later celebrated in California as a point of pride as their states contribution to the North-South conflict.
• The Confederacy at first embraces the philosophy of Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson in the establishment of its new state but very slowly it abandons the doctrine of States' Rights and gradually becomes more centralised and authoritarian, embracing the proto-Fascist philosophy of George Fitzhugh. This gives rise to a factional split in the Confederate government between Southern Nationalists, also known as Fitzhughians, centred in Atlanta and the Deep South, and Jacksonians centred in Richmond and the Upper South. While the Jacksonians hold the majority of influence in the government at this time there is a gradual shift towards the Fitzhughians who are in the minority.
• The Confederacy enslaves all Free Blacks in the country, declaring that black people are an inherently servile race, paranoid that the Freedmen's Insurgency was being covertly supported by Free Blacks and that they'd support a Union invasion if it were to happen. Free Blacks and their White allies in the Confederacy challenge this act and in Virginia and North Carolina, where there are large populations of Free Blacks, they take up arms in rebellion, but the attempts are quickly and easily crushed. New Orleans, which is home to the largest single concentration of Free People of Colour in the country, is spared this enslavement because it is under Union occupation, but it still causes mass emigration to the North and Liberia out of fear. Those enslaved by this act are originally granted as the property of those who caught them but this policy proves disastrous and later on they are taken as State property and managed by the central Confederate government instead of any private owner.
• Because there is no Panic of 1866 and because people are inspired/demoralised by the Confederate victory in the Civil War, the 1867 Reform Act is not passed in the United Kingdom which results in the Conservatives maintaining power and slowing democratisation in Britain.
• While they are supportive, both the Union and Confederacy are too busy dealing with one another to focus on assisting the Dominican Republic in the Dominican Restoration War in any way other than diplomatic. Some scant volunteer forces from the Union do join the Dominicans though. Despite this the Spanish are eventually ousted from the country and Dominica wins its independence years later than they otherwise would have.
• The combined forces of France, the Mexican Conservatives and the Confederacy are able to defeat the Mexican Republicans and the rule of the Mexican Empire is solidified.
• France offers to purchase Luxembourg from the Netherlands, this is protested by North Germany who threatens war with France over the issue, triggering the Luxembourg Crisis. As a compromise, Luxembourg is demilitarised, the Fortress of Luxembourg dismantled and control of the Grand Duchy is given to Belgium, in exchange the Franco-Belgian border is adjusted to the pre-1815 status, giving France land in the Namur and Hainaut regions. Belgium is unhappy with this compromise as they lose land integral to their nation and they become both more internally unstable and more paranoid of foreign interference.
• The Confederacy holds its second ever elections. The previous Vice President Alexander Stephens wins and becomes the second Confederate President while John C. Breckinridge becomes Vice President, officially taking their new positions the following year.

1868

• The National Union Party does not dissolve and instead remains a dominant party in the United States, effectively replacing the Republican Party but still appealing to War Democrats. Their primary platform is the reunification of the south into the Union but they also for the most part support the policies of Protectionism, pro-Big Business, Industrialisation, Bullionism, Expansionism, pro-Immigration, pro-racial integration and Secularism.
• The Slave Trade and other aspects of Slavery are not banned in the Spanish Empire around this time.
• In Spain the military led by General Juan Prim stage a coup d'état to overthrow the monarchy of Isabella II. However, it lacks support from the Liberal Union and the Progressists are split because many in those parties have come to believe following the defeat of the Union in the American Civil War that liberal revolutions cannot succeed long-term. Despite the lack of popular support the coup succeeds and Isabella is overthrown to be replaced by a military Junta which establishes a provisional government.
• Demoralised by the Confederate victory in the American Civil War, both the Cuban War of '68 and the Puerto Rican Grito de Lares never break out so the Spanish Empire remains stable for the time being.
• In the Union the ‘Southern Question’ or ‘Reunion’ becomes a major political discussion; whether or not to push to reunify with the Confederacy or not and how it should be done. The National Union Party is staunchly pro-Reunion while the Democratic Party is mostly anti-Reunion but there are are vocal pro-Reunionists in the party.
• The National Union Party and their nominee Ulysses Grant win the 1868 Election in the United States. William Seward becomes Vice President and Abraham Lincoln becomes Secretary of State.
• The Confederacy formalises the Confederate Secret Service Bureau by bringing together their many informal disparate elements. It acts as an intelligence and national security agency, primarily interested with protecting the Confederacy from Union subterfuge.
• The 13th Amendment is ratified in the United States which abolishes all Slavery. Prior to this however, Missouri, West Virginia, Maryland and Delaware all abolished slavery on their own which left Kentucky and Tennessee as the only slave states in the Union at the time, and they were both undergoing a process of gradual emancipation anyway.
• The Union gradually becomes more centralised, removing power from the states and consolidating it into the federal government. The Union is also free to implement pro-Industrial policies such as Protectionist tariffs without the solid south to oppose them, allowing them to better compete with Industrialised European markets.

1869

• The Vatican Council is held in Rome. Without the disruption of the Franco-Prussian War the Council discusses and codifies far more than it otherwise would have. It runs over the course of four years from 1869 to 1973. The changes made by the Council are disputed by some within the church, mainly Germans, Hungarians, French and Americans who break off in a schism to form the Old Catholic Churches, a split which is larger than it otherwise would have been due to some controversial rulings by the Council.
• The 14th Amendment of the United States Constitution is ratified which grants citizenship to all those born in the United States including former slaves, guarantees equal protection of the law, due process of the law and protection of fundamental rights to all citizens including former slaves, adjusts the way congressional representatives are allocated to be based on population including former slaves, and disqualifying individuals who engaged in rebellion against the government from holding public office.
• The Spanish Provisional Government ratifies a new constitution which, due to the absence of the Liberal Union from the new Cortes as the main advocate of Constitutional Monarchy, establishes the Spanish Republic. Francisco Serrano is elected as the first President of the Republic. The establishment of the Spanish Republic leads to the new government becoming unable to raise additional loans from Paribas with which it is reliant on financially and consequently they enter into a sovereign debt crisis.

1870

• The establishment of the Spanish Republic and the sovereign debt crisis causing higher unemployment and higher taxation enrages the Spanish peasantry and monarchists who turn to supporting the Carlist movement and the pretender to the throne Carlos VII. Carlist guerilla activity begins across the country and plans for a rebellion are put into motion. The rebellion begins in ernest when Carlos crosses the border into Navarre from Spain, sparking the Third Carlist War.
• The Franco-Prussian War is avoided in 1870 because there is no succession crisis in Spain and the French peoples demands for war are lessened by their victories in Mexico and in the Luxembourg Crisis.
• The Gambia is ceded from control of the United Kingdom to France in exchange for France renouncing their claim of the Mellacourie region in Sierra Leone.
• In 1870 a border dispute over the Public Land Strip (Oklahoma Panhandle) leads to the Union deciding to reinvade the South to force it to reunify. They raise an army and use their navy to blockade Southern ports. The South responds in kind and raises their own army. Fighting begins across the border territories, the Union holding the advantage and defeating the Confederacy in multiple key battles and threatening Richmond, Atlanta and the Mississippi. This is known as the War of 1870.
• Robert E. Lee, the General in Chief of the Confederate Army, dies of pneumonia while on campaign leading the Confederate Army in the War of 1870. His death is mourned across the Confederacy and he is recognised as the Father of the Nation. He is replaced as General in Chief by James Longstreet.

1871

• France intervenes in the War of 1870, their position on the Confederacy having shifted since 1867 and recognising their strategic value, sending their navy to break the blockade and intimidate the Union, and sending soldiers across the border via Mexico, who also soon after joins the war on the Confederate side.
• As part of the War of 1870, pro-Confederate militias rise up in rebellion in New Orleans against the Union occupation. This is followed shortly after by a French amphibious invasion of the city and Louisiana at large, eventually seizing control of the city after a hard fought battle with the Union garrison and the Native Guard. When Confederate troops later on arrive in the city they begin enslaving the Free People of Colour it causes conflict between them and French soldiers who attempt to protect them, but the French are ordered to back down by their leaders.
• Union backs down after some fighting with France and a new armistice is then negotiated between the Union and the Confederacy mediated by the United Kingdom. The new armistice includes the withdrawal of Union troops from the Confederate states including southern Louisiana but not including Tennessee and northern Virginia which return to their pre-war occupations, and making the border between the two more clear including handing the Public Land Strip to the Union and Arizona Territory to the Confederacy, the latter to serve as a buffer between the Union and Imperial Mexico. The Union is also awarded reparations for the damages and for the purchase of the Arizona Territory paid for by both France and the Confederacy.
• As a consequence of the continuation of slavery in the south and the capture of New Orleans, Blues music and by extension all of its derivatives such as Jazz, Ragtime and Swing are never developed.
• In reaction to the Vatican Council, North Germany at the behest of Federal Chancellor Otto von Bismarck begins the Kulturkampf as a way to curb Roman Catholic influence in North Germany, encourage the spread of Lutheranism and Old Catholicism and secularise the state. While deemed as a necessity it alienates Catholic South Germans from North Germany which will make unification more difficult in the future.
• The United States ratifies the 15th Amendment which prohibits the government from denying the right to vote on account of race.

1872

• The Carlist army successfully seizes control of Madrid and deposes the Republican government, ending the Spanish Republic and restoring the Kingdom of Spain ruled by King Carlos VII. The Bourbon Restoration marks the end of the Cuadrienio Democratico and the conclusion of the Carlist Wars. The new Carlist government is deeply reactionary, clerical and authoritarian but also federalist, granting autonomy to regions such as Catalonia and the Basque Country.
  
• The UK holds a general election in 1872 which the Conservatives win because of their success economically and in foreign policy, so maintain their hold on the country and continue to stifle attempts at further democratisation.
• The Public Land Strip is integrated into the state of Kansas so the Union can better stake their claim to it.
• In the 1872 Election the Democratic Party splits and runs two separate candidates, one Bourbon, one New Departure. As a result they lose by a landslide.
• France, Italy and Austria-Hungary arrange a secret alliance called the Venice Protocol wherein in the event of war between France and Prussia, France will withdraw from Rome and hand control to the Italians in exchange for their neutrality, at which point Austria-Hungary would declare war on Prussia and keep the south German states neutral.

1873

• Emperor Napoleon III of France dies due to his gallstones and compounding health problems. His 16 year old son Louis-Napoléon is crowned Emperor Napoleon IV, but France is partially governed by a regency until he reaches the age of majority of 21 in 1877. This regency is dominated by Empress Dowager Eugénie de Montijo and her conservative faction which implement authoritarian and clerical domestic policies and a belligerent anti-Prussian anti-Italian foreign policy as well as an expansion of the French military as to better match Prussia's.
• The Vatican Council concludes, in the end it codifies the doctrines of Filius Dei which was the incipit, Pastor Aeternus which includes the doctrine of Papal Infallibility, the Marian Dogmas which involves belief in the Immaculate Conception of the virgin Mary, Non Expedit Errorum which bars all Catholics from participating in organisations considered heretical as laid out by the 1864 Syllabus of Errors and the earlier policy of Non Expedit, Rerum Novarum which supports the rights of workers, the Pian Mass which standardises Catholic rites and replaces the Tridentine Mass, and the Doctrina Administratio which overhauls and expands the churches administration. The Vatican Council is one of the most important religious events of the modern era and completely overhauls the church and its relation with modernity, entrenching it as a deeply Reactionary organisation.
• The Panic of 1873 is avoided because of the reduced investment from Europeans in America, particularly in railroads and because Germany does not switch to the Gold standard at this time.
• King Ludwig II of Bavaria approaches his government for funds with which to construct the Herrenchiemsee but he is rejected and so he dismisses his Liberal ministry and replaces them with a Conservative dominated one, citing Non Expedit Errorum to justify this change. In response the Liberals attempt to declare the King to be mentally unfit to rule due to paranoia, however, this attempted self-coup fails due to lack of support and evidence to back their claim and the Liberals are discredited which results in a poor result for them in the Landtag election later that year. The new Conservative government, headed by the same Minister-President Otto von Bray-Steinburg, grants Ludwig the funds with which to complete his architectural projects.

1874

• The Democratic Party in the Union falls apart because of the loss of their main support base in the south, questions over what the party should become and being viewed as a pro-Confederate fifth column by many. It dissolves into multiple smaller parties giving the National Unionists virtually unrivaled dominance in government. These new parties include the the Columbia Party, the Farmer's Alliance, the Independent Party and the Labor Party. The largest of these successor parties is the Columbia Party, made up of the former Bourbon Democrats and Tammany Hall Democrats, who carry on most of the same party platform as the Democrats did.
• The National Union Party gradually becomes more accommodating to the Confederacy because reopening trade with both them and the pro-Confederate Europeans would revitalise the sluggish American economy. This process began following their defeat in the War of 1870 and then accelerated by the collapse of the Democratic Party. The Nationals are still pro-Reunion but abandon their policy of aggressive and forceful reunification and adopt a more diplomatic approach.
• The State of Maryland annexes the Eastern Shore of Virginia which was prior under Union military occupation.
• The Ottoman Empire responds to the series of floods and droughts that strike Anatolia by taking additional loans to pay for relief for the victims. Because there is no Panic of 1873 the Ottoman Empire does not raise taxes to pay its debts, nor does it default on its debts at this time, and the Great Eastern Crisis is temporarily avoided.

1875

• The Union drops the embargo's levied against countries that recognise the Confederacy as a way to revitalise their economy. The Union also later on opens up trade with the Confederacy to a limited degree. This has the desired effect of causing rapid economic growth.
• The Union passes the Coinage Act of 1875 which demonetises silver in favour of gold, which causes the value of silver to drop in reaction.
• Serb Rebels in Herzegovina supported by Montenegro and Serbia rise up in rebellion against the Ottoman Empire in reaction to ever worsening tax-farming levied by the local Beys. This rebellion does not trigger the start of a larger crisis however because the Ottoman economy is still afloat, albeit barely.
• Because there is no Panic of 1873 or Great Eastern Crisis, Egypt does not need to urgently repay its debts and so does not sell its shares in the Suez Canal.
• In 1875 a popular Ultramontanist revolt breaks out in Orvieto after its bishop, Antonio Briganti, is arrested by the Italian government for sedition and the people storm the local government buildings demanding his freedom. The Papal State supports this rebellion in an attempt to reestablish power over the lands lost to it in 1860 to Italy, leading to a war between it and Italy. France, at the behest of Empress Dowager Eugénie, intervenes on the side of the Papacy, sparking the Franco-Italian War, also known as the Fourth War of Italian Independence or the Roman War.
• France sees good early successes in its war against Italy, successfully defending Rome from attack and crossing the Alps into Italy.
• The outbreak of the Franco-Italian War results in calls within the Union to restart the war with the South and finally achieve Reunion, however, these attempts fail, even among National Unionists, and peace is maintained.
• The Herzegovinian rebels are successfully crushed by the Ottoman army, ending the Herzegovina Uprising of 1875.

1876

• Because of the growing strain on the infrastructure of Washington D.C and its proximity to the Confederacy putting it in potential danger, the capital of the United States is relocated to Philadelphia, the 16th Amendment to the U.S Constitution is ratified as part of this process. The original District of Columbia is absorbed into Maryland while a new district is carved out of Pennsylvania and New Jersey around Philadelphia and straddling the Delaware River. The city undergoes a massive expansion and architectural revitalisation project to accommodate the government and the Centennial International Exhibition happening the same year. The formal relocation of the Capital and the Exhibition both occur to coincide with the 100th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.
• Khedive Isma'il Pasha of Egypt begins a series of new modernisation projects in his country such as railways connecting Cairo to Asyut, Luxor to Aswan and Khartoum, and continuing his expansion plans for 'New Cairo' and the newly founded city of Ismailia. These modernisation projects however cause Isma'il to rack up even more debt than otherwise.
• With the ongoing conflict in Europe endangering their position diplomatically, the Confederacy formally abandons their claims on Kentucky and Missouri and dissolve their respective governments in exile as a way to improve their relations with the Union and pave the way for recognition. They alter their flag to reduce the number of stars from 13 to 11, but this is also unpopular because it is asymmetrical. They continue to claim rule over Tennessee and Union controlled Virginia.
• A group of rogue pro-Confederate militias, established by the Confederate Tennessee state government in exile, attempt a coup d'état of the Unionist Tennessee state government to reintegrate the state into the Confederacy, anxious that the Confederacy will soon renounce its claim on their state like it did Kentucky and Missouri. The Union military intervenes and the plot fails. The Confederate government attempts to distance themselves from the attackers.
• The Papal State claims rule over all of the territories it previously controlled in Italy, including the regions of Romagna, Umbria and Marche. This claim is recognised by France which contradicts their stance towards North Germany and they threaten intervention unless France backs down. France refuses on the grounds that those territories were illegally occupied by Italy in the first place.
• The United Kingdom and North Germany call for an international conference of the Great Powers and the Concert of Europe in order to resolve the ongoing Roman War. The conference is hosted in Brussels in Belgium. At the conference Spain and Austria-Hungary unequivocally supports France and the Papacy while Russia remains neutral at the urging of Bismarck, and as a result the conference fails to come to a peaceful resolution. North Germany declares war against France, escalating the Roman War into the Franco-Prussian War. The failure of the Brussels Conference of 1876 marks the final failure and collapse of the Old Concert of Europe.
• Belgium hosts the Brussels Conference as a diplomatic play to ensure their countries neutrality and safety in the ongoing Roman War as they fear that they may be invaded by the French or Prussians should the conflict escalate, however, the arrival of French and Prussian dignitaries angers the Belgian people who are still enraged by the Luxembourg Crisis and their handling of the 'Belgian Question' in the Austro-Prussian War, so the Conference triggers widespread protests and riots.
• Russia, following the failure of the Brussels Conference and feeling the time to be right, unilaterally declares the end of the Neutralisation of the Black Sea, in direct violation of the 1856 Treaty of Paris. Because of the ongoing Roman War, none of the Great Powers lift a finger to enforce it. It is even tacitly endorsed by Prussia and Otto von Bismarck.
• Italy formally lays claim to Nice and Savoy, the territories it gave to France in the 1860 Treaty of Turin in return for support for Italian unification. Italy justifies this by arguing that France has violated the treaty by opposing Italian unification and therefore it is null and void.
• Austria-Hungary begins to mobilise their army in accordance with the Venice Protocol, North Germany sees this and surmises their plans and so they do not invade France, instead the French invade North Germany in an attempt to distract them from the Austro-Hungarian mobilisation. The Prussians however have the decisive advantage in the field because if their larger army, superior tactics and defensive advantage.
• Fearing for their safety, forced to pick between the protection of their northern territories within the North German Confederation or their southern territories outside of it and citing the Treaty of Prague in which they are obligated to aid North Germany in a defensive war, the Grand Duchy of Hesse-Darmstadt allies itself with North Germany. Shortly after the Grand Duchy of Baden also allies with North Germany because of their strong anti-French stance and because their ducal family is closely related to the royal family of Prussia. Bavaria and Württemberg meanwhile opt for neutrality in violation of the Treaty of Prague because they are, with the exception of the Bavarian ruled Palatinate, not directly threatened by the war, the fact North Germany is technically the aggressor, diplomatic pressure from Austria-Hungary, their distaste with the Kulturkampf, their good relations with France and their sympathy for the Papacy.
• Austria-Hungary, as part of the revised Venice Protocol, declares war against North Germany under the casus beli that North Germany is the aggressor against France and is destabilising the balance of power in Europe. In reality they seek to reestablish their own prestige and power following their defeat to Prussia in the 1866 Brothers War and to break up the Prussian dominated North German Confederation. This further escalates the Roman War into the Second Austro-Prussian War, now also known as the European War.
• Bavaria and Württemberg, despite Austria-Hungarys entry into the war, remain in a state of armed neutrality. Prussia threatens the states with invasion if they do not comply and align with them. The two states agree to a defensive alliance against Prussia in case of invasion.
• Italy declares war against Austria-Hungary, although very little fighting takes place due to both states being engaged elsewhere.
• The United States ratifies the 17th Amendment, also known as the Blaine Amendment, in late 1876, which prohibits direct government aid to religious schools. This amendment is largely anti-Catholic and anti-Immigrant since most private religious schools are Catholic and most Catholics in the United States are Immigrants. The Amendment passes due to both Catholics aversion to engaging in politics due to the doctrine of Non Expedit Errorum and because of the stronger National Unionist presence in government pushing for secularisation.

1877

• Russia in a secret alliance with North Germany begins mobilising its military and threatens Austria-Hungary to stand down and seek peace, seemingly having changed their stance following the Brussels Conference. This causes foreign minister of Austria-Hungary Frederich von Beust to resign out of shame for the failure of his foreign policy and Gyula Andrassy take the position. The Habsburgs, unwilling to fight a three front war against three great powers simultaneously, acquiesces and seeks peace with North Germany and Italy. In the peace Prussia annexes the region of Austrian Silesia, they are made to pay reparations to both Prussia and Italy, and acknowledge Prussian hegemony over Germany yet again.
• North Germany invades France, smashing their weaker and divided army. During this counterattack the Prussians cross the border into the Palatinate in order to better attack the French forces, partially occupying the region. The French, in their desperation, pulls soldiers away from Italy to defend against the incoming Germans, allowing the Italians to reverse the gains France made previously and capture Rome itself. Bavaria and Württemberg, now that Austria-Hungary has withdrawn from the war, are forced to tolerate the invasion and soon after each ally themselves with North Germany and declare war against France.
• With France distracted and likely to lose the war meaning they're unable to support them, Emperor Maximilian of Mexico is overthrown in a coup d'état by the Mexican conservatives because of his liberal principles which clash with theirs. The United Mexican States are restored, as an interim government until a new monarch is decided upon. Following this Mexico legalises slavery and becomes closer diplomatically with the Confederacy which they model their new government after.
• Italian and French troops threaten the enter the region of Haute-Savoie in France so Switzerland occupies the region as stipulated in the 1815 Treaty of Paris in order to ensure the regions neutrality.
• Hesse-Darmstadt and Baden officially join the North German Confederation, which renames itself to the German Confederation, for the sake of protection from France, the reunification of Hesse-Darmstadt, and because of familial ties between the royal families of Baden and Prussia.
• A military coup d'état in France by anti-War, Gallicanist and Liberal factions removes Eugenie from power and elevates Napoleon IV to full authority, nearing but not quite at the age of majority, although as a de facto puppet of the coup cadre for the time being.
• France seeks peace with Italy and Germany in 1877 to end the Roman War. France is forced to pay war reparations to both Germany and Italy, Italy annexes Nice and Savoy which it previously gave to France in 1860, and France must acknowledge Prussian hegemony over Germany. Germany attempts to annex Alsace-Lorraine but the British consider it to be too harsh and destabilising and so threaten intervention, combined with Bismarcks objections forces the Germans to back down. Switzerland withdraws from Haute-Savoie once hostilities conclude, handing the territory to Italy. The Papal State refuses to negotiate and is subsequently occupied and annexed by Italy, Pope Pius is however permitted to stay in the Vatican.
• The French people are outraged by the defeat in the Roman War and begin protesting against the new government, particularly in Paris which descends into mob rule. The French government in response sends soldiers against the revolutionaries. Napoleon IV uses this unrest to his advantage however and unexpectedly sides with the protestors, heaping blame for the defeat on the coup cadre and using their unpopularity to dismiss them from power along with other rivals in government. At first Napoleon attempts to reassert total control as a populist monarch but he is forced by the revolutionaries to adopt a new more democratic constitution. This event is called the French Revolution of 1877 or the August Revolution.
• Germany using funds from war reparations and to encourage integration with the south establishes the German Mark as the new currency, backed solely by Gold instead of Silver. This, combined with the end of the Roman War, the expansion of the German Confederation and the introduction of capital from war reperations begins an economic boom in Germany called the Gründerzeit, but it also causes a devaluation of silver as it is gradually demonetised.
• The Union recognises the independence of the Confederacy and passes the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, also known as the Secession Amendment, to allow for this. The Amendment allows states to legally secede retroactively prior to 1861 but strictly prohibits it from then on. The Union, recognises Confederate control over Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia with the exception of West Virginia and the Eastern Shore, and the Indian Territory. They alter their flag to reduce the number of stars from 37 to 27 but this change is very unpopular and the new flag is nicknamed the 'Mutilated Banner'. The Confederacy in tern recognises Union control over Tennessee, West Virginia and the eastern shore of Virginia and alter their flag to reduce the number of stars from 11 to 10. The two nations do however continue to dispute the Arizona Territory. The Unions recognition of the Confederacy causes all the other nations who previously had refused to recognise them change their stance and formally establish diplomatic relations with the South.

1878

• The German Confederation is reformed and renamed to the German Empire, with the King of Prussia Wilhelm I crowned as Emperor.
• Argentina annexes territory from the Gran Chaco region of Paraguay up to the Rio Verde. This causes Brazil to claim the rest of Paraguays claims on the Gran Chaco for themselves.
• The United States ratifies the 19th Amendment of the Constitution, also known as the Cullom-Struble Amendment, which bans plural marriages and polygamy. This amendment largely targets Mormons who practice polygamy for religious reasons. The amendment is able to pass because of the National Unionist dominance in government and the greater centralisation of the federal government.
• A case is taken to the Supreme Court over the secession of Tennessee as a local resident argues that Tennessee legally seceded in 1861 and therefore is not part of the United States. The Supreme Court rules that Tennessee did indeed legally secede in 1861 but it legally rejoined the Union in 1866 which is indissoluble.
• The Independent Party and the Farmers' Alliance merge together into a single party called the Greenback Party. This new party, with the combined support of The Grange and the former New Departure Democrats, overtakes the Columbia Party to become the largest opposition to the National Unionists. The emergence of the Greenbacks to replace the Columbia Party as the primary opposition ends the Third Party System and begins the Fourth.
• The German Empire begins to bring the Kulturkampf to an end following the death of Pius IX and to further encourage integration with the south. Bismarck and Pope Leo XIII negotiate a compromise and in 1878 Germany passes the first Mitigation Laws.
• Over-investment in railroads in the United States and over-investment in the German Empire from the Gründerzeit, the devaluation of silver due to the Coinage Act of 1875 and the establishment of the Gold-Backed German Mark causing silver-backed currencies to drop in value, overproduction of cotton due to improved farming techniques better access to Indian cotton via the Suez Canal causing the price to steadily decline, fraud in the Confederate economy due to lack of oversight and a need to make up for losses in the cotton trade, and poor oversight and monetary policy in global central banks, all combined contribute to a global financial crisis called the Panic of 1878, the largest of it's kind in modern history. The trigger of the crisis is the sudden bankruptcy of a company on the London stock exchange trading in cotton which was involved in a fraud scandal. This Panic of 1878 marks the beginning of a period of global economic crisis and stagnation called the Great Depression, causing bank closures and high unemployment. In reaction to the Panic and Depression, governments around the world abandon policies of Free Trade and adopt Protectionist policies, which inadvertently only exacerbates the issue.

1879

• The people of the Palatinate petition to join the German Empire while still being part of the Kingdom of Bavaria because of renewed German Nationalism, because the region is separated from the rest of Bavaria and because they wish to use the new German Mark instead of the comparatively worthless South German Gulden. The Bavarian government eventually acquiesces to pressure both internally and externally and the Palatinate joins the Empire.
• The Panic of 1878 causes a drop in material exports and capital imports in the Ottoman economy which it is dependent on financially. Unable to pay back their colossal public debt and struggling to find new creditors both domestically and overseas, the Ottoman Empire goes bankrupt and defaults on its sovereign debt. To help restabilise the economy the Ottomans raise taxes across the Empire and divert two-thirds of their revenue to debt repayment, however it is still not enough to satisfy all their creditors. The tax hike across the Empire triggers discontent and marks the start of the Great Eastern Crisis.
• As a consequence of the recent Roman War and Andrassy's aversion to Russia, the League of the Three Emperors is not formed in time for the Great Eastern Crisis and there is no strong consensus between Vienna, Berlin and St. Petersburg regarding the Crisis.
• Because of the Panic of 1878 and the Great Eastern Crisis the Egyptian government's colossal debt, accounting £175,000,000, becomes untenable as they can no longer borrow any more funds. Khedive Isma'il, in an effort to raise funds, sells his countries shares in the Suez Canal to the British.
• The Dominican Republic and the Confederacy together invade Haiti with the intent to annex it into Dominica and unify Hispaniola, to ensure economic interests in reaction to the Panic of 1878 and to get revenge for the Haitian Revolution. This is known as the Second Dominican-Haitian War (the first being the Dominican War of Independence). Slavery is legalised in the newly annexed territory but not in the rest of Dominica, the Haitian people resist this with guerrilla warfare, particularly in the south on the Tiburon Peninsula. Dominica and the Confederacy agree to take on Haitis debts to France.
• The explorer Henry Morton Stanley, working under the orders of King Leopold II of Belgium, travels to the Congo with the goal of establishing a colony for Leopold and the International Association of the Congo. Because of the poor timing of the Panic of 1878, the French do not dispatch Pierre Savorgnan de Brazza on his expedition to the Congo, and so Stanley is unchallenged in his colonial project for the time being.

1880

• The state government of Maryland relocates its capital from Annapolis to Washington because of its better facilities for a government to operate and its symbolism as the former capital of the nation.
• The Khedivate of Egypt goes bankrupt and defaults on its colossal sovereign debt, unable to repay it. In response the European powers establish the Public Debt Commission to oversee Egypts finances and supervise the repayment of their debts, primarily under the joint control of the United Kingdom and France but also nominally including influence from Austria-Hungary, Germany, Russia and Italy.
• The Kingdom of Württemberg, due to it's collapsing economy and the threat of revolution, joins the German Empire. This leaves Bavaria as the last German state not in the German Empire.

1881

• Emperor Napoleon IV of France marries Princess Beatrice of the United Kingdom, the youngest daughter of Queen Victoria, and she is subsequently crowned as Empress Beatrice of France. While their wedding is criticised as an indulgent waste of money at a time of economic hardship, it is also considered a welcome distraction from those hardships and provides stability and certainty for the future of France and it's monarchy.

 

[Onkel Willie]

It will be interesting to see how this differs from my own ongoing TL on the same subject.

 

[Cryptic]

Maybe the CSA will reach out to Brazil, Cuba, Paraguay, Yucatan Mexico and other areas where planter economies and the uhmm..... " traditional social hierarchy" is respected and honored.

I just cant see the CSA leaving western and middle TN in the union. Maybe demand a referendum with the understood outcome that east TN goes union and the bulk goes CSA?

 

[vonstraya]

Maybe the CSA will reach out to Brazil, Cuba, Paraguay, Yucatan Mexico and other areas where planter economies and the uhmm..... " traditional social hierarchy" is respected and honored.

I just cant see the CSA leaving western and middle TN in the union. Maybe demand a referendum with the understood outcome that east TN goes union and the bulk goes CSA?

They definitely will be reaching out to these fellow traditionalist states. They already have good relations with Imperial Mexico and they have plans regarding Cuba and Haiti. Their relationship with Brazil however is more complicated though, since Emperor Pedro II is very liberal minded. We haven't gotten up to the implementation of the Golden Circle part of the timeline just yet, that's still a couple of decades away.

The CSA certainly isn't happy about losing Tennessee and in this timeline they fight to reclaim it multiple times, but the Union isn't exactly asking nicely and they have more guns.

 

[PGSBHurricane]

They definitely will be reaching out to these fellow traditionalist states. They already have good relations with Imperial Mexico and they have plans regarding Cuba and Haiti. Their relationship with Brazil however is more complicated though, since Emperor Pedro II is very liberal minded. We haven't gotten up to the implementation of the Golden Circle part of the timeline just yet, that's still a couple of decades away.

The CSA certainly isn't happy about losing Tennessee and in this timeline they fight to reclaim it multiple times, but the Union isn't exactly asking nicely and they have more guns.

I think Tennessee is a conundrum in and of itself. Eastern Tennessee was pro-Union but so was the area along the Tennessee River in the Western part of the state. It was the Nashville area that was the swing region IOTL and largely made the difference between rejecting secession early in 1861 and then approving it later that year. So it would definitely be a battleground between the Union and CSA anyway.

 

[Cryptic]

Martinique might also be CSA cultural exchange focus.

Historically, the island was very uhmm..... "traditional" in regards to the agricultural labor and the most defiant French possession regarding France's emancipation order. As a result full, or de facto full slavery continued to exist on the island following emancipation. Martinique's defiance was to the extent that they also continued to import new slaves from Africa after the practice was internationally banned.

 

[vonstraya]

I've added a bunch of new content to the most recent version of the timeline covering the Roman War and the aftermath going up to 1879. Didn't think it was worthwhile to make a whole new post so I've just tacked it on to the last one. Thoughts?

 

[Pax_Nihil]

I've added a bunch of new content to the most recent version of the timeline covering the Roman War and the aftermath going up to 1879. Didn't think it was worthwhile to make a whole new post so I've just tacked it on to the last one. Thoughts?

Everything I've read so far is fucking awesome and I can't wait for more

 

[JanWellem]

In accordance with the Catholic Churches policy of Non Expedit Errorum, Bavaria cracks down on Liberal and Socialist organisations such as the German People's Party.

I very much doubt that the liberal Bavarian government of Adolph von Pfretzschner (Bavaria had a whole succession of liberal governments during the reign of Ludwig II) would crack down on Socialist let alone Liberal organisations and parties. It was this very reason why Bismarck IOTL forced his resignation.

They alter their flag to reduce the number of stars from 13 to 11, but this is also unpopular because it is asymmetrical.

The CSA should ditch the Stainless Banner or Blood-Stained Banner, which IMO were rather poor flag designs anyway, and return to the Stars and Bars flag they had until 1863.

 

[vonstraya]

I very much doubt that the liberal Bavarian government of Adolph von Pfretzschner (Bavaria had a whole succession of liberal governments during the reign of Ludwig II) would crack down on Socialist let alone Liberal organisations and parties. It was this very reason why Bismarck IOTL forced his resignation.

Von Pfretzschner isn't the Minister-President of Bavaria in this timeline since Bavaria isn't part of the German Empire as of 1873 resulting in a different government, instead Otto von Bray-Steinburg holds the position since he never resigned in 1871 in reaction to the Kulturkampf.

However, I really do need to work out more of the details on the internal politics of Bavaria in the aftermath of this alternate Vatican Council since it would inevitably lead to a clash between the Liberal and Catholic factions in the government and state. I kinda just handwaved it before as a wishy-washy *crackdown*. What are your thoughts on how I could improve?

The CSA should ditch the Stainless Banner or Blood-Stained Banner, which IMO were rather poor flag designs anyway, and return to the Stars and Bars flag they had until 1863.

I think the reasoning behind the change is valid enough and I don't see much reason why in universe they'd change it back. Plus the whole timeline is named after the flag soooooo 🤷‍♂️

 

[JanWellem]

Von Pfretzschner isn't the Minister-President of Bavaria in this timeline since Bavaria isn't part of the German Empire as of 1873 resulting in a different government, instead Otto von Bray-Steinburg holds the position since he never resigned in 1871 in reaction to the Kulturkampf.

However, I really do need to work out more of the details on the internal politics of Bavaria in the aftermath of this alternate Vatican Council since it would inevitably lead to a clash between the Liberal and Catholic factions in the government and state. I kinda just handwaved it before as a wishy-washy *crackdown*. What are your thoughts on how I could improve?

Even under Otto von Bray-Steinburg most of the ministers were Liberals and the position as President of the Council in Bavaria was more of a primus inter pares than that of an all powerful head of government like the Chancellor of Prussia, so I might see Bavaria banning Socialists, but definately not Liberals, who were supported by the rising bourgeois class.

 

[Zireael]

I've added a bunch of new content to the most recent version of the timeline covering the Roman War and the aftermath going up to 1879. Didn't think it was worthwhile to make a whole new post so I've just tacked it on to the last one. Thoughts?

Might just be me but that seems to have made the post veeery long and the bullet points just blur together. Sub-headings would be lovely to break things up a bit.

 

[vonstraya]

Might just be me but that seems to have made the post veeery long and the bullet points just blur together. Sub-headings would be lovely to break things up a bit.

Fair enough. I do need to work on presentation but ATM I'm more focused on getting the content straight. But I'll add some sub headings to break things up a bit now.