First Draft of Timeline
Hi! Hope you, the reader, are doing well and thanks for taking the time to read this. I'm only new to this forum but I've been chipping away at an alternate history for some time now that I call 'Blood-Stained South' about a southern victory in the civil war, very original I know but I just wanted to try my hand at it anyway. I wanted to drop an outline of the timeline as I've written so far to hopefully get some input and advice on where to go next, correct any errors I've made and get some general feedback. (Also note that I have a more detailed day-by-day timeline written up, this is just a more general overview)
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And that's what I have so far in brief, starting in 1863 and going up to 1878. I'd love to hear and thoughts, questions, corrections or opinions on it. I also have a couple of short stories written in this setting which I can post if y'all are interested.
Some things I am still trying to figure out is; What would occur in the Civil War following a Confederate Victory at Gettysburg (I'm not a big military history buff unfortunately)? If there would be an economic crisis in lieu of the Panic of 1873 and if so when? What the Confederacy would do with the Indian Tribes who supported them in the war? How Germany could unify without a Franco-Prussian War and/or how could a Franco-Prussian War break out in this timeline? And when an opportune time for a coup by the Mexican Conservatives against Emperor Maximilian because of his liberal principles would occur? Any assistance with answering these questions in particular would be greatly appreciated.
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- The Confederacy wins the Battle of Gettysburg because the 1st Minnesota refuse to suicidally charge Wilcox's brigades allowing them to flank and overrun the Union defences on Cemetery Ridge. Following the battle the Confederates then capture the city of Harrisburg, lay waste to the surrounding areas to damage the Unions morale and economy before returning back to home soil.
- The New York draft riots escalate into full blown rebellion and the city descends into a miniature urban civil war of its own. The army cannot react quickly because of the dire situation in Pennsylvania. The riot causes a fire which spreads throughout the city causing widespread destruction and death. The fire is eventually put out and the rebellion is quelled but only at great loss of life and property.
- Because of the Confederate Victory at Gettysburg the Union is forced to divert troops away from the Western Theater and to the Eastern Theater, slowing progress in the west and allowing the Confederates there to better prepare.
- The Democrats under McClellan win the 1864 Election and oust sitting President Abraham Lincoln. McClellan is pro-war and seeks to defeat the Confederacy but the official policy of the Democratic Party is to sue for peace which is the biggest reason for why they were elected.
- McClellan shifts the Union war strategy and takes a more cautious and defensive approach when invading the Confederacy which he believes will be successful and save more lives, but this is a blunder and the Confederacy is able to exploit this to their advantage despite their otherwise faltering position.
- A Copperhead Democrat supporter attempts to assassinate President McClellan because of his resistance to peace with the Confederacy but they miss completely and McClellan is unharmed. The attempt incites conflict between the War Democrats and Copperheads as members of the Democratic Party are accused of orchestrating the attempt to put Vice President George Pendleton into power.
- The Democrats force McClellans hand and the Union seeks peace with the Confederacy. In 1865 an armistice is agreed to, the treaty is mediated by Brazilian Emperor Dom Pedro II. The Confederacy takes with them all eleven secessionist states as well as the Indian Territory. They do not control but continue to dispute Missouri, Kentucky and West Virginia. There are however still disputed territories whose ownership is not clearly defined such as in the Arizona Territory and Public Land Strip. The Union does not yet recognise the independence of the Confederacy because recognition would require a constitutional amendment and the National Unionists in Congress block it from happening.
- Slaves freed by the Union during the Civil War mostly flee to the north en masse but some using weapons left for them by the Union Army begin an armed guerrilla insurrection within the Confederacy to free more slaves known as the Freedmen's Insurgency. This rebellion is covertly and unofficially supported by the Union.
- Abraham Lincoln is not assassinated and continues on as a part of the National Union Party, but decides to take more of a supportive role in the National Union Party rather than its face and later becoming a cabinet member in government.
- A War Democrat supporter shoots President McClellan in an attempted assassination. McClellan survives but is permanently paralysed from the waist down. The attempted assassination is highly controversial and his subsequent trial becomes politicised, leading to riots between War Democrats, Copperheads and National Unionists.
- The Confederacy reorganises the Provost Guard to adjust for peacetime duties including acting as gendarmerie, despite their name, and as a secret police used to stamp out rebellion in covert operations, primarily interested in suppressing the Freedmen's Insurgency which both the Regular Military and Home Guard struggle to accomplish.
- France and the United Kingdom recognise the independence of the Confederacy after the conclusion of the Civil War which further legitimises them. This is strongly protested by the Union with economic sanctions but they do not act on it militarily.
- The perceived instability in North America, the ongoing tensions between the Union and Confederacy and the poor relationship between the United States and European powers discourages European investment in the growing American economy. While there is still a lot of investment in the rapidly industrialising Union, it is notably less than otherwise. The Confederacy receives even less European investment because of ethical concerns surrounding slavery. Instead Europeans focus more of their investments and later Imperial ambitions in Latin America, Asia and Africa. This results in the American rail network being smaller and growing slower than otherwise.
- The Confederacy intervenes in the Second Franco-Mexican War on the side of France in exchange for support in paying their debts, rebuilding their economy and for concessions in the new Mexican Empire. The Confederate soldiers are highly effective at fighting the Mexicans, more-so than their French counterparts, because of experience with the terrain and the enemy from the Mexican-American War. The Union supports the Mexican Republicans but their support is limited due to the distances involved.
- Because of their intervention in Mexico, President McClellan threatens war with the Confederacy but congress does not support him and the French threaten to protect the Confederacy, even though they have no interest in following through, so he is forced to back down. This triggers a constitutional crisis within the Union over the powers that Congress and the President have over military matters.
- Unionist and Confederate forces clash in northern Mexico during the crisis.
- The Confederacy slowly abandons the doctrine of States' Rights and gradually becomes more centralised and authoritarian, embracing the proto-Fascist philosophy of George Fitzhugh. This gives rise to a factional split in the Confederate government between Southern Nationalists, also known as Fitzhughians, centred in the Deep South and Jeffersonians centered in the Upper South
- The Confederacy enslaves all Free People of Colour, declaring that black people are an inherently servile race, and paranoid that the Freedmen's Insurgency was being supported by Free People of Colour and that they'd support a Union invasion if it were to happen. Free People of Colour and their White Allies in the Confederacy challenge this act and in New Orleans they take up arms in rebellion, but this attempt is crushed. Other Free People of Colour flee the country, primarily to the Union or Liberia. Those enslaved by this act are taken as State property and managed by the central Confederate government instead of any private owner.
- The National Union Party does not dissolve and instead remains a dominant party in the United States, effectively replacing the Republican Party.
- While they are supportive, both the Union and Confederacy are too busy dealing with one another to focus on assisting the Dominican Republic in the Dominican Restoration War in any way other than diplomatic. Despite this the Spanish are eventually ousted from the country and Dominica wins its independence.
- The combined forces of France, the Mexican Conservatives and the Confederacy are able to defeat the Mexican Republicans and the rule of the Mexican Empire is solidified.
- France offers to purchase Luxembourg from the Netherlands, this is protested by North Germany who threatens war with France over the issue, triggering the Luxembourg Crisis. As a compromise Luxembourg is annexed by Belgium and in exchange the Belgian border with France is returned to the pre-1815 status giving France land in Namur and Hainaut.
- The 1867 Reform Act is not passed in the United Kingdom which results in the Conservatives maintaining power.
- In Spain several army officers and politicians attempt a coup d'état to overthrow the monarchy but the attempt fails due to lack of support.
- In the Union the ‘Southern Question’ or ‘Reunion’ becomes a major political discussion; whether or not to push to reunify with the Confederacy or not. The National Union Party is staunchly pro-Reunion while the Democratic Party is mostly anti-Reunion but there are are vocal pro-Reunionists in the party.
- The National Union Party and their nominee Ulysses Grant win the 1868 Election in the United States. Abraham Lincoln while still active in the party decides not to run despite being offered the candidacy.
- The Confederacy formalises the Confederate Secret Service Bureau by bringing together their many disparate elements. It acts as an intelligence and national security agency, primarily interested with protecting the Confederacy from the Union.
- Following the Boshin War and the Meiji Restoration, the new government of Japan begins a policy of rapid modernisation but also holds back on most modernising social reforms out of fear of provoking a rebellion, maintaining the mantra of 'Western Technology, Japanese Spirit'. As a result the Satsuma Rebellion never occurs but the tensions between the aristocracy and lower classes remain high.
- The 13th Amendment is ratified in the United States which abolishes all Slavery. Prior to this however, Missouri, West Virginia, Maryland and Delaware all abolished slavery on their own which left Kentucky as the only slave state in the Union at the time, and they were undergoing a process of gradual emancipation anyway.
- The Union gradually becomes more centralised, removing power from the states and consolidating it into the federal government.
- The Franco-Prussian War is avoided because there is no succession crisis in Spain and the French peoples demands for war are lessened by their victories in Mexico and in the Luxembourg Crisis.
- In 1870 a border dispute over the Public Land Strip (Oklahoma Panhandle) leads to the Union deciding to reinvade the South to force it to reunify. They raise an army and use their navy to blockade Southern ports. France fails to respond because they have no intention to go to war with the Union and North Germany threatens them in tern. The South responds in kind and raises their own army. Fighting begins across the border territories, the Union holding the advantage and defeating the Confederacy in multiple key battles. This is known as the War of 1870.
- The United Kingdom intervenes in the War of 1870 because their economic interests are under threat so they send their navy to break the blockade and intimidate the Union. This succeeds and the Union backs down, a new armistice is then negotiated between the Union and the Confederacy mostly based on the 1865 Armistice but making the borders much more clear including handing the Public Land Strip to the Union.
- As a result of the War of 1870 the Provost Guards duties as gendarmerie and secret police are split off into into a new organisation, the Internal Security Commission, to better organise and streamline the organisation.
- The UK holds a general election in 1872 which the Conservatives win because of their success economically and in foreign policy, so maintain their hold on the country and continue to stifle attempts at further democratisation.
- In the 1872 Election the Democratic Party splits and runs two seperate candidates, one Conservative, one Progressive. As a result they lose by a landslide.
- The Democratic Party in the Union falls apart because of the loss of their main support base in the south, questions over what the party should become and being viewed as a pro-Confederate fifth column by many. It dissolves into multiple smaller parties giving the National Unionists virtually unrivalled dominance in government.
- Emperor Napoleon III of France dies due to his gallstones and compounding health problems. His 16 year old son Louis-Napoléon is crowned Emperor Napoleon IV, but France is partially governed by a regency until he reaches the age of majority of 21 in 1877. Liberal factions in France use the minority period to advance their own goals of democratisation and liberalisation.
- The Panic of 1873 is avoided because of the reduced investment from Europeans in America, particularly in railroads and because Germany does not switch to the Gold standard.
- The Public Land Strip is integrated into the State of Kansas so the Union can better stake their claim to it.
- The remnants of the Democratic Party reform into the United Labor Party, formerly called the The Social Democratic Workingmen's Party of North America; a coalition of Rural Christian Conservatives from The Grange and Leftist Labor Unions from the Knights of Labor, both groups empowered by the lack of slaves and sharecroppers to compete with. They are generally pro-Labour, anti-Big Business, anti-Immigration, Protectionist, Isolationist, pro-Welfare, pro-Fiat currency, anti-Reunion and anti-Expansionist. However there is conflict within the party between Leftist and Conservative factions primarily over social issues such as Race and Religion. The emergence of Labor ends the Third Party System and begins the Fourth.
- The National Union Party gradually becomes more accomodating to the Confederacy because reopening trade with both them and the pro-Confederate Europeans would revitalise the sluggish American economy. This process began following their defeat in the War of 1870, then accelerated by the collapse of the Democratic Party and finally the emergence of the Labor Party. The Nationals are still pro-Reunion but abandon their policy of aggressive and forceful reunification and adopt a more diplomatic approach.
- The Union drops the economic sanctions levied against countries that recognise the Confederacy as a way to revitalise their economy. The Union also later on opens up trade with the Confederacy to a limited degree. This has the desired effect of causing rapid economic growth.
- The Confederacy and Dominica together invade Haiti with the intent to annex it into the Dominican Republic and unify Hispaniola, to ensure Confederate economic interests and to get revenge for the Haitian Revolution. This is known as the Second Dominican-Haitian War (the first being the Dominican War of Independence). Slavery is legalised in the newly annexed territory but not in the rest of Dominica, while the regular army is defeated the Haitian people continue to resist with guerrilla warfare.
- Because of the growing strain on the infrastructure of Washington D.C and its proximity to the Confederacy putting it in potential danger, the capital of the United States is relocated to Philadelphia. The original District of Columbia is absorbed into Maryland while a new district is carved out of Pennsylvania and New Jersey around Philadelphia and straddling the Delaware River.
- The Union eventually recognises the independence of the Confederacy and passes the 16th Amendment to the Constitution to allow for this. They alter their flag to reduce the number of stars from 37 to 26 but this change is unpopular. The Confederacy also recognises Union control over Missouri and Kentucky and alter their flag to reduce the number of stars from 13 to 11 but this is also unpopular because it is asymmetrical.
And that's what I have so far in brief, starting in 1863 and going up to 1878. I'd love to hear and thoughts, questions, corrections or opinions on it. I also have a couple of short stories written in this setting which I can post if y'all are interested.
Some things I am still trying to figure out is; What would occur in the Civil War following a Confederate Victory at Gettysburg (I'm not a big military history buff unfortunately)? If there would be an economic crisis in lieu of the Panic of 1873 and if so when? What the Confederacy would do with the Indian Tribes who supported them in the war? How Germany could unify without a Franco-Prussian War and/or how could a Franco-Prussian War break out in this timeline? And when an opportune time for a coup by the Mexican Conservatives against Emperor Maximilian because of his liberal principles would occur? Any assistance with answering these questions in particular would be greatly appreciated.