Blood in the Sand: A 1998 Taliban – Iran War Timeline

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Blood in the Sand: A 1998 Taliban – Iran War Timeline

Setting
On August 8th, 1998, a detachment of the main Taliban army storms the city of Mazar-i-Sharif , a headquarters of the Afghan Northern Alliance(NA) and long standing symbol of the ongoing civil war between the two sides.

As retribution for the June 1997 massacre of 3000 Taliban prisoners by Abdul Malik Pahlawan, Taliban forces begin to massacre thousands of captured NA soldiers, noncombatants and their perceived collaborators.

Among those killed are 8 Iranian diplomats out of a staff of 10 and one Iranian state news agency correspondent after a small band of Taliban troops seize the city’s Iranian consulate. The rest are taken hostage.

This came on the same day that several Pakistani diplomats relayed to Tehran an assurance from the Taliban that the safety of the Iranian consulates and diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif were guaranteed as the occupation of the city commenced.

After receiving demands from Tehran for information on the status of the diplomats, and wishing to the hide the killings from the world, a Taliban spokesman in the days following the capture of the city, declares to outside media that the status of the Iranian diplomatic staff is unknown.

Tehran protests the statement, levying responsibility on the Taliban government to produce information on the whereabouts of the diplomats.

A false investigatory commission is started by Kabul in days after August 8th.

On September 10th, results of the investigation are announced to the world by a Taliban spokesman for the office of the Taliban’s Ambassador to Pakistan, Abdul Hakim Mujahid.

According to results of the investigation,the diplomats' bodies had been found at a mountain near Mazar-i-Sharif. In addition, the statement declared that at the time of the city’s capture, the Iranian consulate had been empty.

The same night on Iranian state television, the Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement as response to the Taliban's report, declaring the dead diplomats as martyrs, comparing them to the soldiers who died defending the nation’s borders during the Iran-Iraq War. In addition, the statement also called on the Taliban to return the bodies of the diplomats immediately, return several other Iranian hostages that the Taliban had detained, and to arrest those who carried out the attack, as Tehran holds both the Taliban and the Government of Pakistan responsible.

On September 11th, Mohammed Omar, known to his subordinates and the Afghan people as Mullah Omar, declared in a public admission that Taliban soldiers had “either intentionally or unintentionally” killed the diplomats during the capture of Mazar-i-Sharif in the previous month, causing a massive uproar for retributive violence by the people of Tehran.

At the same time the Taliban began their assault on the Northern Alliance-held town of Bamiyan; a home to a large number of Afghani Shiites.

Though president Mohammad Khatami urged restraint and patience as he showed his willingness to defer temporarily to the United Nations to determine blame for the murder of the diplomats, calls by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, former president Hashemi Rafsanjani and the people of Iran for a retaliatory intervention to prevent a second round of sectarian-motivated killings in Bamiyan give Ayatollah Khamenei a reason to consider a military solution to Taliban problem.

With crowds of angry Iranians gathered outside his Tehran residence shouting “Death to the Taliban! Death to the Taliban!”, and with the Iranian state television agency broadcasting that they had proof that Mohammed Omar himself ordered the attack on the consulate himself after several Iranian officials said they had been on the phone with their counterparts when the shooting in the consulate stated, the Ayatollah had all the evidence he needed.

With a fresh round of wargames completed only days prior, on September 12th, 1998, Ayatollah Khamenei, angered by the massacre of the diplomats, fearful of another round of Shia killings should Bamiyan fall to the Taliban, and secretly seeking to aid their allies in the Northern Alliance annihilate the Taliban and push Pakistani influence from their borders, unilaterally assumes supreme command of the armed forces and announces to the 70,000 Revolutionary Guard troops stationed along the eastern border to advance into Afghanistan.

Their goals:
  1. Crush the Taliban in Herat, Farah, Nimroz, Helmand and Kandahar provinces
  2. Relieve the Northern Alliance in Bamiyan
  3. Arrest the bandit Mohammed (Mullah) Omar
 
Interesting, looking forward to seeing what comes next.

If you need help with the specifics, here's the closest source I could find for Iranian ground forces of the time being, and this somewhat earlier one.

The IRGC understandably leading the charge will make them somewhat lighter than their comparable regular army equivalents, if it makes much difference (not totally lacking heavier armor and artillery, but less of it than the main forces, unless they can get the political leadership to divert it to them). Air power will likely operate "deeper" than the front lines to avoid friendly fire issues due to the well-known IRGC/regular army conflict.
 
Part I
Upon receiving the order from the Ayatollah to advance into Afghanistan, Commander Yahya Rahim Safavi had his subordinates draw up a battle plan.

On September 14th, it was completed and presented to the Ayatollah.

Per the recommendation of the Revolutionary Guard’s chief strategists, to accomplish the primary objectives set out by the Supreme leader, the bulk of the troops on the border should be split into two separate but equal axis of advance, subdivided into three separate offensive phases.

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Phase I | September 16th – September 19th
• Approximately 50,000 ground troops supported by several APCs battalions, along with 1 fighter squadron, and 25 towed artillery pieces and 2 T-72 tank battalions (Army Group 1) would advance at the border crossing near of Tayyebat on to Herat with the goal of seizing the airport and establishing it as supply depot.

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Phase II | September 17th – September 23rd
• Approximately 20,000 ground troops support by several hundred APCs, along with 1 brigade of self propelled artiliary, one Zulfiquar tank battlion and 2 support helicopter squadrons (Army Group 2) will advance at the border crossing near of Zabol and quickly strike on to Taliban-held Zaranj, Chakansur, Khash, Delaram, and Gereshl, pausing to re-organize and resupply at the Helmand River, just outside Kandahar Province. An ultimatum will be issued to Taliban’s Foreign Office to produce Mullah Omar for immediate extradition to Iran.

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Phase III | September 20th – September 30th
• With Herat airport established as a supply depot, Army Group 1 will advance from the city along the main thoroughfare, pushing the Taliban out of the towns of Owbeh, Chesht-e-Sharif, Shahrak, Chaghcharan, Dowl at Yar, and finally Bamiyan; reliving the Northern Alliance defending the city.

On September 15th the Ayatollah gave his approval of the plan and on September 16th, the Revolutionary Guard crossed into Afghanistan.
 
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Good, this the TL we discussed in the other thread. The fight won't be pretty, and indeed genocidal madness is already geared up to eleven. May all the fanatics in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan blood themselves to death !

Did the 1998 Kenya bombings happened as per OTL ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_United_States_embassy_bombings

Did Clinton send a volley of Tomahawks on the fanatics ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Infinite_Reach
Yes to both of your questions. Im actually going to some in depth research on the anti-US political fallout in Pakistan from Operation Infinite Reach.
 
Who does the US support in this war? They are de-facto on the same side as Iran.

As you say, it would have to be Iran, primarily because of Taliban's support of Al Qaeda, but it's not as if Iran would be willing to accept any outside influence regarding the conduct of the war.
Plus tbh Iran has such a massive military advantage over the Taliban they wouldn't need it, unless another country jumps in. (Pakistan)
Let's see if the Afghans hand over Mullah Omar or not.
 
Hate one, loathe the other ... I'm hard pressed if they're more likely to try as hard as they can't not to notice it, or run in trying to act as world cop to everyone's dissatisfaction and annoyance.
 
Would Saddam dare attack Iran if he found the Iranians were really too far into it on the other coast? Or had he had too many forces destroyed by the First Gulf War?
 
Would Saddam dare attack Iran if he found the Iranians were really too far into it on the other coast? Or had he had too many forces destroyed by the First Gulf War?
I dunno, he might, but at the same time, the Iranian military in that timeframe didn't mess around. So he'd be throwing his mauled forces against troops that'll be dug in, and hoping that the US doesn't feel up for Round 2....
 
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