BLO - WWII - Allies in Pacific, 1942

TFSmith121 said:
Given what happened to Hugh Drum when he turned down Marshall's offer of the CBI command, I'd expect Mac would accept it.

Whatever else he was, the man did not want to sit on a shelf somewhere. He was a professional soldier, after all.
True. He also very much wanted to be PotUS...

I'm split on which would win out. IMO, either is credible.

The part of me that thinks he's an egomaniacal dick says he'd resign. The part of me that wants to see him suffer says he'd accept the CBI.:p

The part of me that wants to avoid a fiasco in Korea wants him to get run over by a Jeep.:p

Pick one.;)
 
True. He also very much wanted to be PotUS...

I'm split on which would win out. IMO, either is credible.

The part of me that thinks he's an egomaniacal dick says he'd resign. The part of me that wants to see him suffer says he'd accept the CBI.:p

The part of me that wants to avoid a fiasco in Korea wants him to get run over by a Jeep.:p

Pick one.;)


Combine all three. takes the CBI appointment, then resigns over disputes with CKS, and then gets run over by a jeep on his way to his plane going home. :D
 
zert said:
Combine all three. takes the CBI appointment, then resigns over disputes with CKS, and then gets run over by a jeep on his way to his plane going home. :D
I said, "Pick one".:p

However, you're clearly a man after my own heart.:p
 

trurle

Banned
Never seen this done before. As you say high risk for high gain. It might also turn into blood letting on both sides. Without nearby islands to cover them, any approaching Japanese ships and planes would likely be discovered before they are in range.

Could Marcus Island, or part of it, be turned into a sub base?

Marcus island (Minamitorishima) is not very spacious submarine base. Japanese have made only 1 submarine loading/unloading area. The bottom for each submarine pen must be blasted and dredged. Fortunately, no need to construct a wave-breaker, because of the barrier reef 200 meters from shores.
It mean, the Marcus island can shelter from storms and torpedoes may be 6-12 major warships (battleships, aircraft carriers or large tankers) plus may be ~24-40 destroyers, submarines and support ships. About 6% of Ulithi capacity. The required dredging volume: ~1mln cubic meters. Required piers steel volume: ~300 cubic meters. Probably, better to forget about dry docks. Plus steel and cement for fortifications in the range of tens of thousands tons. Large-scale project, but probably much less than US did on the Ulithi.
 
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Skipping all the slow-f..k of Central Pacific islands and going to capture Minamitorishima (Marcus Island) soon after Battle of Midway. High risk=High return:D

The island is just large enough to support B-29 landing, and Tokyo is within the range of both B-17 and P-38 based on the island. Of course, it is also within range of A6M "Zero" from central Japan. But island offer over 1km2 area (equal to ~100 aircraft carriers) for guns placement, and US already had a radar proximity fuses in 1942. The losses will be terrible on the both sides, but the Pacific war can be finished in spring of 1943 by the direct assault of ruins of Tokyo.

That is a definite game changer.

What were the Japanese defenses on the island?

Are the Americans organised for this in June 1942? Guadalcanal in August was called operation shoestring. Can the first marine division take Marcus island in September (will need another month to organize).

So in this scenario, the USA lets Japan take Guadalcanal and build up an airbase while the USA takes Marcus.

Maybe it could work. The USA could raid the Guadalcanal field, make it in-operational and set up B-24 bomber bases on Marcus.

USA would not have the attrition value that Guadalcanal came to be against the Japanese forces. But this is offset by being able to bomb Tokyo sooner.

Perhaps a POD would be a more successful Midway where Hiryu is hit without launching aircraft that attacked Yorktown. So Yorktown is saved. Yorktown would then simply be used as a ferry service to initially send F4F Wildcats or perhaps P-40's (I do not know if P-38's can take off from a carrier)to the island to defend once taken. In this role, Yorktown is still useful, does not need the massive repairs and upgrades.

Australia would howl some, but if it is able to reach Japan sooner ...... awesome

Edit: it would be a bold move. One that the Japanese would not expect. Is Tokyo really in range for B-24 bombers? I do not think that it is for P-38's. Marcus Island could be the stepping stone to Iwo Jima which is definitely in range for B-24's and land based air cover. More of Japan can be mined, shipping taken out.

Wikipedia says that Tokyo is 1148 miles from Marcus. Wikipedia also has the combat range of the B-24 as 2100 miles. It would be at the maximum range, lighter bomb loads more fuel could be used. But Tokyo is in reach. Tokyo harbor is definitely in reach to mine.

So the trade off would be Marcus Island for Guadalcanal.
 
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trurle

Banned
That is a definite game changer.

What were the Japanese defenses on the island?

Are the Americans organised for this in June 1942? Guadalcanal in August was called operation shoestring. Can the first marine division take Marcus island in September (will need another month to organize).

So in this scenario, the USA lets Japan take Guadalcanal and build up an airbase while the USA takes Marcus.

Maybe it could work. The USA could raid the Guadalcanal field, make it in-operational and set up B-24 bomber bases on Marcus.

USA would not have the attrition value that Guadalcanal came to be against the Japanese forces. But this is offset by being able to bomb Tokyo sooner.

Perhaps a POD would be a more successful Midway where Hiryu is hit without launching aircraft that attacked Yorktown. So Yorktown is saved. Yorktown would then simply be used as a ferry service to initially send F4F Wildcats or perhaps P-40's (I do not know if P-38's can take off from a carrier)to the island to defend once taken. In this role, Yorktown is still useful, does not need the massive repairs and upgrades.

Australia would howl some, but if it is able to reach Japan sooner ...... awesome

The Japanese garrison in the 1941 was the independent regiment (elite placed in mid-1941) and garrison battalion (permanent). It mean ~14 light guns (likely mix of 70mm Type 92 and 75mm Type 38) and ~10 light anti-aircraft (Likely 20mm Type 98). Plus about 90 light mortars. Finally, about 40 heavy machine guns and 2300 rifles. Plus air regiment (48 fighters in worst case). Plus the usual assortment of obsolete high-calibre guns for coastal defence, likely 2-6 of WWI-vintage 10cm-15cm. Most likely, coastal defence guns inoperative by September 1942.
Coastal fortifications - trench system along coast, few pillboxes, many shallow bomb shelters (cannot dig deep because of seeping seawater)

Capture Minamitorishima in September 1942 - quite possible. US have bombed Minamitorishima even in March, 1942. But please take into account the weather. June-October is the typhoon season. So i will opt for late October 1942, for the safe seaport construction.

As about P-38, these have a take-off roll about 120m in ideal conditions. So theoretically P-38 can be launched from carrier, the carrier version was developed but never adopted. By mentioning P-38 on Minamitorishima i mean what these are versatile (fighter, patrol aircraft and light bomber) - and the versatility is what is required for the small airbase.
P.S. P-38 can go to Tokyo from Minamitorishima, make a dogfight and return if a 4 drop tanks fitted. 2 large (330 gallons) and 2 small (110 gallons). Also, need a fighter cover (may be other P-38 without drop tanks) until tanks are used up. B-24 can go Minamitorishima-Tokyo, as you say, with the reduced payload. May be 1500kg bombs (distance is 1120 miles). B-17 will have lower useful payload of about ~1000kg at this range.
 
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So concentrate on Marcus Island for both the First Marine division instead of Guadalcanal and the Makin Island raid.

Use it to mine Tokyo harbor and isolate Iwo Jima as the next stone for early 1943 .....

Have the Japanese units in the SW Pacific wither on the vine.

Game over Japan.

Have Army units that were tagged for the Pacific re-routed to Europe, maybe to Italy for a larger Italian operation in 1943/1944 without sacrificing anything for Overlord and Dragoon in 1944.

Game over Germany
 
Ok no sub base but maybe a resupply and refuel point. Keeping the airbase supplied with fuel, bombs, and ammo will be crucial.

Japan will go full out to attack the base with both land based and carrier planes. Seeing as this is a valuable target, they even try to invade. This may be a very bloody fight when the Japanese marines attempt to get past the coral reefs.
 

trurle

Banned
Ok no sub base but maybe a resupply and refuel point. Keeping the airbase supplied with fuel, bombs, and ammo will be crucial.

Japan will go full out to attack the base with both land based and carrier planes. Seeing as this is a valuable target, they even try to invade. This may be a very bloody fight when the Japanese marines attempt to get past the coral reefs.

Opposite is also true. 3-4 minutes realistically to go through surf..the 1st wave of US marines is going to decimated as well, even with suppressive fire and armoured landing crafts. Imagine a shower of 50mm grenades from behind the coral rim. I expect ~3000 casualties during landing if trying to attack non-suppressed defences with landing craft only. For Japanese, with their lack of close fire support, may be up to 6000 losses.
If i would plan US attack, i would like to request at least one Landing Craft Tank (Rocket) before landing. Better three.:eek: And a couple of heavy cruisers for direct-fire from the deck, to shell inward slope of the Japanese positions at the landing beach. And, of course, at least 3 carrier groups for air superiority. And at least half-dozen minesweepers. Dozen destroyers for air defence and close fire support. Air defence regiment packed with ammunition. Engineer battalion to repair airstrip. Tankers, tankers and TANKERS to carry fuel to get so far! Cargo chips loaded with pontoons. And cargo ships with cement. And cargo ship with pre-fabricated pillboxes. Excavators to dig ammunition dumps. Bulldozers to extend air-stripes. Detachment of divers to blast new entrance through the reefs. Everything to do really fast. In 4-5 hours after attack start, Japanese will have a huge air raid (may be even with paratroopers), so by that time ships must be far from coast together with carriers and manoeuvring to avoid torpedo hits.
Unloading heavy equipment is another headache. And if one of the cargo ships become struck while unloading in single passage from the reefs..
Or even better, Japanese had the naval minefield around which minesweepers overlooked.. or if the single Japanese submarine happened to just arrive with supply mission and stumble upon precious ... anything non-precious here? So we must double every item listed above to have a margin against contingency.

The equivalent is Battle of Tarawa. Japanese have about same manpower and 1/3 of heavy equipment compared to Tarawa, but US must capture island in 4 hours instead of 4 days. And holding it will be much more difficult.
So you may understand why it was not tried IOTL. The risk is huge. The gain is also huge. But if US is winning the war anyway, why take the risk?:p
 
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With no high ground, no no apparent fresh water source, it would be interesting to see what sort of fortifications or defences along with water supply could rapidly be deployed in the invading Americans.

1024px-Marcus_Island_DF-ST-87-08298.JPEG
 

TFSmith121

Banned
I'd expect the odds are high he'd accept it...

True. He also very much wanted to be PotUS...

I'm split on which would win out. IMO, either is credible.

The part of me that thinks he's an egomaniacal dick says he'd resign. The part of me that wants to see him suffer says he'd accept the CBI.:p

The part of me that wants to avoid a fiasco in Korea wants him to get run over by a Jeep.:p

Pick one.;)


I expect the odds are high he'd accept it; he was nothing if not confident, and presumably might think he had the capabilities to "fix" China.

Which would certainly make postwar American politics over the issue interesting.

Best,
 

trurle

Banned
With no high ground, no no apparent fresh water source, it would be interesting to see what sort of fortifications or defences along with water supply could rapidly be deployed in the invading Americans.
Pre-fabricated pillboxes like the ones used in England in 1940. Ammunition pits. Large-diameter steel pipes to use as air raid shelters (bulldoze some coral debris on top of it before use) Buried tanks. Later - turrets from obsolete battleships and cruisers. Concrete-lined ammunition pits. Repairs of Japanese tunnels.

As about fresh water, IOTL on Ulithi US used a specialized distillation ship. If not available in 1942, any coal-firing ship have a built-in distillator.
 
TFSmith121 said:
I expect the odds are high he'd accept it; he was nothing if not confident
That's for sure.:rolleyes::p
TFSmith121 said:
presumably might think he had the capabilities to "fix" China.
He might at that.;)
TFSmith121 said:
Which would certainly make postwar American politics over the issue interesting.
That is an understatement if I ever heard one.;)
zert said:
Ok no sub base
Why not?:confused: Midway didn't have major improvements (compared to Hawaii), but it served as a forward staging point. The island would need fuel storage, lodgings (simple Quonset huts would do), & regular supplies of food, water, fuel, and munitions. A sub tender anchored in the harbor would be needed, too.

If subs can stage through Marcus, it can improve the turnaround time, which helps keeps boats on station longer, which increases sinkings.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
In an odd sense, it actually makes sense:

That's for sure.:rolleyes::p

He might at that.;)

That is an understatement if I ever heard one.;)

In an odd sense, it actually makes sense; however flawed the execution, the planning effort that led to the Philippine Commonwealth Army being created in the 1930s did, in fact, end up with a fairly capable "national" force being organized with American advisors, and from a fairly mixed bag of cadre, that was capable of standing up to the IJA on Bataan...they still lost, but considering how long the Bataan defense force lasted against the best the IJA could offer, it's pretty respectable.

The parallels with what Stilwell et al historically had to accomplish with X Force are reasonable; at least enough to advance the argument to Mac.

Hell, he might even see it as an endorsement of what he did in the PI; maybe Chiang will offer to make him a field marshal in the ROC Army.

Does make the postwar recriminations over China more interesting, as well.;)

Best,
 

trurle

Banned
If subs can stage through Marcus, it can improve the turnaround time, which helps keeps boats on station longer, which increases sinkings.

Of course. I do not imply what the sub base on Marcus (Minamitorishima) is impossible. It will be just necessarily limited, as many other important ships will compete for limited anchorage. Tenders help, but pier is much better. No more than a dozen submarines at a time. It mean most likely no more than 30 submarines on patrol at any given time. May be 1/4 of total ~180 submarines available to US in autumn 1942. Actually no point to concentrate more on Minamitorishima. Other sea routes (Singapore, Sumatra and Borneo areas in particular) also needed subs attention.
 
Well if the US can capture and hold Marcus Island, then fortify it fully, it will prove useful as an advance base when the US goes after the Marianas as well as the Bonin Islands.

Could the B-29 be staged out the airbase or is it just too big to be deployed in numbers?
 

trurle

Banned
Possible. The length of runway on Marcus (Minamitorishima) is enough to support B-29. The area of island is also enough to support up to 200 B-29 (with fighters, berms, AA guns, airstripes and support areas). Also, each carry 6-times payload to Tokyo compared to B-24, while requires only 2.5 times logistics of B-24.
The B-29 can fly directly from Honolulu to Minamitorishima (~5100km). Actually, even B-24 can be flown by Honolulu-Minamitorishima route, although it is risky because margin for winds is small. P-38 must stop at Midway Atoll before Minamitorishima.
Logistics will be terrible (each actively used B-29 need 400 tons supplies per day, if all overheads accounted for), but the US had the means to support even very heavy logistical needs.
 
Possible. The length of runway on Marcus (Minamitorishima) is enough to support B-29. The area of island is also enough to support up to 200 B-29 (with fighters, berms, AA guns, airstripes and support areas). Also, each carry 6-times payload to Tokyo compared to B-24, while requires only 2.5 times logistics of B-24.
The B-29 can fly directly from Honolulu to Minamitorishima (~5100km). Actually, even B-24 can be flown by Honolulu-Minamitorishima route, although it is risky because margin for winds is small. P-38 must stop at Midway Atoll before Minamitorishima.
Logistics will be terrible (each actively used B-29 need 400 tons supplies per day, if all overheads accounted for), but the US had the means to support even very heavy logistical needs.


Thank you. These numbers are very useful. :)

Well perhaps Marcus island will be just one of the staging areas for B-29s after the Marianas are taken.
 
trurle said:
Other sea routes (Singapore, Sumatra and Borneo areas in particular) also needed subs attention.
I would argue (following Blair, here) the best option is putting boats in the Luzon/Formosa Straits, Yellow Sea, & Home Waters, not on close surveillance of harbors. Using Marcus for that strikes me as more effective than Midway by a large margin. Operating into the Japanese-controlled South China Sea makes more sense for Oz-based boats, & IMO Oz-based boats were a mistake to begin with.:rolleyes:
 
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