Blair assassinated in 1999.

Ricardolindo · Apr 9, 2019

I just found this old thread https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-tony-blair-assassinated-in-2001.40521/ that says that there was a plot by remnants of the Yugoslav army, ordered by Milosevic, himself, to assassinate UK PM Tony Blair in 2001, during his visit to Macedonia. I searched more and found out that it actually was in 1999, read https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/i-was-told-to-blow-up-blair-yugoslav-general-claims-17039.html. What if the plot went forward and Blair was killed? What would the reactions be? Would the UK have invaded Yugoslavia?

SadSprinter · Apr 9, 2019

Well it seems somewhat similar to my timeline where the Kosovo war causes World War 3. First of all Gordon Brown would become PM, the late 90s, early 2000s euphoria period would die suddenly. Wouldn’t be surprised if it causes similar terrorist attacks or attempts at attacks elsewhere. 9/11 on top would surely make the 2000s an incredibly depressing decade. Gordon Brown as PM equals no Iraq which causes massive butterflies

John Farson · Apr 9, 2019

Tony Blair becomes the JFK of the UK.

And with Diana's death still a recent memory, to boot.

Ricardolindo · Apr 9, 2019

John Farson said:
Tony Blair becomes the JFK of the UK.

And with Diana's death still a recent memory, to boot.

Different circumstances, in this case, Blair is assassinated at orders from a foreign leader.

SadSprinter · Apr 9, 2019

Ricardolindo said:
Different circumstances, in this case, Blair is assassinated at orders from a foreign leader.

Then NATO Article 5 is triggered and things begin to get hot.

Ricardolindo · Apr 14, 2019

Bumping for interest. This appears to be a very obscure POD. Personally, I think that there would probably have been a NATO ground invasion of Yugoslavia.

Eivind · Apr 14, 2019

It would save Blair´s reputation, as he would not be involved in the post-9/11-wars.

kernals12 · Apr 14, 2019

Ricardolindo said:
I just found this old thread https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-tony-blair-assassinated-in-2001.40521/ that says that there was a plot by remnants of the Yugoslav army, ordered by Milosevic, himself, to assassinate UK PM Tony Blair in 2001, during his visit to Macedonia. I searched more and found out that it actually was in 1999, read https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/i-was-told-to-blow-up-blair-yugoslav-general-claims-17039.html. What if the plot went forward and Blair was killed? What would the reactions be? Would the UK have invaded Yugoslavia?

Definitely, as would all of NATO.
I'm sure this would boost Labour in the 2001 elections, just like Kennedy's assassination boosted Democrats in 1964. I don't think Prime Minister John Prescott would go to war with Iraq. I wonder if Bush would decide not to go forward, or at least congress would be unwilling to support it.

kernals12 · Apr 14, 2019

Ricardolindo said:
Bumping for interest. This appears to be a very obscure POD. Personally, I think that there would probably have been a NATO ground invasion of Yugoslavia.

I don't see how an invasion of Yugoslavia would make big changes from OTL. They'd certainly remove Milosevic from power and put him straight in the Hague, which the Serbian people did on their own in 2001 IOTL. They'd also probably give independence to Montenegro and Kosovo, which happened in 2006 and 2008 IOTL.

The only change would probably be Serbia's willingness to recognize Kosovo's independence, which would pave the way for EU and NATO membership for both countries.

Ingsoc · Apr 14, 2019

kernals12 said:
Definitely, as would all of NATO.
I'm sure this would boost Labour in the 2001 elections, just like Kennedy's assassination boosted Democrats in 1964. I don't think Prime Minister John Prescott would go to war with Iraq. I wonder if Bush would decide not to go forward, or at least congress would be unwilling to support it.

Jesus Christ imagine! It would obviously have been Brown.

kernals12 · Apr 14, 2019

SadSprinter said:
Well it seems somewhat similar to my timeline where the Kosovo war causes World War 3. First of all Gordon Brown would become PM, the late 90s, early 2000s euphoria period would die suddenly. Wouldn’t be surprised if it causes similar terrorist attacks or attempts at attacks elsewhere. 9/11 on top would surely make the 2000s an incredibly depressing decade. Gordon Brown as PM equals no Iraq which causes massive butterflies

Wouldn't it be John Prescott?

SenatorChickpea · Apr 14, 2019

No, the Deputy Prime Minister has no constitutional role at all. Prescott would become acting leader while a leadership ballot was held, in which he would almost certainly not have the support to mount a serious challenge. The next leader would almost certainly be Gordon Brown.

Ricardolindo · Apr 14, 2019

Ricardolindo said:
Bumping for interest. This appears to be a very obscure POD. Personally, I think that there would probably have been a NATO ground invasion of Yugoslavia.

I should say that, actually, this entire plot to kill Blair is very obscure, I, myself, didn't know about it before reading that thread. Elsewhere, it's only mentioned in some old news articles and in some books. Why is it so obscure?

Dingus Khan · Apr 14, 2019

If Milosevic really did order a successful hit on the freaking PM of the UK, then I think a NATO ground invasion of Yugoslavia isn't the only thing that's going to happen; expect a full regime change to be forced upon Belgrade, followed by Milosevic being targeted for an assassination/execution himself. I don't think that the Western powers would be merciful to anyone who thought it was a good idea to target the government leaders of a nuclear-armed country.

Politibrit · Apr 14, 2019

SenatorChickpea said:
No, the Deputy Prime Minister has no constitutional role at all. Prescott would become acting leader while a leadership ballot was held, in which he would almost certainly not have the support to mount a serious challenge. The next leader would almost certainly be Gordon Brown.

Actually, I believe that Labour party rules says that the Deputy Leader only becomes interim leader in the event of a vacancy occurring whilst in opposition. If Labour is in government, I think they are appointed by an emergency meeting of the NEC, which I'd imagine would choose Brown.

Jonathan · Apr 14, 2019

John Prescott as Deputy Prime Minister would hold the office of Caretaker Prime Minister, while an election is done for new Labour Leader

John Prescott could throw his hat in the ring, although many may see Gordon Brown as his rightful successor. Other candidates are:
- Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook
- George Robertson, who is Secretary of State for Defence and became 10th Secretary General of NATO

The Wooksta! · Apr 14, 2019

Very much doubt Robertson would have thrown his hat into the ring, as there was a reason he was quickly kicked upstairs into the NATO job.

There was an article some years back in the Daily Mail after the "Fathers for Justice" protest that saw purple paint being thrown into the chamber of the House of Commons. It had the premise that if instead of paint, it had been Anthrax or some other poison which wiped out the leadership and David Blunkett had been the highest minister remaining alive and thus taking control of the government. It was quite dark.

Captain Seafort · Apr 14, 2019

Jonathan said:
John Prescott as Deputy Prime Minister would hold the office of Caretaker Prime Minister, while an election is done for new Labour Leader

No he wouldn't, because there's no such office. He'd be PM. No caveats. Probably for a limited period, but as acting leader of the largest party in the commons, he'd be the individual invited by Her Majesty to form a government. This means that the country would be lead into a war with Serbia by the guy whose instinctive response to an egg in the back was to knock the offender's teeth down his throat.

Dingus Khan said:
If Milosevic really did order a successful hit on the freaking PM of the UK, then I think a NATO ground invasion of Yugoslavia isn't the only thing that's going to happen; expect a full regime change to be forced upon Belgrade, followed by Milosevic being targeted for an assassination/execution himself. I don't think that the Western powers would be merciful to anyone who thought it was a good idea to target the government leaders of a nuclear-armed country.

No. Milosovic being chucked into Belmarsh and the key thrown away, sure, but the only likely scenarios that see him dead are suicide or being in a C2 facility when a Paveway comes through the roof.

Jonathan · Apr 15, 2019

Captain Seafort said:
No he wouldn't, because there's no such office. He'd be PM. No caveats. Probably for a limited period, but as acting leader of the largest party in the commons, he'd be the individual invited by Her Majesty to form a government. This means that the country would be lead into a war with Serbia by the guy whose instinctive response to an egg in the back was to knock the offender's teeth down his throat.

Caretaker Prime minister is an office such as Churchill caretaker ministry, Queen Elizabeth would call John Prescott to Buckingham Palace, inviting him to form a government pending a leadership election in the Labour Party.

No general election would be needed and Brown would most likely succeed Prescott.

The Serbian War will most likely be a quick turn around with president Slobodan Milošević, quickly captured facing war crimes.

As for Browns cabinet being ten years earlier, I can imagine these changes:
John Prescott as Defence Minister.
Alistair Darling as Chancellor (having previously served as Secretary for Work and Pensions, since 27 July 1998, as well as Chief Secretary to the Treasury under Chancellor Brown)

Forcon · Apr 15, 2019

Six did discuss killing Misolsevic in the 1990s. Ironically, one suggestion was made to cause a car crash in a tunnel...

A more realistic option was to send some gentlemen who live in Wales into Serbia and kill him in a vehicle ambush or with a sniper. Whether or not the Hereford Hooligans could have pulled this off is debatable.

Of course, the whole suggestion of a targeted extra-judicial killing was shut down rapidly. If Blair is murdered then those plans might be dusted off.

Most likely, though, is that he is captured and given whole life tarriff in Belmarsh.