Could James G. Blaine, if nominated, have defeated Grover Cleveland in 1888? I believe he could have. Blaine's old enemy, Roscoe Conkling, who had apparently "knifed" him in 1884 (Conkling's stronghold, Oneida County in upstate New York, went for Cleveland by nineteen votes in 1884 after having gone for Garfield by more than two thousand in 1880) was dead. "Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion" were four years in the past. Cleveland's vetoes of pension bills hurt him with Civil War veterans, and his call for a lower tariff hurt him with industrial workers and--very important in New York state--sheep farmers. As James Ford Rhodes observed, "[H]is recommendation of free wool made of every farmer who owned a sheep a protectionist...it is not unlikely that the advocacy of free wool was the predominant factor [in Cleveland's defeat]. New York farmers owned one and a half million of sheep and produced annually six million seven hundred thousand pounds of wool. Indiana had over a million sheep producing five million pounds. The Oregon State election in June, an indication of November, gave a largely increased Republican majority; and this was a clear protest against the Democratic policy of free wool, the clip in that State being ten million pounds." http://books.google.com/books?id=51wAAAAAYAAJ&pg=RA1-PA502
Blaine had lost New York state by only a thousand votes in 1884. Most likely he would carry it in 1888 (Harrison carried it by 13,000), and if he won it, he would win the presidency even if he lost Harrison's state of Indiana. http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1888.txt The Mugwumps would likely oppose him again, but by themselves they would not be enough to defeat him.
The basic problem was that the "Plumed Knight" did not want the job in 1888:
"Since his close defeat by Cleveland, Blaine had combined a satisfying private life with just enough politicking to remain the peerless leader of his party... The publication in 1886 of the second volume of his monumental *Twenty Years in Congress* together with his effective speaking campaign in the state and congressional election that same year only enhanced his stature. But Blaine had decided that he had would not again run for the Presieency. The 1884 canvass had cost him a great deal of money and even more heartache. Both he and his wife had been pilloried with insults and abuse; he wanted no more of this. Moreover, Blaine worried about the state of his health. Minor ailments, he imagined, portended grave illness. In mid-1887 he removed his family to Europe for an 'indefinite stay' in the hope that the grand tour would provide him with rest and relaxation. It would also keep him far away from his political freinds who repeatedly urged him to remain available for the 1888 Republican nomination.
"Blaine traveled in Europe from June, 1887 to early August, 1888, well past the Republican national convention in Chicago. Even before he sailed, he importuned his followers not to work for his nomination, and once abroad he remained consistent in his attitude. When in January 1888 his Paris letter [of December 1887, denouncing Cleveland's call for lower tariffs] was interpreted in most quarters as an announcment of his candidacy, the Plumed Knight dispatched a crisp note from Florence, Italy to Republican National Chairman B. F. Jones. 'I wish to state to members of the Republican Party,' Blaine wrote, 'that my name will not be presented to the National Convention.' Persistent rumors of his availability impelled Blaine, in May, to rpeat his disclaimer in even stronger terms to editor Whitelaw Reid of the New York *Tribune.* "
Robert F. Wesser, "Election of 1880" in Volume II, *History of American Presidential Elections 1789-1868 (Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., Fred L. Israel, and William P. Hansen, eds.), pp. 1628-9.
Suppose Blaine was more anxious for revenge against Cleveland, and did run and won both the nomination and the election? Of course in many ways Blaine's administration would resemble Harrison's (in which Blaine served as Secretary of State). Yet Harrison was somewhat cold, and irritated party bosses like Matthew S. Quay of Pennsylvania, Thomas C. Platt of New York, and Thomas B. Reed of Maine on patronage and other matters. It is possible that Blaine could do a better job of holding the Republican Party together than Harrison. Given the state of his health, though--and while being president might not worsen it, it probably won't help it, either--I don't see him running for re-election in 1892, and whoever the Republicans do nominate--maybe McKinley, though of course Harrison is another possibility--would be an underdog against Cleveland.
Of course it is possible that the presidency *would* kill Blaine well before his OTL death on January 27, 1893. In which case it matters who the Republicans choose for vice-president in 1888. I doubt it would be Levi Morton as in OTL because that would mean a ticket of two Northeasterners. Again, it could be Harrison.
Blaine had lost New York state by only a thousand votes in 1884. Most likely he would carry it in 1888 (Harrison carried it by 13,000), and if he won it, he would win the presidency even if he lost Harrison's state of Indiana. http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1888.txt The Mugwumps would likely oppose him again, but by themselves they would not be enough to defeat him.
The basic problem was that the "Plumed Knight" did not want the job in 1888:
"Since his close defeat by Cleveland, Blaine had combined a satisfying private life with just enough politicking to remain the peerless leader of his party... The publication in 1886 of the second volume of his monumental *Twenty Years in Congress* together with his effective speaking campaign in the state and congressional election that same year only enhanced his stature. But Blaine had decided that he had would not again run for the Presieency. The 1884 canvass had cost him a great deal of money and even more heartache. Both he and his wife had been pilloried with insults and abuse; he wanted no more of this. Moreover, Blaine worried about the state of his health. Minor ailments, he imagined, portended grave illness. In mid-1887 he removed his family to Europe for an 'indefinite stay' in the hope that the grand tour would provide him with rest and relaxation. It would also keep him far away from his political freinds who repeatedly urged him to remain available for the 1888 Republican nomination.
"Blaine traveled in Europe from June, 1887 to early August, 1888, well past the Republican national convention in Chicago. Even before he sailed, he importuned his followers not to work for his nomination, and once abroad he remained consistent in his attitude. When in January 1888 his Paris letter [of December 1887, denouncing Cleveland's call for lower tariffs] was interpreted in most quarters as an announcment of his candidacy, the Plumed Knight dispatched a crisp note from Florence, Italy to Republican National Chairman B. F. Jones. 'I wish to state to members of the Republican Party,' Blaine wrote, 'that my name will not be presented to the National Convention.' Persistent rumors of his availability impelled Blaine, in May, to rpeat his disclaimer in even stronger terms to editor Whitelaw Reid of the New York *Tribune.* "
Robert F. Wesser, "Election of 1880" in Volume II, *History of American Presidential Elections 1789-1868 (Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., Fred L. Israel, and William P. Hansen, eds.), pp. 1628-9.
Suppose Blaine was more anxious for revenge against Cleveland, and did run and won both the nomination and the election? Of course in many ways Blaine's administration would resemble Harrison's (in which Blaine served as Secretary of State). Yet Harrison was somewhat cold, and irritated party bosses like Matthew S. Quay of Pennsylvania, Thomas C. Platt of New York, and Thomas B. Reed of Maine on patronage and other matters. It is possible that Blaine could do a better job of holding the Republican Party together than Harrison. Given the state of his health, though--and while being president might not worsen it, it probably won't help it, either--I don't see him running for re-election in 1892, and whoever the Republicans do nominate--maybe McKinley, though of course Harrison is another possibility--would be an underdog against Cleveland.
Of course it is possible that the presidency *would* kill Blaine well before his OTL death on January 27, 1893. In which case it matters who the Republicans choose for vice-president in 1888. I doubt it would be Levi Morton as in OTL because that would mean a ticket of two Northeasterners. Again, it could be Harrison.
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