Black Hand assassinated Franz Josef 1911

[Grey Wolf]

http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/FWWinSerbia.htm

"In May 1911, ten men in Serbia formed the Black Hand Secret Society. Early members included Colonel Dragutin Dimitrijevic , the chief of the Intelligence Department of the Serbian General Staff, Major Voja Tankosic and Milan Ciganovic. The main objective of the Black Hand was the creation, by means of violence, of a Greater Serbia. Its stated aim was: "To realize the national ideal, the unification of all Serbs. This organisation prefers terrorist action to cultural activities; it will therefore remain secret."

Dragutin Dimitrijevic ,who used the codename, Apis, established himself as the leader of the Black Hand. In 1911 he sent a member to assassinate Emperor Franz Josef. When this failed, Dimitrijevic turned his attention to General Oskar Potiorek ,Governor of the Austrian provinces of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Dimitrijevic recruited Muhamed Mehmedbasic to kill Potiorek with a poisoned dagger. However, Mehmedbasic returned to Belgrade after failing to carry out the task. "

Grey Wolf

 

[David S Poepoe]

A Balkan War, at least between AH and Serbia, at the worst the Great War just three years early. The AH is in no position to allow itself to look weak. The Germans will stand by their ally. Thing may run a little different in the diplomatic stages between the assassination and the outbreak of war. The fact that there would be a Russian ambassador in Beograde is important. In 1914 the Russian ambassador had just passed away and not be replaced yet.

 

[Fiji]

tension between UK and Germany hadn't QUITE gotten that bad yet.
(wasn't until 1912 that the UK started making plans with Belgium for fast deployment of troops)
Italy was still mostly allied to A-H and Germany.

Things were beginning to change, but the timing is off.

At worst I see a limited war between A-H and Serbia (if even that, the Serbs might simply root out the black hand and hand them over or deal with them themselves) with Russia closely monitoring so things don't get out of hand.
BTW, what were Russia's mobilisation times in 1911? The war might be over before they could mobilise in any event.

 

[Redbeard]

France in deep trouble

In 1911 the French Army was in the middle of some very comprehensive an needed reforms. The background was not at least the Drefuss afair from a decade earlier, which had quite thoroughly demoralised the army and decimated the public trust in it. By 1914 the French Army was as strong as ever, but by 1911 I think it will only have fraction of the combat value of the OTL 1914 Army, whereas the German or AH armies will not be significantly weaker (the AH might even be stronger).

The Russian mobilisation time was very dependent on the density of the railroad net, and a lot of railroad track was laid in Russia between 1911 and 1914. And as has already been said, the Anglo-German animosity hasn't climaxed yet (although the 1908 naval scare contributed a lot).

But all in all I think things look gloomy for the Entente. Either AH (for that reason) is allowed a free hand on Balkans, and if France and Russia gets involved France risk being run over before the Russian mobilisation is finished - in other words: The ideal Von Schlieffen scenario!

Regards

Steffen Redbeard