Black Gemini: Two Stories of the Secret Second Life of America's Second Capsule

If we look at those 'partial failures'
Gemini 1 - worked inside it mission parameter
Gemini 2 - worked inside it mission parameter
Gemini 3
- The craft gradually yawing left do a venting water boiler (overlook design error)
- Grissom cracked his faceplate on the control panel in front of him during parachute deployment
Gemini 4 - The computer failed on the 48th orbit. crew landed manually
Gemini 5
- pressure lost in fuel cells,
- One of the OAMS thruster blocks malfunctioned repeatedly.
- Due to a computing error, the crew landed 80 miles short of the planned landing point
Gemini 6 - no Issue (except problem with booster and lost of Agena Target)
Gemini 7
- after 11 day in orbit some of the thrusters stopped working,
- The fuel cells started to give only a partial amount of power.
Gemini 8 - thruster malfunction follow by emergency landing
Gemini 9 - Issue with Air-conditioning of Gene Cernan space suit during EVA
Gemini 10 - a minor leak of lithium hydroxide in the astronauts' oxygen supply
Gemini 11 - no issue
Gemini 12 - no issue

Gemini 13 to 15 were planned but scraped very early in program
 
Part 3: Second Story, Black Gemini and the 1990s
No additional disclosures follow...

Post 3: Black Gemini and the 1990s

By 1981, the Black Gemini system was well-proven compared to the new and untested Space Shuttle. The Air Force had made certain early commitments to the system, such as funding construction of long-lead items for OV-103 Kitty Hawk in 1976. However, while OV-103 began final assembly in 1979, other aspects of the Shuttle’s rollout in USAF were delayed due to funding. Some have wondered if a stronger bet on the new system might have advanced the construction of Vandenberg’s Cypress Ridge launch complex SLC-7 [1], the new filament-wound composite boosters required for full Shuttle performance from that site, and the training of new astronauts and ground crew, all of which contributed to delaying the readiness of Vandenberg’s launch site to take over Gemini missions until well into 1986. Given these delays in establishment of Shuttle’s polar launch capability, in 1983 USAF requested, and was granted, funding extensions to maintain the flight capabilities of the 304th Space Wing’s Gemini squadron through 1988--long enough to cover full operational capability of the military’s polar Space Shuttle program, then expected for 1986. This extension proved fortuitous however following the loss of Space Shuttle Resolution in 1986.

Operating from the Cape, Resolution had continued the existing USAF practice of lending their orbiters to NASA for Florida launch operations in advance of Vandeberg’s capability while OV-103 Kitty Hawk had returned to Palmdale for an extensive overhaul similar to that which her near-twin OV-102 Columbia had just completed. To boost orbiter availability and enable higher flight rates, these missions saw flight crews from the 304th Space Wing operating the orbiter to launch defense, scientific, and even commercial payloads. While the pilots and commanders were all-USAF for Resolution’s missions, they were joined by a mix of DoD, NASA, and international payload and mission specialists to complete the crews. With USAF crews aboard every flight of Resolution, her loss in 1986 saw the 304th Space Wing suffer their first losses in flight. Moreover, with Kitty Hawk still being rebuilt, in one stroke the size of the military Shuttle fleet was cut in half and the DoD’s operational Shuttle capacity was totally eliminated even as Vandeberg’s SLC-7 was approaching final commissioning. Indeed, on her final missions Resolution had been planned to touch down at the new Shuttle Landing Facility at Vandenberg as part of a change-of-base in advance of the site’s activation. Kitty Hawk was planned to return from Palmdale in August, 1986, but both NASA and USAF found themselves in deep re-evaluation of their practices surrounding the Space Shuttle and their dependence on a single fleet of vehicles.

Within USAF, the spotlight turned suddenly to the 304th Space Wing’s ongoing Gemini operations. Return to flight for the Shuttle was anticipated to take at least a year, possibly more, as USAF and NASA jointly dealt with investigations surrounding Resolution’s loss. Losses were a fact of life for high-performing squadrons flying sometimes temperamental equipment, in combat, in training, and in test aircraft. Nonetheless, for the 15 years since their formation, the Blackskies had remained untouched by attrition other than NASA recruiting. Now, in a single accident, the squadron lost two of their pilots--squadron commander and Gemini veteran Colonel Robert Lawrence and pilot Major Jackson Spencer, alongside three NASA mission specialists. The Blackskies were a small squadron, and losing two friends and colleagues in a single day--almost one tenth of the squadron’s flight roster--was traumatic. However, while members of the squadron were selected to be involved in the Resolution Accident Investigation Board, alongside other USAF and NASA representatives, and external experts, the squadron could only mourn their dead so long--the work had to go on in the meantime, and it would have to go on with Gemini.

In anticipation of other, less dramatic delays to Vandenberg Shuttle operations, sufficient RO-72 Black Gemini hardware had been acquired for launches through 1988. The deliveries of these were requested to be accelerated to keep up a higher flight rate absent Shuttle support. However, the previous plans had largely been based around a “fly-out” of the existing stock of reused Black Gemini command modules (many now veterans of six or more missions) and the well-proven KH-9 Servicing Module. Now, new contracts were added for additional new-build RO-72A capsules, with improved and modernized avionics and a new modified Servicing Module to allow replacement of CCD imagers aboard the next-generation KH-11 KENNAN telescopes, a task previously reserved for Space Shuttle flights. With these modifications and additional orders, Black Gemini could be extended not just through 1988, but indefinitely until USAF could find other solutions for a backup capability to the Space Shuttle. This new hardware was still years in the future when the Blackskies returned to flight with Black Gemini just a month after the loss of Space Shuttle Resolution, flying the same old Black Gemini capsules on roughly the same old missions…but now with increased emphasis placed on their success. For nearly 18 months, the Blackskies would once again be the only operational American crew launch capability.

A few months after the Space Shuttle’s return to flight in 1988, Space Shuttle Kitty Hawk finally made the program’s first launch from Vandenberg’s SLC-7 at Cypress Ridge. Not long afterward, however, the first of the new-generation RO-72A capsules would fly for the first attempt to conduct a major servicing and overhaul of a KH-11 KENNAN using only Gemini. Compared to Shuttle, the capabilities were restrictive--robotics support was limited to what could be carried aboard the Servicing Module, and had to be operated by the second pilot in vacuum on EVA while the first would work with the arm’s end effector to grapple the spysat and begin work on it. With both crew on EVA at once, often both working within the satellite at the same time, capabilities were closer to the edge of possibility than in the planned Shuttle servicing flights. Even with only replacing a single imaging instrument on the to-do list, along with a top-off of the satellite’s maneuvering propellants, the crew workload was intense. At the conclusion of the mission, comparing the Gemini flight to a 1989 KH-11 servicing mission carried out by Kitty Hawk, USAF concluded that Black Gemini was, indeed, a suboptimal platform for carrying out the more extensive EVA operations needed for the Flight III HEXAGON and the new KENNAN platforms. As the 304th Space Wing’s Shuttle operations settled into a routine and the trauma of the loss of Resolution faded, USAF was increasingly willing to allow Black Gemini to slip to a reserve “backup” capability, flying only propellant top-off and minor overhaul flights twice a year or so in addition to the three to four annual Space Shuttle missions.

This difference in capabilities and the recent demonstration of the value of redundant platforms put USAF in a dilemma. Though Black Gemini had come through in their hour of need, the spacecraft was (even in its new glass-cockpit RO-72A form) over-aged and under-capacity. The service needed a backup to Shuttle, but it needed one which was closer in capabilities and (ideally) lower in cost to operate than the nearly fully expendable Black Gemini/Titan 34D system whose costs had climbed as the Titan II had been withdrawn from service. With the beginning of Reagan’s Star Wars program, the Strategic Defense Initiative Office was also on the lookout for a low cost, rapid-response launcher. This would culminate in 1988 with the approval of the new Beta-II Trans-Atmospheric Vehicle contract. This contract called for a new partially-reusable system capable of either launching Titan 34D-equivalent payloads (and thus carrying the numerous SDIO payloads anticipated in the coming decade) or serving as a reusable and modern replacement for Black Gemini. The goal was a fully-reusable system which could match the servicing capabilities if not scale of USAF’s military shuttle, carrying crew or logistics to civilian or military stations, and with an expendable second stage replacing the crew orbiter, take over the launch capabilities of the obsolete Titan family.


Concepts studied for the Trans-Atmospheric Vehicle​

While single-stage to orbit advanced systems were studied early during TAV design, it rapidly became clear that the margins for single-stage access to orbit were thin, with little chance for recovery from optimistic early assumptions. By contrast, proposals for TAV which would have seen a near-SSTO rocket stage launch from the back of an existing subsonic airliner like the Boeing 747 ran into problems with capacity. Given the low payload fraction of even near-SSTO, not even the massive jumbo jet was large enough to lift an orbiter of useful size. To secure the capabilities required to match the existing RO-72 Black Gemini, the 747 airframe would have to be nearly completely overhauled, with a new larger wing and even more radical changes like mounting an SSME rocket engine in the tail to minimize gravity losses during the high-angle of attack (“high-alpha”) separation maneuver. If a new vehicle was needed anyway, the program sought to push staging higher and faster to reduce the workload on the orbiter second stage.

Ironically, the program thus ended up with the most complex of the booster options examined. The Beta-II orbiter was a fairly conventional wing-and-fuselage design, with cylindrical hydrogen and oxygen tanks fore and aft of a Shuttle-diameter cargo bay, a single SSME for powering the vehicle to orbit, and delta wings for return. The booster, however, looked like an oversized fighter jet, with two large engine pods containing airbreathing propulsion (both turbofans and ramjets) flanking the recessed mounting bay for the orbiter with massive inlets. To prepare for a flight, the orbiter would be rolled under the booster mothership and lifted into its recess using built-in cranes and winches. The vehicles would be fueled, and the mothership would take off, cruising to the intended launch zone on turbojets before accelerating through Mach 1, lighting the ramjets, and pushing onwards and upwards to a speed over Mach 5 and an altitude over 20 kilometers before pitching up and releasing the orbiter. With this aggressive use of aerodynamics, the second stage would have more than a third the job of reaching orbit already behind it at release, enabling a design with more robust margins. The booster’s design would be the pinnacle of aerodynamic contributions to astronautics: faster than an SR-71, larger than a jumbo jet, and with the aggressive lines of a twin-engine fighter. Appropriately, the prime contract for the booster was awarded to Lockheed Aerospace, who then distributed work packages such as fuselage structures, wings, and crew cabin design among other contractors like Martin, Northrop, and Grumman. Boeing would receive a contract for the orbiter, in part to ensure competition with Rockwell’s ongoing orbiter contracts (including the replacement for Resolution, OV-106 Intrepid), but again significant portions of the vehicle were bid out to smaller contractors.


This remarkably dynamic image from this DoD PDF about Recoverable Boosters illustrates a similar-looking Rockwell proposal of similar vintage performing a takeoff - no doubt, in this timeline, an image which will grace a thousand model kit covers and issues of Aviation Week.​

When George Bush surveyed the field of military space operations upon his election in 1988, he found it--as he had seen in his days as Vice President--incredibly fractured. SDIO and USAF were collaborating (not always amicably) on a major new launch vehicle development program, while communications satellites were maintained by all three major service branches. More critically, the new Global Positioning System was becoming increasingly important in enabling maneuver warfare, combined arms, smart munitions, and even precise localization to boost the accuracy of nuclear-missile-armed submarines and their strategic weapons. Spaceflight was at the center of a growing number of front-line assets, and yet responsibility was split between the services, often used more as a bargaining chip than as a direct priority (as indeed had been the origin of the now lauded 304th Space Wing and its astronauts in the Air Force’s fights with CIA). Thus, along with his 1989 “Space Exploration Initiative,” President Bush also proposed the establishment of a new branch dedicated to control of the spaceflight domain and coordinating space operations: the United States Space Force. The Air Force’s Space Command would serve as the backbone of this new force, as well as operational units like the Eastern and Western range control squadrons and the 304th Space Wing, though other operational elements from the Navy and Army would also be lumped into the new service. Comparisons to Reagan’s Star Wars plans were common, with one paper depicting Bush climbing into a Space Shuttle Orbiter armed with a preposterously large minigun. The new branch would be formally authorized in 1990, becoming active as a separate command in 1991. While the 304th Space Wing, redesignated Space Delta 304, would become the star of the new service, most of its operational backbone would be on space awareness, satellite control, and ground-support by space assets--all of which would be ably demonstrated in the 1991 Gulf War.

However, while the Space Force was undergoing its growing pains, the new branch would find itself fighting the same headwinds as the other services with the end of the Cold War. The infant service was pressured to yield to “peace dividends'' after the fall of the primary peer competitor that the service’s structures had been conceived to fight. The Beta-II launch vehicle was viewed as the branch’s flagship program, finally delivering a rapid and robust reusable launch vehicle to complement the heavier Space Shuttle, and ensure the ability to replace space assets in the event of a major war. However, this was of lower priority in the absence of anyone to contest orbital space, and with the Space Shuttle settling into flight routines, the need for a replacement for Gemini as a backup was less urgent. Indeed, the Space Force found itself fighting just to keep the Black Gemini force active alongside the Space Shuttle Kitty Hawk and the expensive completion of the replacement orbiter Intrepid. There were accusations (not entirely unfounded) that the massive Lockheed-built booster and the Boeing-built orbiter were part of, essentially, a make-work program for the ailing aviation defense industry, as Space Shuttle itself had been in the 1970s. While this was, to some extent, true the program was also popular with Congressional officials, as funding for Beta-II subcontractors spread coast-to-coast in districts from California to New York. Still, cuts to the budget and delays to introduction were a fact of life for every new military system in the early 1990s. Thus, though originally intended to enter service by 1994 when approved in 1988, by 1992 the Beta-II system was still more than five years away from launch. Black Gemini’s operational term was extended to match, though increasingly reduced to a single flight per year--just enough to maintain basic proficiency of the limited Gemini-qualified portion of the Blackskies flight roster.

Gemini had one last brush with rejuvenation as a result of Bush’s other major initiative in space flight. As NASA contemplated lunar missions which could be accomplished within budgets that Congress was willing to tolerate, one concept which was debated was the so-called “Early Lunar Access.’ This was a plan where a Titan IV (or Beta-II) launched departure stage would join a Space Shuttle-delivered direct-landing capsule and return vehicle in orbit to form a lightweight lunar landing system. Multiple flights of this small capacity system would enable “flags-and-footprints” lunar missions, with additional launches (up to 5 landings for a single site) adding a shelter, additional scientific packages, and consumables to enable weeks on the lunar surface. In search of a lightweight command vehicle for the lunar stack, ELA’s designers turned their eyes to the last legacy of the first space race: Black Gemini. Echoing the calls of Jim Chamberlin’s original Gemini mission plans and countless McDonnell-Douglas studies thirty years earlier, ELA proposed fitting Gemini with a new, enhanced lunar heat shield and using it to ferry two astronauts on the two-week journey to the surface of the moon--essentially, an updated version of the 1960s “Rescue Gemini” concept, but launched with two of the most modern American launch vehicles instead of a single heavier but long-dead Saturn V. However, much as with the earlier Gemini lunar access proposals thirty years prior, NASA was more interested in larger launch vehicles and more capable systems, and the Space Force was profoundly disinterested in diverting any of their funding or Gemini support systems to such a program.Instead, they reserved their efforts for promoting Space Delta 304’s Space Shuttle and Beta-II capabilities, courting new commercial customers for Beta-II in the growing megaconstallation bubble.

Rejected from the moon again and unheralded in its annual flights, the Gemini program counted down the years to its final launches for the third time. When George Bush lost re-election to charismatic newcomer Bill Clinton, many expected the creation of the Space Force to be reversed, alongside the wind-down of the Strategic Defense Initiative. However, with the standup of the branch already complete and its missions proven critical in Desert Shield and Desert Storm, Space Force persisted. The branch even retained funding for its flagship Beta-II launcher as part of a new program to reap the commercial benefits of the vehicle as a “peace dividend” selling launches on the commercial market. Once more out of the limelight, Gemini’s missions to refuel KH-11 and the few remaining KH-9 platforms were unheralded and increasingly duplicative of more capable Space Shuttle launches, and Beta-II’s launch date, though delayed, asymptotically converged on flight. In the first months of 1995, the first Beta-II carrier airplane was rolled out to much public fanfare by Lockheed Martin and the type christened the “Blackstar” in reference to both the company’s previous Blackbird and the operational Black Gemini whose replacement it would launch. Later that year, after taxi tests and propulsion checks, Blackstar made its first solo flight, taking its place among aviation legends as it shattered the sound barrier and then speed records. Boeing’s orbiter, OV-201 Robert Lawrence was rolled out in a similar ceremony later that year, ahead of the complete system’s first captive carry flight in 1996. Over 1997 and 1998, the Beta-II vehicles (often sometimes colloquially referred to as the “Blackstar system”) demonstrated basic system functionality and tested the high-alpha separation for operational flights with both glide tests and powered flight “burps” of the orbiter’s main engines. With these risks retired,OV-201 Robert Lawrence made the system's long-delayed first orbital flight with a crew of two in 1998. The new shuttle’s successful return spelled the final end of Black Gemini.

The last launch of the Black Gemini, Blacksky 83, lifted off October 27th, 1999, attended by President Bill Clinton, Vice-President Al Gore, General (Ret.) Buzz Aldrin, and other dignitaries. It was the sixth operational Blackskies mission of the year, following two Beta-II missions and three Space Shuttle launches. Ellison Onizuka and Susan Johnson flew one last hurrah for the squadron’s original vehicle. One last time, they carried out fueling and minor servicing of a KH-11 KENNAN satellite. The capsule, completing thirty-five years of operations between NASA, USAF, and Space Force in the last year of the old millennium had flown just one shy of a hundred missions: 12 NASA Geminis, 4 Winged Gemini, and 83 Black Gemini flights. In the process, it had ensured that a US crew had operated in space every year for a third of a century. Though overshadowed by Shuttle for much of the last two decades of operation and Apollo for much of the decade before that, Gemini’s place in the history of spaceflight is assured by its longevity and varied capabilities. Never the most capable or prestigious of vehicles, Gemini's combination of capabilities and low cost nevertheless made it unique among spacecraft for thirty-five years. It is remarkable to imagine what potential might have been lost had the program been cut short at any of its near-terminations, or what might have occurred from more aggressive Gemini-derived alternatives to other flown programs.

[1] Cypress Ridge was one of the sites considered for SLC-7 in the late 1980s as a new Titan IV launch facility. Instead of a new pad, SLC-4, which had previously launched Titan IIID and 34D was upgraded and used. Information on the site can be found in ADA413951: Environmental Impact Statement: Construction and Operation of Titan IV/Centaur Launch Complex, Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. Volume 3.
 
Last edited:
Okay, so...belated April Fool's: the timeline wasn't over yesterday. I promised two stories of the secret second life of Gemini, after all...this is the second - an entirely separate path things could have taken from the mid-70s in the timeline. Take your pick: the 1980s end may be more reasonable, but is this more fun? Anyway, now it's over, and the stories are fully declassified...or is it? I hope you all enjoy.
 
Last edited:
I'm not asking for explosions, or fatalities, or total mission failures. I'm just noting that a military / industrial venture involving complex systems (human and material) is going to engage with failure due largely to humans being involved and how complex humans are in systems. Out of the 12 "White" missions, and ~52 "Black" missions, using the white missions and apollo missions as an estimate, there are 8 failures out there. From heatsink tiles failing to perform as expected, or aborts on film replacements, or early aborts. Obviously the hope is that the use of stable vehicles and launch systems, which are made to high standards including inspection and testing standards, should restrict the failures to stuff that would never make the papers in a "White" programme, let alone fatalities.
Pure statistics aren't going to tell the full story, especially given the small number of missions that's based on and how early they are in the vehicle operational lives. As an example of the weakness of small-number program statistics, Soyuz had an astounding 2 lethal failures, 1 additional mission failure, and 4 partial failures in its first ten crewed missions. Clearly, based on this, you'd expect that over the next 30 or so operational missions, there's must have been 5 or 6 more losses and only about ten flights which could uncomplicatedly be called total successes, right? Nope! No further losses of crew, only one partial failure, and five failures to dock due to docking system problems. Less than half the rate of incidents you might expect, as they got better at flying the spacecraft and worked the bugs out - and the big bug, the Soyuz docking system, is well proven in the early Geminis to the extent I'm not thinking it's likely to have any issues in Black Gemini which would, as you say, make the papers even in NASA's program. The archives of Black Gemini, once declassified to the public in the 2010s or so will no doubt show plenty of partial failures: issues with swapping buckets, mission tasks left incomplete, and so on. However, covering that in detail would have blown this up beyond the length we were aiming for, and such small failures don't detract hugely from the success of the program as a whole.

Which is a very tasteful way to indicate that the following programme did not successfully restrict failures to non-vehicle loss, by referencing a very lovely story about hobbyist love for the historical shuttle programme.
I'm glad you felt it was tasteful, I grow a little tired of trying to find new ways to kill orbiters and justify it in detail, and so for this we just...decided not to go into detail. However, I was previously not particularly aware of that mockup, and I think we get the name from a common source. Resolution made several Shuttle name lists over the years. It was, for instance, the #2 suggestion for Endeavour by frequency in the school competition for naming the replacement orbiter, and the connection to optics is a not-so-subtle pun on the USAF mission. Thanks for the link to that story!

On funding I assume all this is covered by launching fewer satellites than OTL but thanks to resupply getting more total film than OTL plus a bit of reallocation within the DoD budget. So one fewer F-16 Squadron, some barracks not getting renovated, some programs getting terminated a bit earlier than OTL etc.
Something like that, yeah. Black Gemini is expensive, but not that expensive.
 
Last edited:
However, I was previously not particularly aware of that mockup, and I think we get the name from a common source. Resolution made several Shuttle name lists over the years. It was, for instance, the #2 suggestion for Endeavour by frequency in the school competition for naming the replacement orbiter, and the connection to optic is a no-so-subtle pun on the USAF mission.
Cook's vessel during his second and third voyage was the HMS Resolution, which pretty much explains why the same showed up so much--it exactly fits in the "exploring ship" scheme that NASA used for the Shuttle program IOTL, and of course makes a nice pair with Endeavour, Cook's ship on his first voyage (ITTL, the use of Kitty Hawk for OV-103 breaks the scheme slightly, but only slightly, as the Kitty Hawk was arguably also a kind of "exploring ship")
 
A very fun ending, though I wonder a bit about whether a gigantic Mach 5 airplane like that would actually have been feasible. Since you mention model kits, it looks oddly like a kitbash of a MiG-31 and an XB-70--if you had two kits in differing scales, one probably could build that. Still, Gemini as a core element for TTL's early-lunar-access makes a lot of sense, even if it never happens. And I like the recurring motif of the number 2 in the writing--it has a certain elegance.
 
The Blackstar sounds amazingly optimistic but it's April Fool's day so why key a little thing like technical affordability* derail the fun.


*not technological viability, unlike the SSTO designs a TSTO system as described fits within the laws of physics. Whether it can be developed with plausible early 90's budget allocations is another matter.
 
I loved this timeline. Really fun. These small serials are so great!
I especially like the name-dropping of LFBB and Hermes! ITTL, what circumstances lead to those programs coming to fruition? What version of LFBB do you think is flying ITTL? What does the European space program (and those of Japan, Russia, China, and India) look like ITTL ? I would imagine than an increased US military presence in space might prompt to fund more space programs than in OTL, for both civilian and military purposes. Does ISS/Freedom look pretty similar to OTL, or does the difference in space capabilities of various international partners change it>
 
It may have been April Fool's, but this timeline was no joke! Really enjoyed this look into a relatively 'forgotten' vehicle like Gemini, which clearly had a lot more potential than its short history would imply. At least within the bounds you set for it here. One wonders if the same niche could be found for the similarly stopgap Soviet vehicle that is Voshkod.

Another thing I liked was the 'forked' structure of this narrative, where various moments to extend Gemini's longevity were taken up in turn. Even if its extension into the late 90s seems implausible from the outset, every step along the way was given its own plausible justification. Indeed, something tells me TTL could be stretched out even further if the Beta-II program didn't work out, or if Gemini got to go to the Moon after all. But that would stretch plausibility to the kind of absurd limits which you only see in OTL.

Finally, I thought the 'Winged Gemini' testing interlude was particularly interesting. A shame that design didn't end up working out; was its incorporation ITTL connected to making Shuttle a more viable vehicle early on?
 
A new generation of advanced filament-wound composite-case boosters were approved for development …
… at least prior to the introduction of flyback boosters aboard the Space Shuttle in the late 1990s.
No such small, semi-reusable space vehicle would resume service until the introduction of the European Hermes more than a decade later.
Some interesting passing mentions there.
 
A very fun ending, though I wonder a bit about whether a gigantic Mach 5 airplane like that would actually have been feasible. Since you mention model kits, it looks oddly like a kitbash of a MiG-31 and an XB-70--if you had two kits in differing scales, one probably could build that.

The Blackstar sounds amazingly optimistic but it's April Fool's day so why key a little thing like technical affordability* derail the fun.

*not technological viability, unlike the SSTO designs a TSTO system as described fits within the laws of physics. Whether it can be developed with plausible early 90's budget allocations is another matter.
Mach 3 or 4 might be a little less aggressive, but they seemed to be pretty confident they could make airbreathing to those velocities work in followups, and it's about or a little slower than what Skylon was targeting for transition to internal oxygen on Sabre. It's probably a tens-of-billions program, and that's a lot of why it takes a good 12-13 years to get flying between approval in the late 80s and full operations in '99/'00. Still, it's got enough commercial and NASA applications that the Bush/Clinton-era Space Force manages to hang their hat on it in the way only a military branch with a hair up their wherever can. Besides, it's just so cool, both in-timeline and outside.

I loved this timeline. Really fun. These small serials are so great!
I especially like the name-dropping of LFBB and Hermes! ITTL, what circumstances lead to those programs coming to fruition? What version of LFBB do you think is flying ITTL?
Some interesting passing mentions there.
Liquid flyback boosters in the "Black Gemini in the 80s" branch is because the USAF is hooked enough on Shuttle that they want to make sure it works better, so it gets the investment in replacement liquid boosters and the budget upfront to make them reusable & fly back. I don't know if it's one of the versions with two folding-wing or fixed-delta versions, or the big hilarious catamaran, and we didn't go into detail on purpose. Similarly, Hermes goes ahead due to butterflies and a bit more illustration of the benefit of a small crew vehicle, possible also with NASA themselves debating the value of a small crew vehicle and helping write it into ESA's Freedom contributions. Besides, again, it's fun. There's an irony that the Shuttle gets more and better fixes in "Black Gemini and the 1980s" than in "Black Gemini and the 1990s" where it's overshadowed by Beta-II/Blackstar.
What does the European space program (and those of Japan, Russia, China, and India) look like ITTL ? I would imagine than an increased US military presence in space might prompt to fund more space programs than in OTL, for both civilian and military purposes. Does ISS/Freedom look pretty similar to OTL, or does the difference in space capabilities of various international partners change it>
Hard to say in detail, and it'd get long to think about it, so we didn't go into much detail in planning it. What do you think? Recall, there's two different "ITTL"s...

It may have been April Fool's, but this timeline was no joke! Really enjoyed this look into a relatively 'forgotten' vehicle like Gemini, which clearly had a lot more potential than its short history would imply. At least within the bounds you set for it here. One wonders if the same niche could be found for the similarly stopgap Soviet vehicle that is Voshkod.

Another thing I liked was the 'forked' structure of this narrative, where various moments to extend Gemini's longevity were taken up in turn. Even if its extension into the late 90s seems implausible from the outset, every step along the way was given its own plausible justification. Indeed, something tells me TTL could be stretched out even further if the Beta-II program didn't work out, or if Gemini got to go to the Moon after all. But that would stretch plausibility to the kind of absurd limits which you only see in OTL.

Finally, I thought the 'Winged Gemini' testing interlude was particularly interesting. A shame that design didn't end up working out; was its incorporation ITTL connected to making Shuttle a more viable vehicle early on?
Thank you for the kind words! This was a test of a structure I've been thinking about for a while - sometimes when writing an AH, I've hit a point in research where I wished I could just write something multiple ways...and so here we did. I think it turned out pretty well, and I hope others do too. Here's some fun: read the transition of Post 2 into Post 3...and then re-order them and read the transition of Post 3 into Post 2. It's supposed to work either way, and either to work without the other as the "true" conclusion to the TL.

Voshkod has the issue of no docking port, and Soyuz already being planned for both military and "civilian" uses, the line between those in the Soviet program being a lot less relevant. More Almaz, if that hadn't had some many issues, is an interesting question: imagine a US Hexagon/Gemini program, against Soviet near-DORIAN.

I'm not going to say I didn't turn over the thought of Gemini to the moon with ELA or as a "Big Gemini" ACRV for Freedom/ISS, but...I just didn't want to let this get any longer. Boldly Going already tried that once.

As for Winged Gemini...it's cool, but it doesn't bring a lot of capability other than the cross-range, which Gemini can mostly deal with by just timing its return, and the design they were looking at would be annoying with an abort tower. Hence, once they get the data they need for Shuttle TPS and demonstrating energy management at hyper/subsonic speeds, it's retired. Basically, they get a year or two jump on the tile densification/pulloff issues, but engines mean that Shuttle still debuts about the same time as OTL.

Has no one commented on the first female astronaut, Samantha 'Sam' Carter?
She's one of...I believe three cameos. The other two are a little less obvious. In keeping with the timeline, one's identity is obscured, while the other is merely obscure. Can anyone spot them?
 
Last edited:
Ah, now the real ending! Love this a lot, really feels like a well thought out and exciting timeline. Really happy to see you guys working on stuff, brings me joy.
 
The last launch of the Black Gemini, Blacksky 83, lifted off October 27th, 1999, attended by President Bill Clinton, Vice-President Al Gore, General (Ret.) Buzz Aldrin, and other dignitaries.
Also, where did this capsule end up? if you had an idea.
 
Hard to say in detail, and it'd get long to think about it, so we didn't go into much detail in planning it. What do you think? Recall, there's two different "ITTL"s...
I'd imagine in both TLs, the US's militarization of space gets some criticism from members of the international community, especially from the USSR and both Soviet-aligned and non-aligned nations. Now that I've given it more consideration, I think the initial shock of the reveal of the program might lead to the USSR starting/boosting a competing program (maybe like that Soviet near-DORIAN you suggested above), but by the time other nations' programs come to maturity, American military activity in space is normal and doesn't cause a lot of changes relative to OTL. Perhaps in the Blackstar timeline, an egotistical Roscosmos Director General proposes a different fully reusable SSTO or TSTO every few months instead of a SHLV like in OTL.

I don't think Freedom/ISS changes all that much in the TL that ends in 1986, besides a larger European presence thanks to Hermes. Perhaps in the event of the loss of a shuttle during station construction, the station is not restricted to only 2 crew before the Return to Flight thanks to Hermes.
I think Freedom/ISS doesn't change much in the Blackstar TL. Maybe a NASA Beta-II helps construct and service the station or it could become the vehicle that always gets proposed as an alternative vehicle to launch station components and commercial vehicles, but never gets selected. In the event of the loss of a shuttle during station construction, perhaps Beta-II can prevent the cancellation of some station modules by offloading some of Shuttle's manifest.

My final thought is that Beta-II would probably becomes the primary American crew vehicle and replaces Shuttle by 2010-2015.
 
Post 1: Black Gemini from Conception to Flight

Thanks for the heads up as it would have taken me longer, (and four pages already, dang guys :) to catch up. I was sick over the weekend, (nothing too serious but my REAL boss {wife} complained that I got NOTHING done :) ) so didn't check for updates or alerts till Monday.

First of all awesome (first entry/page so far) stuff but I'm afraid my "immersion" was busted pretty quickly by the illustrations and Kerbal pics. Awesome work as usual but... I'm afraid the Air Force would never approve of the program or execution of the vehicle due to inadequacies in the design. "United States" is simply unacceptable on the side of that capsule! If it's not "United States Air Force" (and really it needs the 'winged' star because we can't expect the various grunts, jarheads and squids to actually be able to READ now can we?) on the side there might be some 'mistake' in being able to tell who's the most awesome and bestest service OF the "United States".
Program priorities people, program priorities...

Secondly I'm glad Major Carter obeyed the order to "get a life" :)

Third I'm not sure I buy the authenticity of that winged Gemini document... Where's the gun mount and the bomb racks? It's the Air Force after all :)

Great work as usual

Randy
 
Additional declassifications follow...

Post 2: Black Gemini and the 1980s

Again awesome stuff :)

While the 304th Space Wing’s support divisions and some of their pilots were learning alongside NASA at Houston and Kennedy Space Center, the wing’s primary operations with Gemini continued, if increasingly overshadowed by the “next big thing”. The organization was actively counting down, mission by mission, to the day when Gemini’s “tin can” would finally be retired. While some pilots looked forward to the enhanced operational flexibility and comfort of the new Space Shuttle over their current Gemini “tin can,” others were nostalgic for the spacecraft they had flown for the past decade. The hardships of flying Gemini, like those of other difficult postings in the past, created a certain esprit de corps and pride in those able to manage the task flight after flight. Whether anticipated or regretted, every flight to one of USAF’s spy satellites was one closer to the day Gemini would fly no more. Preparations were already underway for the day when the new, larger Shuttle crews would be needed, including recruiting yet more astronaut pilots and--for the first time--dedicated non-pilot payload and EVA specialists. Among these ranks, the 304th Space Wing recruited their first enlisted astronauts, training a group of highly senior Master Sergeants in the tricky business of orbital operations and EVA.

So they had Master Sergeants aboard to supervise the ACTUAL specialists the Tech Sergeants who then delegated and oversaw the Senior Airmen who actually did the work... Oh and the single, highly over-worked Airman First Class who made the coffee, vacuumed the cabin and got to fix the Space Toilet... :)

Shuttle EVA crews discovered a sticker depicting the Gemini capsule’s distinctive “snout” sticking over the limb of the Earth, and bearing the caption “GEMINI WAS HERE”, a reference to the famous Kilroy image, arguably one of the earliest “memes.”


Black Gemini “Kilroy” image created by @NorangePeels

Kawai!

As a 'follow-up' on Winged Gemini I'll note that they floated and considered using a "highly modified" Gemini capsule for an 'escape capsule' design for some early Shuttle and Flyback Booster concepts. I've even seen some proposed Dynasoar models where the 'cockpit' is a Gemini capsule.

Also the fact that TTL has had more experience (and requirements for) with EVA operations and actually 'working in' space plus the already proven (though classified) ability to service satellites on orbit would have major knock-on effects down the road for satellite and orbital operations.

Randy
 
No additional disclosures follow...

Post 3: Black Gemini and the 1990s

Again wonderful and awesome :)

This would culminate in 1988 with the approval of the new Beta-II Trans-Atmospheric Vehicle contract. This contract called for a new partially-reusable system capable of either launching Titan 34D-equivalent payloads (and thus carrying the numerous SDIO payloads anticipated in the coming decade) or serving as a reusable and modern replacement for Black Gemini. The goal was a fully-reusable system which could match the servicing capabilities if not scale of USAF’s military shuttle, carrying crew or logistics to civilian or military stations, and with an expendable second stage replacing the crew orbiter, take over the launch capabilities of the obsolete Titan family.

That's ok "Spacejet", you'll get your day someday soon :)

I actually like the "BETA II" concept (both of them in fact :) ) but a point I'd make is the "airbreathing only" version I think only made Mach 4 whereas the rocket boosted version hit about Mach 6. Not that Mach 5 isn't doably on subsonic combustion ramjets, (good call not allowing a SCramjet side-trek :) ) as they have extensive testing up to speeds of Mach 8 (rumored Mach 10 but nothing I've actually seen outside of engineer's who actually worked on them word) and almost Mach 5 in flight testing. (For a certain form of 'testing' as it was a fuel valve failure :) )

However, while the Space Force was undergoing its growing pains, the new branch would find itself fighting the same headwinds as the other services with the end of the Cold War. The infant service was pressured to yield to “peace dividends'' after the fall of the primary peer competitor that the service’s structures had been conceived to fight.

Good to see an earlier "Space Force" but not unexpected given the circumstances. And then the old "Peace Dividend" debacle where Republicans ran with a Democrat talking point mentioned in passing by a Republican President.... Nice to see politics plays a part in ANY timeline :)

A very fun ending, though I wonder a bit about whether a gigantic Mach 5 airplane like that would actually have been feasible.
The Blackstar sounds amazingly optimistic but it's April Fool's day so why key a little thing like technical affordability* derail the fun.


*not technological viability, unlike the SSTO designs a TSTO system as described fits within the laws of physics. Whether it can be developed with plausible early 90's budget allocations is another matter.


The contractor (Boeing) certainly thought so but the biggest 'issue' was always the engines since they assumed that the new generation supersonic bomber engines would continue development which the end of the Cold War killed. Still there were options available and OTL the 'other' factor that killed the concept was it being heavily tied into both a new large, supersonic engine development program and the switch from subsonic to SCramjets as a 'requirement' for development which was ANOTHER new engine development program on top of everything else.

And at least it's more plausible than the OTL "Blackstar" :)

Has no one commented on the first female astronaut, Samantha 'Sam' Carter?
Just because her reproductive organs are on the inside instead of the outside doesn’t mean that she can’t handle what the other astrospies can.

She's pretty damn good with a P90 as well :)

Mach 3 or 4 might be a little less aggressive, but they seemed to be pretty confident they could make airbreathing to those velocities work in followups, and it's about or a little slower than what Skylon was targeting for transition to internal oxygen on Sabre. It's probably a tens-of-billions program, and that's a lot of why it takes a good 12-13 years to get flying between approval in the late 80s and full operations in '99/'00. Still, it's got enough commercial and NASA applications that the Bush/Clinton-era Space Force manages to hang their hat on it in the way only a military branch with a hair up their wherever can. Besides, it's just so cool, both in-timeline and outside.

By the early 90s there were a good number of concepts for getting low-hypersonic propulsion relatively "on-the-cheap" but the end of the Cold War killed most of them and SCramjets had a better PR department :) Mach 5-ish is the point where you really want to stop trying to swallow (and deal with) all that extremely hot air anyway and getting up and out of the atmosphere makes more sense. Hence most concepts 'pop-up' at that point even if they continue to pile on some speed with a rocket engine or two.
And getting the concept out-side the military (or as here having the military open up to possible commercial use on occasion) helps a lot.

Liquid flyback boosters in the "Black Gemini in the 80s" branch is because the USAF is hooked enough on Shuttle that they want to make sure it works better, so it gets the investment in replacement liquid boosters and the budget upfront to make them reusable & fly back. I don't know if it's one of the versions with two folding-wing or fixed-delta versions, or the big hilarious catamaran, and we didn't go into detail on purpose.

I LIKE the catamaran thank you very much :D
Oh and I like that you referenced the "Reusable Booster" paper I'd meant to bring that up at some point but kept forgetting. Oddly NASA's "preferred" concept was the dual forward folding swing wing booster design but the initial report I'd seen only noted that in one illustration whereas the "catamaran" was more talked about in the text. Of course NASA went on to do a LOT of study on the 'preferred' design and not much more on the catamaran concept, mores the pity :(

Similarly, Hermes goes ahead due to butterflies and a bit more illustration of the benefit of a small crew vehicle, possible also with NASA themselves debating the value of a small crew vehicle and helping write it into ESA's Freedom contributions. Besides, again, it's fun.

Having "Winged Gemini" fly is going to provide a LOT of data on small scale lifting reentry that we didn't have OTL which would have greatly beneficial down-steam effects for things like Hermes so good on you! :)

I'm not going to say I didn't turn over the thought of Gemini to the moon with ELA or as a "Big Gemini" ACRV for Freedom/ISS, but...I just didn't want to let this get any longer. Boldly Going already tried that once.

The problem (as noted) is that once you get a 'working' Lunar vehicle it's pretty much very much no longer "Gemini" and any 'savings' is out the window. I've got notes on a concept where "Mercury Mk II" is essentially a very basic upgrade of Mercury (so they can continue to compete with the Russians while waiting on Apollo) with the next program being "Mercury Mk III" (Gemini) coming around next but specifically keeping the "Mercury" name to give the impression to Congress that it's "just another upgrade" to Mercury :) (Mk II will have some 'fun' with the "Mercury Escape Hatch" :) )

As for Winged Gemini...it's cool, but it doesn't bring a lot of capability other than the cross-range, which Gemini can mostly deal with by just timing its return, and the design they were looking at would be annoying with an abort tower. Hence, once they get the data they need for Shuttle TPS and demonstrating energy management at hyper/subsonic speeds, it's retired. Basically, they get a year or two jump on the tile densification/pulloff issues, but engines mean that Shuttle still debuts about the same time as OTL.

Well as noted it also helps with a lot of the 'assumptions' and bad simulations that also were in the mix pre-Shuttle and it gives something more 'open' to allow Gemini to stay in the public eye. On the subject of an abort tower IIRC the main issue was how much they'd have to beef-up the 'nose' and concerns over the possible issues with still using the nose-docking system with the strong-points and hardware of the escape tower being in the same place.
Kind of figured (as did some of the Gemini extension studies) they'd go with the pusher escape system earlier on.

She's one of...I believe three cameos. The other two are a little less obvious. In keeping with the timeline, one's identity is obscured, while the other is merely obscure. Can anyone spot them?

I noted the 'authors' of the initial paper on page one, then Sam but if there were others I missed them

Randy
 
Top