Why do people seem to think the Black Death only killed Europeans? It killed lots of people in the Middle East and Central Asia as well. This is the major problem I had with the Years of Rice and Salt.
Any epidemic terrible enough to "destroy" Europe also destroys Egypt, Tunisia, and the Middle East. If we assume that the disease will penetrate into those parts of Europe which avoided it IOTL, then the same will happen in the Middle East including parts of Persia.
Once enough people die off that the institutions of civilization can no longer be supported by the agricultural surplus, then there is a societal collapse. Most of Western and Arab civilization Since nature abhors a vacuum, eventually those lands will be filled by migration from the East. Indians may move into eastern Persia. Turks into the Middle East. Mongols into Russia and Central Europe. Western Europe and western North Africa will probably demographically recover before their societies are completely overwhelmed, but except for perhaps Scandinavia and British Isles, their societies will be ruled by new elites coming from the east.
Any epidemic terrible enough to "destroy" Europe also destroys Egypt, Tunisia, and the Middle East. If we assume that the disease will penetrate into those parts of Europe which avoided it IOTL, then the same will happen in the Middle East including parts of Persia.
Once enough people die off that the institutions of civilization can no longer be supported by the agricultural surplus, then there is a societal collapse. Most of Western and Arab civilization Since nature abhors a vacuum, eventually those lands will be filled by migration from the East. Indians may move into eastern Persia. Turks into the Middle East. Mongols into Russia and Central Europe. Western Europe and western North Africa will probably demographically recover before their societies are completely overwhelmed, but except for perhaps Scandinavia and British Isles, their societies will be ruled by new elites coming from the east.