Black Death Destroys 80 Percent of Population

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Spreading throughout the Mediterranean and Europe, the Black Death is estimated to have killed 30–60 percent of Europe's population[3] and reduced the world population from an estimated 450 million to between 350 and 375 million in the 14th century.

Why couldn't it have killed 50-80 percent?

But, I already explained. I can't say I think much of your reading comprehension. You can reread it at post 69 of the thread. And 60% is very much the high end - by the way things work, 50%s a likelier high. Many historians do that alot - they believe smallpox wiped an implausible 90%, when in reality, the job was finished by the human disease.

And, I wish you'd make up your mind. 50% or 80%?

Real diseases have real limits based on how they work, just like everything else.
 
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France is not that relevant to Poland.

Yes, I wanted to give demographic informations about XIVth century that I know to be exact. And I study the 1328 french census.

Germany will be, as well as Hungary
German population was around 8-10 million
Hungary had 2,5-3 million.
Bohemia 1,5- 2 million

From the map on the first page, it seems that parts of Bohemia and Hungary were also untouched by the Black Death. From others maps, you posted I think, it seems that Silesia and part of south-eastern germany are also untouched as Poland.


If they drop by 80%, it means:
:Hungary no longer in position of relevance to Polish throne
:Bohemia won''t be able to resist Polish advances in Silesia
:Teutonic Order will lose its manpower source in form of Germanic knights being recruited

So most likely result is return of Polish control over Silesia and Pomerania.

Without the threat of Teutonic Knights there is little need for alliance with Lithuania, and probable next king of Poland is Siemowit of Masovia, prolonging the Piast line on Polish throne(in our world, he was stopped by Hungarian faction,while being supported by other Polish nobility).

It will be logical for Poland to contest control of former polish lands as the eastern Pomerania and Gdansk and lands disputed with the Teutonic Order, and to contest domination over Silesia, a rich and well developed region very close to Krakow and Wielkopolska... But in 1335 Kazimierz III relinquished "in perpetuity" his claims to Silesia.

In fact, given the butterflies of the Black Death, it will be possible for Casimir III to have a son with a legitimate wife (he was married four times and was unlucky about gender balance of his children), and he had a bastard son with a mistress.

But I have seen posts about a Europe dominated by Poland that I found ASB even if this TL.

So we can have a Poland who will context foreign domination over Silesia and eastern parts of Pomerania. A Teutonic Order that will probably lost against Poland and that will suffered from a internal revolt of locals prussians, a revolt probably helped by Lituania.

We can expected former Teutonic lands being divided between Poland, Masovia and Lituania and a lot of tensions on this north-eastern borders...

Maybe Masovia will become more integrated in Poland as the Lituanians and the Prussians can become a real treat. We can also have tensions on the Ruthenian border as influence of the Poles and the Lituanians will conflicted in Wolyn/Red Ruthenia...

PS : I reread all of the topic, and particulary yours posts

And I agree with most of your ideas about a Poland from the Oder to the Bug with parts of Red Ruthenia/Wolyn and even Podolia, but in my opinion without western Pomerania (still independant), Podlachia (still lituanian) and most of Prussia (becoming independant as prussian or lituanian dominated).

Parts of eastern Saxony (Lusatia) or even Brandenburg can also become interessant for the Polish Kings as these areas was once polish or dominated by western slavic population...
 
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