Bjorko's Bindin': "Of course I can make this treaty, I'm the goddamned Tsar"

raharris1973

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What if Tsar Nicholas II gets really stubborn and rejects all the advice of his ministers about the incompatibility of the Treaty of Bjorko with Russia's other alliance commitments?

It's 1904 or 1905, Russia now has an alliance with Germany, and it does abrogate its alliance with France either. In fact, the Russians are inviting France into a 3 way alliance.

I'd presume that Tsarist firmness in committing to the deal with Germany would be echoed by the Kaiser overruling any objections to the treaty also.

So, with a Russo-German alliance in central Europe, the two power can dictate terms to the small states of the Balkans and compel the Austro-Hungarians to come along for the ride.

Meanwhile, France is pissed off, because a Russia friendly to Germany, even if Russia is still friendly to France, negates the benefit of having Russia as an ally *against* Germany for a revanche rematch.

But what options does France have. Would disappointment lead France to abrogate the alliance with Russia? Would French diplomats and strategists think it wise to get carried away like that?
Would France cut off its credits and investments in Russia? That could hurt Russia, and there's no guarantee that substituting German capital will happen. But, were the prior 10+ years of French investment in Russia such that the French would be cutting their own throats in sabotaging the Russian economy? Could France find itself "going along to get along" and so staying aligned with Russia and not rocking the boat against Germany?

What happens in Europe in general, and for the French in particular, if we go with this PoD?
 
What if Tsar Nicholas II gets really stubborn and rejects all the advice of his ministers about the incompatibility of the Treaty of Bjorko with Russia's other alliance commitments?

It's 1904 or 1905, Russia now has an alliance with Germany, and it does abrogate its alliance with France either. In fact, the Russians are inviting France into a 3 way alliance.

I'd presume that Tsarist firmness in committing to the deal with Germany would be echoed by the Kaiser overruling any objections to the treaty also.

So, with a Russo-German alliance in central Europe, the two power can dictate terms to the small states of the Balkans and compel the Austro-Hungarians to come along for the ride.

Meanwhile, France is pissed off, because a Russia friendly to Germany, even if Russia is still friendly to France, negates the benefit of having Russia as an ally *against* Germany for a revanche rematch.

But what options does France have. Would disappointment lead France to abrogate the alliance with Russia? Would French diplomats and strategists think it wise to get carried away like that?
Would France cut off its credits and investments in Russia? That could hurt Russia, and there's no guarantee that substituting German capital will happen. But, were the prior 10+ years of French investment in Russia such that the French would be cutting their own throats in sabotaging the Russian economy? Could France find itself "going along to get along" and so staying aligned with Russia and not rocking the boat against Germany?

What happens in Europe in general, and for the French in particular, if we go with this PoD?

Creating a massive headache for your military establishment just when you'll be needing their bayonets for picketing your Absolutists throne? To be honest, I'm not sure Nicholas II would be able to (peacefully) survive the Revolution of 1905 in those circumstances. The Russian government, even its more Conservative sections, are now in a bind: they can't effectively prepare for a potential war, as they have no clear idea who it'd even be against, are going to have trouble with the French firms they're contracting their modern weapons from, and the Russian liberals are just going to see the contradiction as a further example of how much Royal politics is screwing up the Russian nation's ability to function effectively. Add that to the already existing financial strains and the disastrous war news coming from the Far East (Along with, I imagine, the French turning to back the liberal movements in Russia in hopes to getting them to diplomatically break with Germany), and when the time comes to surpress the rioters I'm not certain all of the Tsar's military and police are going to obey, to say nothing of the local officals. This could easily break out into a Civil War within Russia... which could light the power-keg 10 years early if Wilhelm sends in the German army to "protect" his ally.
 
IIRC Willie & Nikki tried to do just this, over drinks on their yachts in the Baltic. When they returned to the capitols the respective foreign offices refused to publish the agreement & refused to act on it at all. The Czar & Kaiser sulked a bit, but beheading anyone was no longer a option so the agreement died.
 
First, Nicky was always stubborn. The idea that he was wishy washy reflecting the last person he talked to comes from the fact that he didn't like to argue with people. He was Tsar and would get his way in the end no matter what He always insisted that he would only join Bjorko if France did as well. Since France wouldn't join, he dropped it.

Second, domestically Nicholas the "revolution" of 1905 is overblown. Its not really a revolution and lacked any real leadership. It was never a threat to the regime. Most of the violence is in the borderlands and not the Russian heartland and is particularly strong among Jews. That foreign policy would govern a domestic upheaval is doubtful in the extreme. The loyalty of the Army and police was never seriously in doubt. The only thing the regime needed was winter which always breaks Russian domestic disturbances

Third, from a foreign policy perspective: The Tsar made a big mistake here. If he had kept to Bjorko, then Germany would have stayed Austria's hand in the Balkans and Russia's headaches would quickly disappear Its the same strategy Italy was using to keep Austria in check- Austria might disregard Italy but Germany wouldn't allow it.

The biggest loser would be Britain- unable to use the Triple Alliance to check Russia or Russia to check Germany, the British would be forced to try and check them on her own. British defense spending would soar and her economy go down the tubes as well.

The only problem would be Japan- but the Japanese could never be more than a nuisance
 
The only problem would be Japan- but the Japanese could never be more than a nuisance
In OTL this attitude led Russia to defeat in the Far East.

Many influential members of the landowning nobility were pro-German, and they were widely represented in the upper ranks of the Army as well. So no, despite Pan-Slavist agitation against any deals with the oppressive Teutons, the military and security forces are not a problem here. The liberals were already dead-set against the Autocracy anyhow, so courting them by allying with the French and the British makes little sense either.

The primary reason why Russia stuck with the French alliance was that on peacetime it was economically very beneficial deal for modernizing Russia - and on paper it looked so strong that many believed it would threaten the Dual Alliance into compliance and submission and thus guarantee peace in Europe. Russia needed tariffs to protect her industry and ever-important grain imports, while German Junker magnates wanted none of it, and were influential in pressuring Russia to accepting the unfair OTL trade deals of 1905 - for the pro-German elements of Russian society, this was a sign that Germany was a greedy competitor, not a true friend.
 
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