Bring him back? he wasn't ousted as was unable to wrangle the crisis?
Karl Anton von Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen
Karl Anton von Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen
Recalling Manteuffel would certainly be possible - he was still participating in politics as a member of the Herrenhaus - but I'm not sure how far the liberals would accept this. On the one hand, he was clearly a civilian politician (unlike Roon or his cousin Edwin von Manteuffel), and his administration had seen some more liberal reforms regarding censorship and the economy. On the other hand, he was still seen as something of a reactionary by many, and in the increasingly polarised situation of Prussian domestic politics in 1866, he'd probably be unlikely to make any major concessions. As for his foreign policy, he may well be inclined to take a firm stance on Austria, but it's worth remembering - as his opponents would no doubt point out - that he was one of the main figures behind the Capitulation of Olmütz. Then again, though, he's probably one of the only reasonable options for Wilhelm at this stage - unless he recalls someone different, and brings in Karl Anton von Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen, who has his own pros and cons.
Perhaps there might have been a conference to salvage some sort of balance in Europe, but would it have happened after France occupies the Rhineland, or before?
Or after she has been booted out of it again, by a coalition of Russia, Prussia and GB?
That's a good point about Karl - I suspect that the liberals would only accept him if substantial concessions were made, perhaps with leading liberals appointed to other offices or some ground conceded over the constitution. On the other hand, I'm not sure if his Catholicism would necessarily be as large an obstacle as that - from what I've read, it wasn't too significant during his original ministry, although in the climate of possible war with Austria, religious issues might return to the forefront. Manteuffel probably would be the best choice overall, if he would agree to do it (which isn't a done deal - by the looks of things, he seems to have mostly withdrawn from the frontlines by the 1860s). You're right in saying that a separate, and much more autonomous, foreign minister would need to be appointed, though - who would be a likely choice here?Appoint a co-dynasty would, I beleive, probably set off some alarm bells if there's fears of a monarchal power-grab. The Sigmarinegen branch of the family also has the Catholic issue to deal with, which could have... troubling implications to both the astutely Protestant Junker elite and the anti-clerical liberals. If anything, Karl would probably create even greater political divides irregardless of his personal skill. As for Manteuffel's failure at Olmutz, I think the key here would be that the M-P is in charge of domestic affairs, at least offically. He'd probably have to co-operate with some other figure in the forgein office. On the other hand, it would also make him look less threatening to the Great Powers, which could help Prussia negotiate better terms than if they appointed a hardline Grossdeutchlander.
True, Karl was removed in 1862 as part of the overall constitutional crisis - however, it's worth noting that the situation in 1866 was quite different, after four years of Bismarck's flouting of the constitution. In this scenario, a few well-calculated concessions to the Landtag might serve to reassure the liberals that things will start getting better for them in the absence of Bismarck (especially considering Karl's reputation as being somewhat moderate), and secure their cooperation on foreign policy.Bring him back? he wasn't ousted as was unable to wrangle the crisis?
Possible and Karl would drum with Wilhelm about getting a prize from austria and they would rally the flag around the luxembourg crisis. But this would butterfly away the franco prussian war as the spanish government might not ask for leopold in a more tense atmosphere, so those might got to war over anything else or not war at all...that is up the airTrue, Karl was removed in 1862 as part of the overall constitutional crisis - however, it's worth noting that the situation in 1866 was quite different, after four years of Bismarck's flouting of the constitution. In this scenario, a few well-calculated concessions to the Landtag might serve to reassure the liberals that things will start getting better for them in the absence of Bismarck (especially considering Karl's reputation as being somewhat moderate), and secure their cooperation on foreign policy.
With Bismarck dying in March 1866, there might not even be a Luxembourg Crisis - when were his negotiations with Napoleon III?Possible and Karl would drum with Wilhelm about getting a prize from austria and they would rally the flag around the luxembourg crisis. But this would butterfly away the franco prussian war as the spanish government might not ask for leopold in a more tense atmosphere, so those might got to war over anything else or not war at all...that is up the air
Inexact but seems much before the war so i think is already up as the war is coming much less three month, so yeah the A-P war and the Luxembourg crisis are already in motion, all after is notWith Bismarck dying in March 1866, there might not even be a Luxembourg Crisis - when were his negotiations with Napoleon III?
I doubt it; France is only going to go into the Rhineland if she knows it won't be opposed, considering how cautious Nappy is by this point.
His nightmare scenario is getting into Britain''s bad grace's, and such a move would also serve to alienate Italy leaving him pretty diplomatically isolated. The best way I could see this happening is as a "prod" to get Prussia to agree to international mediation, with France playing the enforcement role in a joint front with Britain
an actual quote the era:Agreed - which means he almost certainly won't do it at all.
It would probably need to be with Russia rather than Britain. GB just doesn't swing enough weight on the Continent.
That's a good point about Karl - I suspect that the liberals would only accept him if substantial concessions were made, perhaps with leading liberals appointed to other offices or some ground conceded over the constitution. On the other hand, I'm not sure if his Catholicism would necessarily be as large an obstacle as that - from what I've read, it wasn't too significant during his original ministry, although in the climate of possible war with Austria, religious issues might return to the forefront. Manteuffel probably would be the best choice overall, if he would agree to do it (which isn't a done deal - by the looks of things, he seems to have mostly withdrawn from the frontlines by the 1860s). You're right in saying that a separate, and much more autonomous, foreign minister would need to be appointed, though - who would be a likely choice here?
Agreed - which means he almost certainly won't do it at all.
It would probably need to be with Russia rather than Britain. GB just doesn't swing enough weight on the Continent.
I was wondering about the possibility of a liberal foreign minister as well. It's a bit of a risk if they're going to be given the autonomy necessary to avoid worries about Manteuffel, but if Wilhelm chooses one of the future National Liberals - perhaps Hans von Unruh? - then he'd have a firm supporter of unification and an opponent of Austria for the 1866 crisis, which would probably make any Olmutz-style capitulation unlikely. Then again, Unruh (and basically all of the National Liberals) had quarrelled with the government in the past, and in any case would perhaps seek German unification over mere Prussian expansion, leading to a slightly more equal NGC (if all else goes as in OTL).I'm not entirely sure... It's quite possible the position is offered as an incentive to the Liberals since it would give them some enforcable check on royal power provided they're willing to follow through on Whilhelm's stance in the current crisis (in which case von Rood gets his prestige oppritunity, which he could later use in an attempt to subvert the deal). Manteuffel may or may not answer the call... but I can't imagine the offer won't be made.
I was wondering about the possibility of a liberal foreign minister as well. It's a bit of a risk if they're going to be given the autonomy necessary to avoid worries about Manteuffel, but if Wilhelm chooses one of the future National Liberals - perhaps Hans von Unruh? - then he'd have a firm supporter of unification and an opponent of Austria for the 1866 crisis, which would probably make any Olmutz-style capitulation unlikely. Then again, Unruh (and basically all of the National Liberals) had quarrelled with the government in the past, and in any case would perhaps seek German unification over mere Prussian expansion, leading to a slightly more equal NGC (if all else goes as in OTL).
an actual quote the era:
It is known that even on 6 August 1866, I was in the position to observe the French ambassador make his appearance to see me in order, to put it succinctly, to present an ultimatum: to relinquish Mainz, or to expect an immediate declaration of war. Naturally I was not doubtful of the answer for a second. I answered him: "Good, then it's war!" He travelled to Paris with this answer. A few days after one in Paris thought differently, and I was given to understand that this instruction had been torn from Emperor Napoleon during an illness. The further attempts in relation to Luxemburg are known
- Hollyday, FBM (1970), Bismarck, Great Lives Observed, Prentice-Hall
Russia is arguably the most likely nation to lean in on Prussia's behalf, though probably not by direct intervention. As for British influence, it's about the diplomatic and financial pressure; France would be the baton actually being waved to threaten Berlin into coming to the table