Bismark Assassinated in 66': Alternatives?

Hey there, AH Community. I'm searching for a particular bit of information, and having found myself with some major troubles in locating it have decided to turn towards the wonderful minds here in hope that one of you could direct me to a good source. Otto von Bismark, really the Arch-Conservative among the (successful) nationalist policians of his day, was really key in forming in the "conservative" version of a united German through his ability to navigate the complex waters of international diplomacy and redlining the powers of support of King/Kaiser without overly alienating any of the moderate factions to the point of revolt. In particular, A Duel of Giants has proven a useful book in exploring his character in that reguard, as well as few documentaries on German unification. However, for a work I'm on the cusp of finishing I need to know if there was any viable alternative to the man as Minister-President who could have still fufilled the role of forming a "conservative" Empire under the militaristic views of William I (No Kaiser Fredrick/Liberal Germany loophole here) within the German establishment should me meet an untimely fall/demise; even if its only as a "puppet" of sorts to the King. Failing any direct personalities, I'd also greatly appreciate any direction towards sources of prominent Prussian politicians of the 60's, as well as discussion of potential alternative routes to forging a greater German nation.

Thank you in advance for any advise you have to give.
 
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I think the process of German unification in the 1860s was partially started by the tug-of-war between the conservative monarchy and the liberal House of Representatives. The monarchy, in order to improve its position, resorted to military adventurism (which is a common tactic when domestic politics get a little too heated). After the victory at Königgrätz, the Conservatives effectively won the argument, but I don't really think that was a result of Bismarck's genius. It was more a combination of the existing superiority of the Prussian military along with luck and good timing.

Without Bismarck, Prussia probably would have went to war with Austria anyway. But without Bismarck's skill in diplomacy, it's possible that a general European war could have erupted with French and Russian intervention. Whether Prussia could have survived is anyone's guess IMO.
 
I think the process of German unification in the 1860s was partially started by the tug-of-war between the conservative monarchy and the liberal House of Representatives. The monarchy, in order to improve its position, resorted to military adventurism (which is a common tactic when domestic politics get a little too heated). After the victory at Königgrätz, the Conservatives effectively won the argument, but I don't really think that was a result of Bismarck's genius. It was more a combination of the existing superiority of the Prussian military along with luck and good timing.

Without Bismarck, Prussia probably would have went to war with Austria anyway. But without Bismarck's skill in diplomacy, it's possible that a general European war could have erupted with French and Russian intervention. Whether Prussia could have survived is anyone's guess IMO.

Thank you for the response!

Well, in our timeline William wanted to press Austria harder and extract some territorial concession from her (Bohemia or Austrian Silesia, I believe) for the direct benefit of Prussia, which it took Bismark to talk him out of. In a Bismark-absent scenario, I imagine there's little to stand in his way domesticallly... though the international scene might beg to differ. France, of course, has already pledged secretly not to intervene militarily in exchange for Prussia backing future territorial designs on Belgium... but perhaps a joint powers mediation by Britain, France, and Russia would emerge instead to allow France to sidestep those obligations?
 
If Prussia took Bohemia doesn't that really cripple Austria's industrial ability?

In the long run, yes, though from what I've been reading in my research (for the project mentioned in the OP... if youll indulgd me in shilling the Bismark assasinated timeline) Bohemian industry was still nassicent in the 1860's. The bigger immediate issue would be the prestige hit and rendering Vienna more or less strategically indefensible from the north, which would throw the balance of power into chaos by rendering the Habsburgs a military non-entity and thus drawing in forgein intervention/medieation.
 
In the long run, yes, though from what I've been reading in my research (for the project mentioned in the OP... if youll indulgd me in shilling the Bismark assasinated timeline) Bohemian industry was still nassicent in the 1860's. The bigger immediate issue would be the prestige hit and rendering Vienna more or less strategically indefensible from the north, which would throw the balance of power into chaos by rendering the Habsburgs a military non-entity and thus drawing in forgein intervention/medieation.
So the Habsburg domains become Europe's second sick man officially if the Prussians get Bohemia?
 
So the Habsburg domains become Europe's second sick man officially if the Prussians get Bohemia?

I'm not sure Prussia would be allowed to annex Bohemia. Like the Treaty of San Stefano a decade later, the great powers demonstrate that they'll weigh in to insure an alternate Peace of Prague isent overly putative in its actual implementation even if Austria is compelled to sign. Of course, showing they're willing to sign away the Czechs may very well draw distrust from the various Crownlands as to the security of their traditional rights within the Habsburg state.

However, a lot depends on just how the domestic policy/government in Berlin shifts due to the weaker and different minister-president, which is the factor I'm most interested in.
 
So, after doing a little research on my end if looks like there aren't that many liberals William would assent to in the period of the 66 crisis that I'm looking at. Given that, what do people think of the viability of Manteuffel being called back out of retirement (perhaps seeing it as a chance at redemption for his humiliation at Olmutz and satisfy his honor by out maneuvering Austria and 'redeeming' the Holstein he was forced to sign away)?

Another option would be Von Roon getting called up due to his popularity abroad in hopes he can manage to play the Confederate Diet to Prussian advantage. Of course, this would lead to a major rift with the Landtag, which could lead to legislative gridlock. Still, it opens up the option to strengthen the Autocracy in that case by military moves against the Landtag liberals by the "Hero on Horseback" figure he'd become after a majorly successful campaign.

Maybe one of the Ruhr titans of industry Krupp probably has a Robert or John type youth among his relations who could play the part of a charismatic, economically progressive/industrialist leader to form a political alliance between the Eastern aristocracy and growing power of the Western burghers
 
Without Bismarck, Prussia probably would have went to war with Austria anyway. But without Bismarck's skill in diplomacy, it's possible that a general European war could have erupted with French and Russian intervention. Whether Prussia could have survived is anyone's guess IMO.


Why would Prussia not survive?

If the war spreads, having Russia as an ally will more than compensate for having France as an enemy/
 
Why would Prussia not survive?

If the war spreads, having Russia as an ally will more than compensate for having France as an enemy/

I have to agree on the first point. It's absurd to think Prussia would be dismantled or even cut down for winning. Outside intervention, at best, would likely be to limit the scope of the victory to insure Austria isent too weak to overly disrupt the power balance in central and eastern Europe. We haven't really entered the era where Great Power alliance blocs and rivalries have reached the point where negotiation is a dirty word and governments are willing to face off in a continent wide struggle to the death.

Which makes me question the idea of the war spreading, since that's far more dependent on the personalities in the other Powers rather than simply Prussia.

 
If Prussia took Bohemia doesn't that really cripple Austria's industrial ability?

If they took the entire province yes - which is why the French and Russians would likely oppose any such demand. However, some strips of border territory there and in Moravia/Silesia wouldn't be seen as a big deal except maybe by the defeated Austrians.

The most likely sticking point might be Saxony. Wilhelm I was keen to annex it, but the Tsar would be concerned at the violence to the monarchical principle implied by the dethronement of a "ruler by the grace of God". However this might not be insuperable if King John were compensated with another principality - perhaps Hanoverian land west of the Weser, or the northern block of Hesse-Darmstadt. And if Wilhelm insisted on Saxony he probably wouldn't get Hanover or Hesse-Nassau. though possibly a few old heirlooms like Ostftriesland and/or Ansbach/Beyreuth. He almost certainly still gets S/H though.
 
As it happens, I've been planning a German-focused TL around the same time, and with a similar PoD (Bismarck dying during the Luxembourg Crisis) - some of the most plausible successors, for my money, would be military men like Roon or Wrangel, aristocrats like Adolf zu Hohenlohe-Ingelfingen, or (my TL's choice) Edwin von Manteuffel, the nephew of Otto. All of these choices, however, would to a greater or lesser degree reflect a shift of power back towards the Reichstag or the monarch - there weren't really any options with Bismarck's unique approach to governance.
 
As it happens, I've been planning a German-focused TL around the same time, and with a similar PoD (Bismarck dying during the Luxembourg Crisis) - some of the most plausible successors, for my money, would be military men like Roon or Wrangel, aristocrats like Adolf zu Hohenlohe-Ingelfingen, or (my TL's choice) Edwin von Manteuffel, the nephew of Otto. All of these choices, however, would to a greater or lesser degree reflect a shift of power back towards the Reichstag or the monarch - there weren't really any options with Bismarck's unique approach to governance.

Well, it certainly wouldn't be interesting if the new M-P was just a Bismark clone. Roon is certainly a viable option from the King's perspective, though I wonder how the Lantag would react to such an appointment. Bismark, being a political nobody when he was given the position, looked non-threatening enough during the budget crisis for his "continuous budget" ploy to keep the Conservative policy running to make that power grab... ,but Roon has quite a bit of political baggage. Would he have to pull off his suggested self-coup in order to make things run?
 
Why would Prussia not survive?

If the war spreads, having Russia as an ally will more than compensate for having France as an enemy/

I have to agree on the first point. It's absurd to think Prussia would be dismantled or even cut down for winning. Outside intervention, at best, would likely be to limit the scope of the victory to insure Austria isent too weak to overly disrupt the power balance in central and eastern Europe. We haven't really entered the era where Great Power alliance blocs and rivalries have reached the point where negotiation is a dirty word and governments are willing to face off in a continent wide struggle to the death.

Which makes me question the idea of the war spreading, since that's far more dependent on the personalities in the other Powers rather than simply Prussia.
I should clarify what I originally posted. I personally believe Bismarck's influence was a best-case scenario for Germany, and they still ended up on the losing side in the long run. Without Bismarck, I believe Prussia would have sought a greater victory against Austria. Since France was on the edge of intervention IOTL, I think it's very possible that France would have intervened in this scenario. Perhaps there might have been a conference to salvage some sort of balance in Europe, but would it have happened after France occupies the Rhineland, or before? I personally wonder if Prussia's situation could possibly be any better than it was historically: weaker Austria, greater French influence in the Rhineland, etc.
 
Well, it certainly wouldn't be interesting if the new M-P was just a Bismark clone. Roon is certainly a viable option from the King's perspective, though I wonder how the Lantag would react to such an appointment. Bismark, being a political nobody when he was given the position, looked non-threatening enough during the budget crisis for his "continuous budget" ploy to keep the Conservative policy running to make that power grab... ,but Roon has quite a bit of political baggage. Would he have to pull off his suggested self-coup in order to make things run?
Quite possibly - I guess it sort of depends on when we're talking about here. If Bismarck dies after the successful conclusion of the Austro-Prussian War, then Roon is much more popular (for helping to engineer the victory), and the Landtag would be likely to be a bit more quiescent. Before war with Austria, though, the King may well have been forced to choose a more liberal pick to avert another constitutional crisis, which Roon certainly wouldn't fit the bill for.
 
Quite possibly - I guess it sort of depends on when we're talking about here. If Bismarck dies after the successful conclusion of the Austro-Prussian War, then Roon is much more popular (for helping to engineer the victory), and the Landtag would be likely to be a bit more quiescent. Before war with Austria, though, the King may well have been forced to choose a more liberal pick to avert another constitutional crisis, which Roon certainly wouldn't fit the bill for.

I was thinking pre-War, while the Confederation Diet is still trying to handle affairs. Specifically because there was an actual assassination attempt on him at the time by one Ferdinand Cohen-Blind, which failed because Bismark was wearing a thicker buffcoat that helped cushion the shots. May 7th, if you want the exact date. I suppose alot depends on just how much Wilhelm wants to try playing chicken with the National Liberals; he needs a stable domestic front to push a hard-line forgein policy, but picking too liberal a M-P not only limits him on that front as well but runs the risk of having to surrender more power to the legislature, which he wasen't keen to do. Would it be possible to pull Manteuffel out of retirement? He very well could be willing to play hardball with Austria while still being moderate enough and distinct enough from the military as to not cause a panic among the liberals.
 
I should clarify what I originally posted. I personally believe Bismarck's influence was a best-case scenario for Germany, and they still ended up on the losing side in the long run. Without Bismarck, I believe Prussia would have sought a greater victory against Austria. Since France was on the edge of intervention IOTL, I think it's very possible that France would have intervened in this scenario. Perhaps there might have been a conference to salvage some sort of balance in Europe, but would it have happened after France occupies the Rhineland, or before? I personally wonder if Prussia's situation could possibly be any better than it was historically: weaker Austria, greater French influence in the Rhineland, etc.

Ah, in that case we can agree pretty well. As for the speed of a potentianl conferance/mediation, I think alot depends on just how quick on their feet and how forceful Russia and Britain are on the issue. The Russians, if I recall correctly, are diplomatically isolated and have some sympathy towards Prussia for her offer of assistance in putting down the Poles and is still smarting from Austria's betrayal in the Crimean War, though I'm far less well-versed in Britain during the 60's. France, though, already promised not to interfere on Austria's side in exchange for Prussian support in her designs on the Low Counteries, so is Nappy III really going to be so quick to march into the Rhineland?

Still, it certainly extends the war at minimum. This certainly affects the Italian front (Which now has time to develop, potentially leading to Italy getting victories or getting humiliated) as well the potential future of Bohemian-Moravian nationalism if the campaigning in the area results in the rise of some national myth moments.
 
France, though, already promised not to interfere on Austria's side in exchange for Prussian support in her designs on the Low Counteries, so is Nappy III really going to be so quick to march into the Rhineland?
He is so bravado would try...and fail and activated the secret treaty prussia have with russia at the time(a prototype of the insurance) now prussia got attacked a third power
 
I was thinking pre-War, while the Confederation Diet is still trying to handle affairs. Specifically because there was an actual assassination attempt on him at the time by one Ferdinand Cohen-Blind, which failed because Bismark was wearing a thicker buffcoat that helped cushion the shots. May 7th, if you want the exact date. I suppose alot depends on just how much Wilhelm wants to try playing chicken with the National Liberals; he needs a stable domestic front to push a hard-line forgein policy, but picking too liberal a M-P not only limits him on that front as well but runs the risk of having to surrender more power to the legislature, which he wasen't keen to do. Would it be possible to pull Manteuffel out of retirement? He very well could be willing to play hardball with Austria while still being moderate enough and distinct enough from the military as to not cause a panic among the liberals.
Recalling Manteuffel would certainly be possible - he was still participating in politics as a member of the Herrenhaus - but I'm not sure how far the liberals would accept this. On the one hand, he was clearly a civilian politician (unlike Roon or his cousin Edwin von Manteuffel), and his administration had seen some more liberal reforms regarding censorship and the economy. On the other hand, he was still seen as something of a reactionary by many, and in the increasingly polarised situation of Prussian domestic politics in 1866, he'd probably be unlikely to make any major concessions. As for his foreign policy, he may well be inclined to take a firm stance on Austria, but it's worth remembering - as his opponents would no doubt point out - that he was one of the main figures behind the Capitulation of Olmütz. Then again, though, he's probably one of the only reasonable options for Wilhelm at this stage - unless he recalls someone different, and brings in Karl Anton von Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen, who has his own pros and cons.
 
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