Bismarck's Folly: A Prussian TL

"Diplomacy without arms is like a concert without a score." - Frederick II the Great

March, 1866: Prussia and Austria, the two most dominant German states as well as long time rivals, start to dispute over the settling of the duchies of Schleswig and Holstein. Earlier, when Prussia and Austria gained control of these duchies, it was agreed that Austria would control Holstein while Prussia controlled Schleswig. Otto von Bismarck, the Minister President of Prussia, announces that Austria has betrayed the agreement. Emperor Franz Joseph of Austria decides to take the matter to the Federal Diet - which breaks the deal that the two nations made, as they agreed to leave the German Federation out of it. King Wilhelm I is said to have had tears in his eyes at this betrayal of good faith. He begins to align himself with Bismarck's goals.

At the Diet, the feud climaxes beyond two duchies. Bismarck calls for a reorganization of the entire Federation and it's conduct.

April, 1866: In the past Bismarck had made a war alliance against Austria with the Kingdom of Italy, and now that alliance was falling apart. Franz Joseph had gotten wind of the Italian plans, and now was determined to keep their southern neighbor neutral. In order to do that, Austria promises to give Italy the province of Venetia, something the Italians had wanted to steal from the Empire for quite some time. While King Emmanuel continues to promise to aid Prussia, secretly negotiations begin with Austria.

May, 1866: The Neutral Powers (Russia, France and England) jointly call for a conference with Italy, Prussia and Austria and begin talks with both parties. Privately the Emperor of France prepares to join Prussia against Austria, as long as they get Rhenish land afterwards; Bismarck dodges the demand. Emperor Franz of Austria accepts the congress on the grounds that the balance of power is not changed, and in the end refuses to join. Austria takes the matter of the two duchies to the Federal Diet. Prussia declares that the agreement of the duchies is null and void, and invades Holstein. Austrian troops withdraw and retreat into Hanover.

June, 1866: All diplomatic relations between Austria and Prussia are broken off. Bismarck announces to the other northern German states that they must stop raising their armies, and accept Prussia's reforms of the Federation. When he is denied, Prussian armies are mobilized and invade the territories. The war officially begins; on the Prussian side are the petty northern states; most of the Federation joins on the Austrian side. Prussia begins invading the states that did not join; Hesse-Camel and Saxony are full on victories. However, the farther south they come, the harder the battles are. The Austrian army, having made a deal with the Italians over Venetia, are unhindered and fully capable to march north; Prussian luck and morale begins to falter.

July, 1866: While Prussia had a strong start in June, the war quickly goes sour for them in July. Saxony, Hesse-Camel, Hanover are all liberated by Austria. Silesia is occupied by Austrian troops, and Weimar (one of Prussia's allies) surrenders. King Wilheim is said to have berated Bismarck, blaming him for underestimating the Austrians. On July 1st, he writes to the Emperor, asking him for peace, although the letter is intercepted by Bismarck and thrown into the fire. The war continues, and the Prussian army begins to fall back, defending Brandenburg and Posen. Within a week, Berlin is overran by the Austrian, and Wilheim surrenders. The Emperor of Austria claims victory, and Austria's dominance of the German states is solidified.

August, 1866: The Federal Diet assembles, in order to decide how best to punish Prussia. Their conquests in Saxony and Hesse-Camel are snatched away, as well as Schelswig and Holstein. Austria takes Brandenburg as their main prize, and the Prussian government is kicked out of Berlin. King Wilheim does not protest; he is humbled. The royal family moves back to Konigsberg, which is re-established as the Prussian capital. The provinces of Pomerania, Posen, and Silesia are left in Prussian hands. As for Bismarck, King Wilheim manages to shift the blame of the war to him - he becomes known as the con man who manipulated the King. Franz Joseph publicly accepts this, although it is said his hatred for the Hohenzollern family was only matched by his want of stability. Bismarck is charged with treason, and executed in Berlin publicly. The Prussian goal of dominating Germany dies, and the Hohenzollerns isolate their Kingdom from the rest of Germany. Not that they had much of a choice, of course; their main punishment for the war was the denial of their right to join the German Federation. Bismarck's dream of a Prussian Germany died, and Austrian influence over Germany did not falter. It is said this action saved Prussia, however, as they escaped the great war over the Rhineland with France that was to come.
 
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"Diplomacy without arms is like a concert without a score." - Frederick II the Great

March, 1866: Prussia and Austria, the two most dominant German states as well as long time rivals, start to dispute over the settling of the duchies of Schleswig and Holstein. Earlier, when Prussia and Austria gained control of these duchies, it was agreed that Austria would control Holstein while Prussia controlled Schleswig. Otto von Bismarck, the Minister President of Prussia, announces that Austria has betrayed the agreement. Emperor Franz Joseph of Austria decides to take the matter to the Federal Diet - which breaks the deal that the two nations made, as they agreed to leave the German Federation out of it. King Wilhelm I is said to have had tears in his eyes at this betrayal of good faith. He begins to align himself with Bismarck's goals.

At the Diet, the feud climaxes beyond two duchies. Bismarck calls for a reorganization of the entire Federation and it's conduct.

April, 1866: In the past Bismarck had made a war alliance against Austria with the Kingdom of Italy, and now that alliance was falling apart. Franz Joseph had gotten wind of the Italian plans, and now was determined to keep their southern neighbor neutral. In order to do that, Austria promises to give Italy the province of Venetia, something the Italians had wanted to steal from the Empire for quite some time. While King Emmanuel continues to promise to aid Prussia, secretly negotiations begin with Austria.

May, 1866: The Neutral Powers (Russia, France and England) jointly call for a conference with Italy, Prussia and Austria and begin talks with both parties. Privately the Emperor of France prepares to join Prussia against Austria, as long as they get Rhenish land afterwards; Bismarck dodges the demand. Emperor Franz of Austria accepts the congress on the grounds that the balance of power is not changed, and in the end refuses to join. Austria takes the matter of the two duchies to the Federal Diet. Prussia declares that the agreement of the duchies is null and void, and invades Holstein. Austrian troops withdraw and retreat into Hanover.

June, 1866: All diplomatic relations between Austria and Prussia are broken off. Bismarck announces to the other northern German states that they must stop raising their armies, and accept Prussia's reforms of the Federation. When he is denied, Prussian armies are mobilized and invade the territories. The war officially begins; on the Prussian side are the petty northern states; most of the Federation joins on the Austrian side. Prussia begins invading the states that did not join; Hesse-Camel and Saxony are full on victories. However, the farther south they come, the harder the battles are. The Austrian army, having made a deal with the Italians over Venetia, are unhindered and fully capable to march north; Prussian luck and morale begins to falter.

July, 1866: While Prussia had a strong start in June, the war quickly goes sour for them in July. Saxony, Hesse-Camel, Hanover are all liberated by Austria. Silesia is occupied by Austrian troops, and Weimar (one of Prussia's allies) surrenders. King Wilheim is said to have berated Bismarck, blaming him for underestimating the Austrians. On July 1st, he writes to the Emperor, asking him for peace, although the letter is intercepted by Bismarck and thrown into the fire. The war continues, and the Prussian army begins to fall back, defending Brandenburg and Posen. Within a week, Berlin is overran by the Austrian, and Wilheim surrenders. The Emperor of Austria claims victory, and Austria's dominance of the German states is solidified.

August, 1866: The Federal Diet assembles, in order to decide how best to punish Prussia. Their conquests in Saxony and Hesse-Camel are snatched away, as well as Schelswig and Holstein. Austria takes Brandenburg as their main prize, and the Prussian government is kicked out of Berlin. King Wilheim does not protest; he is humbled. The royal family moves back to Konigsberg, which is re-established as the Prussian capital. The provinces of Pomerania, Posen, and Silesia are left in Prussian hands. As for Bismarck, King Wilheim manages to shift the blame of the war to him - he becomes known as the con man who manipulated the King. Franz Joseph publicly accepts this, although it is said his hatred for the Hohenzollern family was only matched by his want of stability. Bismarck is charged with treason, and executed in Berlin publicly. The Prussian goal of dominating Germany dies, and the Hohenzollerns isolate their Kingdom from the rest of Germany. Not that they had much of a choice, of course; their main punishment for the war was the denial of their right to join the German Federation. Bismarck's dream of a Prussian Germany died, and Austrian influence over Germany did not falter. It is said this action saved Prussia, however, as they escaped the great war over the Rhineland with France that was to come.



Up to and including June, your TL is certainly possible and interesting, even if a bit of polishing would help. (BTW; it's Hesse-Cassel. Hesse-Camel is silly.)
But then it quickly becomes difficult to believe: Austria had neither the logistics nor the war plans to enter Northern Germany to liberate Hannover or Hesse and Nassau, and certainly not inbthe first weeks.

I do not see what the Prussian strategy is. What happened to the push into Bohemia? A stronger Austria might be able to stop the Prussians there, but this reads as if "Königgrätz" was never attempted at all.

And the PoD seems to be that FJ accepts the Italian offer to buy Venetia instead of getting all insulted. Fine, but that does nothing to help with the Austrian problem with mobilization, which would still be much slower and more complicatzed than Prussia's.

Bismarck intercepts an official letter by his king and destroys it. I hope he diabolically twirled his moustache while doing so. Seriously, why on earth should he do this? Inter-monarchical correspondence is not exactly prone to vanishing by random chance. Someone will investigate.

The Silesian armies, having done nothing yet, cannot fall back and prevent the Austrian conquest of Berlin. That is an extraordinary claim and I would like to see your reasoning in more detail please.

But assuming that the Prussian military does party like it's 1806 and gets completely defeated, the August chapter is insane. The only way that might happen if you had a full-on republican revolution in Berlin, a 1848 replay led by the already unhappy Landtag; then the king fleeing to Königsberg might be possible.
But Austria annexing Brandenburg with Berlin? Nope.
While Prussia, defeated by Austria, keeps Silesia? That is as historically plausible as France in 1918+ annexing Württemberg but leaving Alsace-Lorraine with Germany.

BTW, we had just recently a thread why "Königsberg as the old capital of the Hohenzollern domains" is wrong.
 
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