Bismarck removed during 7 Weeks War

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Bismarck was the architect of the war with Austria (and many smaller
German states) in 1866. He pulled a reluctant monarch into the war.
Once the victory of Sadowa occurred he reversed positions, urging
restraint, while the monarch and military wanted to march on to Vienna.

What if he is removed by a fatal stroke, heart attack, cannon-ball or
horse accident once the war of 1866 is in progress.


So, if Bismarck isn't there to restrain the "March on Vienna" what type
of terms is Prussia likely to impose of Austria? Who's ruling the
various territories of the Habsburg domain by 1868? Would the Prussian
terms later be regretted by Prussia, or later be manageable? Would
there be time or inclination for other powers to get involved?


Background note: Bismarck himself, while ultimately urging a
non-Carthaginian peace with Austria, had developed ties to Hungarian
and south Slav nationalists, to be used as a card if the war didn't go
well. In OTL he never had a need to use them
 
First things first: Prussia will annex pretty much all of the territory it will have got by 1871 (minus Alsace-Lorraine). Italy will get more of Austria, maybe South Tyrol.

At best, Austria will still be forced into an exclusion from Germanic affairs. But lose little. Bohemia, maybe? Part of Croatia goes to Italy?

Maybe France or Russia will intervene. At the very worst, Prussia will annex the Austrian part of what will later by Austria-Hungary.
 

Susano

Banned
Well, yes, its possible that Bohemia, as the Habsburg territory directly borderin Prussian territory, falls to Prussia. But on the reverse, Prussia wouldnt outright annex entire states like it did IOTL - that was seen as outrageous, and it took Bismarck's ruthlessness, and the fact that nothing was taken from Austria, to do so.

What about Napoleon III., though? Could he intervene, as he had planned to? That seems to have been Bismarcks main reason for wanting a quick peace, so that Napoleon couldnt move. Would France move now?
 
Well, yes, its possible that Bohemia, as the Habsburg territory directly borderin Prussian territory, falls to Prussia. But on the reverse, Prussia wouldnt outright annex entire states like it did IOTL - that was seen as outrageous, and it took Bismarck's ruthlessness, and the fact that nothing was taken from Austria, to do so.


Hanover, Nassau, Schleswig-Holstein? Ring a bell?

BTW, I chose Bohemia only since it was IIRC, the closest territory to Prussia at that time.
 
Since Saxony allied with Austria in that war, maybe Prussia annexes it entirely, in addition to Hannover and etc. due to Prussia's totally crushing victory?
 

Susano

Banned
Yes, indeed. All those states annexed IOTL. But that was pretty much a break of... internatioanl etziqutte, so to say. Bismarck pushed it forwards because he didnt expect territorial cocnessions from Austria. Without that Im sure there wouldnt be those outright annexations. Of course, the countries would lose territory to Prussia, but not their independance.
 
Well, pre-Bismarck, Prussia was trying to get all of Saxony annexed. In the Congress of Vienna, Prussian diplomats tried that. They even made secret alliances with the Russians which almost led to war between the coalition's members. If Prussia wins with a resounding victory in this war, even with Bismarck KIA, I'm sure some diplomat guy will have the cajones to push for a full annexation of the nearby enemies of Prussia, such as Hanover and Nassau, and maybe even Saxony.
 
I think that if Prussia had demanded such harsh terms , Austria might have fought on and might have achieved a stalemate. At the battle of Konigratz , the Austrians suffered 43,000 casualties ( out of 250,000 ) and the Prussians 9,000 out of 256,000.

But after the victory over the Italians at Custozza , the Austrians could have sent the 3 army corps to the north to link with fieldmarschal Benedek's forces ( which were defeated at Konigratz ) . This forces could have been commanded by archduke Albert , the victor of Custozza , who was more competent than Benedek. The Prussians would have had to decisively defeat these forces in order to be able to impose harsh peace terms .

The Prussian rifle had a higher rate of fire but the Austrian one had a longer range. The Austrian artilery was better than the Prussian one. The two armies would have been roughly equal in numbers and the Austrians would have had a better commander than the one they had at Koniggratz. A crushing Prussian victory in these circumstances seems rather hard to achieve.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Saxony never was annexed by Prussia, but lost a large part of its territory after the Napoleonic wars. AFAIK Saxony kept the good bites though (around Dresden and Leipzig).

Prussia going for an all out war against Austria will probably have Prussia overstretch herself. The Austrian Army is still intact and in the field, most of the "2nd Rate" German states like Saxony, Bavaria, Hanover and Würtemberg are Austrian allies and the Slavs in the Habsburg Empire are by no means pro-Prussian (as Gladi has often pointed out).

Then there are all the other potential enemies of Germany, first France and Denmark, but next neither Russia nor UK are probably interested in a Prussia going amok in Europe. In OTL the Germans under Bismarck with very fine intuition went to the limit of what the others would accept, and to a large degree was aided by her opponent's diplomatic incompetence (like Denmark in 1864 and France in 1870), but in this ATL it is the Prussians stepping on everybody's blue suede shoes.

The Prussians can probably count on the Italians and perhaps the Hungarians, but like we know today that will not necessarily be much of a help.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
The new Prussian government might become too greedy. They could demand the Palatinate and parts of Franconia from Bavaria, and Bohemia from Austria... France might join the war on Austria's side, Russia might help Prussia in return, and we get WW1 50 years earlier.
 
I'm going with the naysayers here....

Prussia in OTL got the Limit of what she could expect. Any scenario where they go for the all out win and they overstretch themselves, bog down trying to eliminate the Hapsburgs as rivals and allow other players to get involved. If it looks like Austria is going to go down to defeat with greivous terms and annexations, France will act to preserve Austria's allies in Germany so that Prussian Dominance does not dominate all of a Greater Germany.

The Austrians are by no means defeated. They retreated in good order and can take up favourable defensive positions if need be in Bohemia where they still have the support of the Czechs ( they have no interest in the Greater Germany remember) The defense is going to favour the Austrians with longer range guns and better artillery. The forces in Italy will be recalled to bolster the defense...this could allow the Italians an opening to retake Venetia (whether they take it or not is another matter.

I would guess that the Prussian offensive boggs down to a stalemate in Bohemia and eventual withdrawal...Italy and Austria sign a separate peace giving Venetia to Italy and allows the Austrians to concentrate on the Prussians while their German allies ( which is basically every major German state at this point, regroup)

net effect...return to the Status quo in Germany, loss of Venetia to Italy but thats it for the Austrians. No Dual Alliance obviously in the aftermath. Austria will align with France or Russia or both under different sets of circumstances to contain Prussian militarism. Germany remains for a time yet a confederation of several states/kingdoms/principalities and duchies. all suspicious now of Prussian motivation and bolstering the role and influence of the Hapsburgs within the confederation. French influence could also increase in bordering principalities and states.
 
France 1866

Napoleon III had not expected a Prussian victory, he had made no preparations for a conflict with Prussia in 1866, as he expected the Austro Prussian conflict to drag on, possibly well into 1867. The French Army was scattered across many territories, there being only 100,000 troops available to intervene against Prussia. The French army was also short of ammunition and other supplies at this time.

France also had to consider that the newly emerged Italy might intervene against France.

Bismarck may not have realised just how unprepared the French army was at this time.

Britain was quite happy to see a stronger Prussia counter the power of it's traditional enemy - France.

Russia with one eye on the Ottoman's and another on the South Slavs, may well have been enticed into a broad settlement of the Austrian question, by recieving Galicia. Likewise Italy was an obvious candidate to be drawn into a Prussian led division of Austria.

Britain may well have baulked at this, had it come about, but it is difficult to see what she could have done. if, Prussia, Russia and Italy divided Austria - with Hungary becoming independent. the Ottoman's would have been of no help to Britain, who's only alternative would have been to encourage and join France in intervening. But who then assists Britain in guaranteeing Belgian independence from France. One of Britains primary strategic concerns.

So i see a situation wherein Prussia pretty much has a free hand to destroy and annex much of Austria. Perhaps a unique opportunity was missed.
 
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