Bismarck Dies

Hey, I'm new round here :p (although I've been lurking for a while).

I'm thinking of a TL where Bismarck is assassinated soon after the October 1863 elections in Prussia by a conspiracy of discontented Progress Party politicians -- what would the immediate ramifications be? How soon would Germany unite (would it?)? I'll think some more on it in a bit, but I thought I'd throw it out there for any suggestions.

EDIT: Posted in wrong forum ... can someone please move? >_>
 
I'm not quite sure of the effects on the 1866 war, or the settlement treaties.

If there are no effects there, it likely would be a huge one in 1870, provided everything comes without major butterflies. Without I doubt the Elms Telegraph would have been sent. Without that, France won't declare war; Which means that, even if Prussia attacks ( why? ), it will do so against International ( = british ) opinion and without the support of the south german states ( as the defence treaties cannot be invoked ). This means no coronation of Wilhelm as german Kaiser in Versailles. From there, butterflies are whale-sized at least.
 

Redbeard

Banned
October 1863 is an interesting time, as the Constitution annexing Slesvig into the Kingdom of Denmark was from November 1863. This constitution was a violation of the 1852 London agreement and lead to OTL war of 1864, where Prussia, Austria and a number of smaller German states defeated Denmark and eventually annexed all of Slesvig-Holsten and Lauenburg (previously ruled by the King of Denmark, as Duke in the German Federation) into Prussia.

The Danish diplomacy and strategy in this war was extremely stupid (expecting to beat anything entire Germany/Austria could send, even after all military hope was lost!), and even a mediocre follower of Bismarck ought to be able to exploit the situation. If the general chaos following the death of Bismarck however has the campaign start a month or two leter than in OTL (not that unlikely), then the initial Danish position at Dannevirke in S. Slesvig might actually have some tactical value. In OTL heavy frost in Feburary made the Dannevirke position a liability, as it could be by-passed over the frosen fiord and swamps at Slien/Slesvig City.

Although the Dannevirke fortifications are today often ridiculed, they were much better prepared than the primitive ramparts of Dybbøl (Düppel), and if the Germans do not break through immediately, the international mediation and negotiations of spring 1864 will be interesting, especially if there is no Bismarck level type on German side to pull the strings.

In OTL the Danish insisting on a border at the Ejder river (separating Slesvig from Holsten) was hopeless with the Germans occupying all Jutland, but might not be that much off in this ATL without a German breakthrough. In OTL a British mediation proposal from 28th of May 1864 actually came very close to the Ejder line (but was refused by the Danes).

Seen from Prussian perspective a border at Ejder would be a big camel to swallow, and I guess we could see a breakdown of negotiations and renewal of combat. In this ATL however it would be the Germans that would be seen as stubborn, and only a clear and decisive victory over the Danish Army at Dannevirke would work. That could certainly happen, the Prussian had some superior rifled artillery, but we could also see some futile and bloody storming of field fortifications like was seen in the contemporary Amerian Civil war and the coming decades of warfare.

With anything but a decisive victory over the Danish Army the Prussian position from 1864 and on will be very difficult - Bismarck or not. Prussia now isn't the hero succesfully fighting the German cause, but rather some stupid Junckers sacrificing German blood and still only getting outwitted by the international society and their intolerably arrogant Danish proxies.

We could still have Prussia defeating Austria and then France, and some kind of Second Reich emerge, but without Bismarck to run internal affairs, I guess we would have the chance/risk increased of a socialist revolution in Germany as Marx and Engels predicted it.

Anyway, if Bismarck leaving the scene in 1863 means the same as it did in 1890, i.e. German/Prussian diplomacy creating enemies rather than neutralising them, then some international coalition against Germany probably would emerge much before 1914.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 

Susano

Banned
Of course, theres no reason why Bismarcks death a single year before the start of the war should butterfly Danish diplomacy! I think we can expect Denmakr to act as stupid as IOTL.

However, its not assured that Prusisa will enter the war. If Bismarck's death leaves a sufficiently large political vacuum, it spossible Prussia and Austria (which only joined in to not let get Prussia all teh spols, and mroe importantly, all the glory) will just sit back and let the smaller states wage war. IOTL, actually Saxony and Hannover were first on the field. Then Denmark has more of a chance, but I still dont think it would win. However, there would be a change as Saxony's and Hannover's goal was the creation of an independant Duchy inside the German Cofnederation (which hence would be extended to Schleswig) under the line Oldenburg-Gottorp-Sonderburg-Augustenburg. As this in itself is a much weaker position than the annexionist plans of Prussia (as said, Austria merely tagged along), the British might even agree with it.

And mind, even if not - I dont think the British would have much impact if teh war even if they entered it. Neither Prussia nro Austria woudl allow that, thus drawing them into the war, and it was primarily a land war. The naval power Great Britain would have stood no chance against the land powers Prussia and Austria. And funny and ironic as a war between Great Britain and Hannover would be, I dont think there was much chance of British intervention in the first place.

Oh, and also, "German/Austrian" is anachronistic ;)
 
Thanks for the comments. :)

My initial idea at the moment, just thinking of the very start of the ATL, before even the run-up to the Second War of Schleswig, is that Wilhelm appoints Albrecht von Roon as Prime Minister, much to the discontent of the House of Deputies--he is, after all, afraid of having a Liberal ministry, and von Roon is an important reliable Bismarck supporter (the other obvious contender I think is Helmuth von Molke, but of the two von Roon seems the more obvious).

Obviously this exacerbates the schism between the House and the King/Prime Minister, and Roon will likely drop his position of Minister of War, and give that to Edwin von Manteuffel, one of his supporters in the army. Von Molke's influence and power would equally grow, and I can see him being controlling Manteuffel behind the scenes--generally I envisage a Roon-Molke biumvirate, with the greater of the two obviously being Roon.

As to the War of Schleswig itself, I haven't yet had the time to give it much thought--my current idea is that Roon decides to go in head first, riding on the tide of general Prussian opinion and kicking off the war perhaps a month earlier than OTL.

I doubt that Austria would rush to Roon's support, and international opinion would certainly be firmly against him (especially British). However, as Susano pointed out, Austria doesn't want Prussia to get all the spoils, and will join in merely to prevent this.

As I said, I haven't had much time to think properly yet, but what do you think?
 

Susano

Banned
Hm, Roon. I admit not knowing much about him. But by the time of the PoD the course had already been set: Bismarck was adamant about supressing the parliamentary opposition, and also had started to assiociate with the nationalist movement.

Roon will have no other chance than to try to turn attention away from domestic problems by having diplomatic and military victories - same as Bismarck tried. Thus, Prussia (and hence Austria) might enter the war as IOTL, and hence it would also go more or less as per IOTL.

But afterwards... Bismarck had a specifically anti-Austrian bent in his conception of foreign policy. Roon was a political charge of Bismarkc, more or less, but I dont know wether he had that, too. He was foremost a military man, so who knows wether he had any grand cocneptions in foreign policy at all! So, might well be Prussia does not provoke Austria and the German Confederation into the (OTL) German War of 1866. However, the situation in Schleswig-Holstein is simply unstable: Prussian Schleswig, Prussian Lauenburg, Austrian Holstein (an exclave with absolutely no value for it!) and Prussian marching rights through Holstein. Its a receipt for cofnlict, and IOTL: its just that Bismarck sought, after all. However, even sans Bismarck the Duchies will most likely be split between Prussia and Austria, and, yes, its unstable.

As it is, Austria tried to reform the Ger,man Cofnederation anyways, at that time, so as part of that it might turn over Holstein to Augustenburg as independant Duchy, and that could well provoke Prussia... though that would at elast delay the war, and in 1867 theres the Luxemburg Crisis. However, a longer standoff between Prussia nor Austria means neither side can afford alienating the nationalist elements in Germany, espeicalyl after Bismarkc already had begun to try to associate with them. Hence, both Austria's and Prussiia's reatcion to that could be quite strong, and with both great powers agreeing, the German Confederation could act as a whole, and even try to provoke France into war over the whole affair....
 
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