Titus_Pullo
Banned
I think German unification was inevitable but without Bisnarck would it be delayed?
Bismarck dies at infancy: Effect on German unification?
- Thread starter Titus_Pullo
- Start date
Hypothesis: without Bismarck, Wilhelm I might abdicate in 1862, so his comparatively liberal son Friedrich reigns for 26 years (or even longer) instead of 99 days. His choice of Ministerpräsidenten closes the gap between conservative Prussia and the more liberal Southern kingdoms.
The Customs Union develops into a closer-knit confederation (->compare OTL 1868 Zollparlament) usurping matters formerly resolved by the "Deutsche Bund". Austria remains member of the latter, being curiously "one feet within, one feet without" a wondrous hybrid Germany.
By the time of Friedrich's death, Germany has continously transformed into a unified state with a Reichstag (equal universal male suffrage) in Frankfurt, a government headed by the Reichskanzler (elected by the Reichstag, confirmed by the Reichsrat), even less or no colonies.
Probably there will still have been a Danish war, so Schleswig-Holstein will be a sovereign member (not part of Prussia), Elsaß (-Lothringen?) depends a lot on butterflies, but would however not be under prolonged military occupation, but also a federal state within the union way earlier if annexed (-> in that situation my guess would be that German occupiers in case of a victorious war against France encourage Alsatians to secede who almost immediately join the German Confederation/Union as a member state).
The Customs Union develops into a closer-knit confederation (->compare OTL 1868 Zollparlament) usurping matters formerly resolved by the "Deutsche Bund". Austria remains member of the latter, being curiously "one feet within, one feet without" a wondrous hybrid Germany.
By the time of Friedrich's death, Germany has continously transformed into a unified state with a Reichstag (equal universal male suffrage) in Frankfurt, a government headed by the Reichskanzler (elected by the Reichstag, confirmed by the Reichsrat), even less or no colonies.
Probably there will still have been a Danish war, so Schleswig-Holstein will be a sovereign member (not part of Prussia), Elsaß (-Lothringen?) depends a lot on butterflies, but would however not be under prolonged military occupation, but also a federal state within the union way earlier if annexed (-> in that situation my guess would be that German occupiers in case of a victorious war against France encourage Alsatians to secede who almost immediately join the German Confederation/Union as a member state).
Problem is that Friedrich was firmly opposed to ascending the throne in this way. The only thing that made him even consider it was the fear that Bismarck might be appointed, and when his father assured him (falsely) that this was not contemplated, he firmly declined to countersign the abdication. Clearly, if Bismarck doesn't exist, he will be even less likely to accept.
Most likely, the deadlock drags on through 1863, which gives two interesting possibilities. One is that in August Wilhelm will agree to go to Frankfurt, and sign up to a deal making Franz Josef Emperor of Germany (though a looser Empire than OTLs, with Prussia enjoying broad autonomy). Alternatively, if this falls through, so that matters are still deadlocked when the Schleswig-Holstein issue arises, Wilhelm will probably embrace the cause of the Duke of Augustenberg. A war for the German national cause will gve his popularity an immense boost, and he probably gets his way about the three-year service. So he gets what Bismarck gave him, but without Bismarck.
What happens after that is harder to say, but I'd bet on Franz Josef to eventually make some blunder that leads to war.