Unlikely since they would be violating there own treaty, since Germany could build up 35% of commonwealth tonnage.By most accounts the commonwealth total was ....[35%]
500,000t BB [175,000]
135,000 CV [47,250]
146,800 CA [51,380]
192,200 CL [ 67,270]
TOTAL KM Build [340,900 tons]
The build plan would be in 3 waves of about eight warships each with first wave commissioned in 1937 , followed by a second wave commissioned two years later and a follow on wave of 8 warships commissioned in 1940/41.
First wave would be eight Panzer Kreuzers each 10,773t standard 1937
Second wave would be eight Panzerschiffe each 14,695t standard 1939
Third wave would be eight heavier Panzerschiffe each 19,621t standard 1941
BB quota exceeded some time in 1939, BB& CA quota would not be exceeded until late 1940, The BB& CA & CL quota mid 1941.
It would never have threatened rearmament since war would have broken out long before their quota would be violated.
How would that work? Total KM build, as others had tried telling you, would be, according to your numbers, 175,000 tons of ships, no single one can exceed 35,000 tons, and the AGNA specified that the First London and Washington treaties applied, so any ship over 10,000 tons and/or having gun caliber over 8.0 inches was a battleship. Max, going off "10,000" and 11" guns, gives 17.5 ships under the battleship tonnage. although the AGNA was signed 18 June 1935, but the Second London Naval Conference started 9 Dec 1935, signed March 25 1936. Germany didn't sign it, but indicated it would abide by the treaty. That treaty has this:
Article 4
(1) No capital ship shall exceed 35,000 tons (35,560 metric tons) standard displacement.
(2) No capital ship shall carry a gun with a calibre exceeding 14 in. (356 mm.); provided however that if any of the Parties to the Treaty for the Limitation of Naval Armament signed at Washington on 6 February 1922, should fail to enter into an agreement to conform to this provision prior to the date of the coming into force of the present Treaty, but in any case not later than 1 April 1937, the maximum calibre of gun carried by capital ships shall be 16 in. (406 mm.).
(3) No capital ship of sub-category (a), the standard displacement of which is less than 17,500 tons (17,780 metric tons), shall be laid down or acquired prior to 1 January 1943.
(4) No capital ship, the main armament of which consists of guns of less than 10 in. (254 mm.) calibre, shall be laid down or acquired prior to 1 January 1943.
That means no ships can be built between 10,000 tons to 17,500 tons, nor have gun calibers between 8 to 10 inches. So unless Germany wants to completely throw away the goodwill generated by the AGNA, they can only build 17,500 ton ships with 10" or larger, to 16 inches. Hitler "did" this in OTL, claiming the Twins were 26,000 tons and had 11" armament. Using that, Germany's 175k is 10 ships. CA of 51,380 must be no more than 10,000 tons, and have gun caliber over 6.1" but no more than 8". That means 5, or 6 if about 8563 tons each. Hardly a war winner, since OTL the Panzerschiffes were overweight. CL's must be no more than 10,000 tons and only carry up to 6.1 inch armament. So, 6.7, or possibly 7 of 9,610 tonnage. We haven't even addressed if Germany can build or man all these ships, of course. Hitler was able to hide his goal by upgrading the next class to be small battleships (yes, they were over, but no one knew in time). If Germany decides to churn out your fleet, 2LNT is dead, and Britain starts cranking out ships.
More cruisers- we know, although the British weren't confident, that 3 cruisers can maul a Panzerschiffe, while they can't stand up to a convoy escorted by a Revenge battleships and a few cruisers. I think the Hawkins cruisers could run them down and sink them.
You are building, according to your schedule, 360,712 tons of capital tonnage (since Germany is, via the AGNA, a signatory of the Washington and First London treaties)
when she was only allotted 175,000; j
ust over twice her allotment.
And if you are going with no AGNA, then Britain will just go with it's triple 15" gun schemes, and start building them. KGV was laid down Jan 1 1937, but might be laid down earlier, as Japan has already indicated she is withdrawing from the treaties. The KGV class, although great, had delays due to treaty constraints (artificial and self enforced from the 2LNT, which won't exist here- since the 1930 Geneva Conference failed, German rapprochement failed, Japan withdrawing...) so Britain can get a design together, and stick to it, ignoring an overweight issues, meaning your 24 ships (plus others?) will face cruisers, 3 battlecruisers, the Hawkins class, and IMO 5 alt-KGV's. And if the British can't finish this, the Germans certainly won't be able to.
I really don't know how to explain to you that although you may say you can take the total tonnages, add the separate classes together, and get 24 ships out of it, that is not what the treaty states, what both German and British leadership expected the treaty to mean, or that Britain will not throw a fit and start building dozens of more ships to counter this.
I still can't figure out if you have the AGNA or not- if not, then Britain just might ignore Italy invading Ethiopia (AGNA in 1935, German starts ordering more Panzerschiffe in 1935- the guns take a long time), Ethiopa in 1936. Also, I've only seen Panzerschiffe, not Panzer Kreuzers, so no idea what they are-
this site indicates you are talking about either armored cruisers, or Emden light cruisers, which sucked. And if only laying down in 1937, about 3 years to build- but the start of war delayed most ships construction. Germany is in a Red Queen's race- some options get her closer to victory, but whether in building planes (the UK out-built then in 1940, let alone next years), ships, tanks, everything, she really can't win. Deterministic on an alternate history board, but unless ASB's help out, it is the truth.