Bill Clinton resigns

samcster94

Banned
What if in the Monicagate(or even something similar to it) scandal, Bill Clinton resigns?? This means Al Gore is President in the late 90's, making him incumbent in 2000. What happens next??
 
Well, I blame the Lewinsky thing for creating alot of our current problems so... US politics goes crazy much earlier than OTL. Bush gets the same sort of treatment Trump has been getting -- constant congressional investigation, probable claims of foreign interference*, nominees. Meanwhile, you see rioters and protestors constantly on the streets.

* Given the differing era+Bush Sr.being an arabist along with 9/11 it's probably claim of Saudi election hacking and not russia.
 
If Clinton resigns, he'd probably have done so in January 1998 when speculation around a resignation was at its peak. Depending on what Gore does in the next few months, and whether or not the public supports the resignation, the GOP could make big gains in the midterms. Come 2000, Gore may or may not be challenged by Bill Bradley in the primaries and IMO he still faces Bush in the general. Gore could take credit for the good economy, but the association with Clinton is still in the back of everyone's heads on election day. IMO 2000 is as much as a toss-up as OTL, with President Gore having both advantages and disadvantages.

As for Clinton, actually vacating office would reflect poorly on his legacy and he would be seen by many people as a failed President. IMO he would often be associated with Nixon as one of only two Presidents to resign and like Watergate came to define Nixon, the sex scandal would come to define Clinton. (Although in OTL it seems that Clinton's legacy is starting to become more defined by the scandal in the wake of the MeToo movement. Had Clinton resigned, this negative perception of him would've developed 20 years earlier).
 
If Clinton resigns, he'd probably have done so in January 1998 when speculation around a resignation was at its peak. Depending on what Gore does in the next few months, and whether or not the public supports the resignation, the GOP could make big gains in the midterms. Come 2000, Gore may or may not be challenged by Bill Bradley in the primaries and IMO he still faces Bush in the general. Gore could take credit for the good economy, but the association with Clinton is still in the back of everyone's heads on election day. IMO 2000 is as much as a toss-up as OTL, with President Gore having both advantages and disadvantages.

The only part of your post that I disagree with is the highlighted part. I see it being very likely that Bush is still the Republican nominee, but with a President resigning over a personal scandal I do see a slight opening for McCain to win the primary. The Democrats are very likely to do some thorough opposition research on the various Republicans, and especially if Bush still winds up the front runner at a point when there's still enough time for someone else to win, his personal scandals are very liable to come out. That might not be enough to sink him, either in the primary or general, but the possibility exists IMO.
 
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With Clinton resigning because of his "affairs" is it possible the GOP would insist on Elizibeth Dole as their VP candidate
 
I've actually written about 7000 words on this for TL idea.

With a Clinton resignation, Starr finishes that Spring/Summer. Gore is never connected to it and his message is "move on as a country." The Republican Congress basically has no message for the midterms and Gore will likely see a similar voter turn out, if not an improvement. The Democrats have a chance to take back the House, but the Senate is too steep a climb.

Gore probably does some cabinet reshuffle beyond what OTL saw in 1997 - new Chief of Staff (Ron Klein?) and Janet Reno might quietly depart.

Primary thought for 2000 - Gore is term-limited, cannot run in 2004. For a younger candidate like Bush, why challenge an incumbent in a great economy?

McCain is not the assumed winner in a No Bush scenario. Without Bush, Dole probably is but there is more fundraising to go around. McCain had major fundraising issues and ran a shoestring campaign that would not have lasted to the general in a more contested primary.

Butterflies from there on policy - Gore has stronger Russia ties, does the Kosovo War even happen?

Clinton is a little disgraced. Hillary Clinton likely has no chance for an electoral career unless something happens, but the "leaving him" comments seem off-base.
 

samcster94

Banned
If Clinton resigns, he'd probably have done so in January 1998 when speculation around a resignation was at its peak. Depending on what Gore does in the next few months, and whether or not the public supports the resignation, the GOP could make big gains in the midterms. Come 2000, Gore may or may not be challenged by Bill Bradley in the primaries and IMO he still faces Bush in the general. Gore could take credit for the good economy, but the association with Clinton is still in the back of everyone's heads on election day. IMO 2000 is as much as a toss-up as OTL, with President Gore having both advantages and disadvantages.

As for Clinton, actually vacating office would reflect poorly on his legacy and he would be seen by many people as a failed President. IMO he would often be associated with Nixon as one of only two Presidents to resign and like Watergate came to define Nixon, the sex scandal would come to define Clinton. (Although in OTL it seems that Clinton's legacy is starting to become more defined by the scandal in the wake of the MeToo movement. Had Clinton resigned, this negative perception of him would've developed 20 years earlier).
Indeed. That would butterfly away his wife's political career most likely as he'd be even more than OTL(even with #metoo, given in TTL, he'd given up office).
 
Indeed. That would butterfly away his wife's political career most likely as he'd be even more than OTL(even with #metoo, given in TTL, he'd given up office).
One obvious shift is no establishment backing or even tolerance of #MeeToo come ttl's late 2010s due to this.
 
The main effect of this POD is imo 1) moving up political violence being normalized by 20 years 2) creating a mentality that the US is more destabilized, which likely throws off recovery from the great recession 3) ensures gridlock so no bailouts/obamacare/dodd-frank 4) radicalizing the GOP 4-8 years early -- Trump wins in 2012, wins reelection in 2016 because Americans (usually) like two term presidents and this is a bit of a biggie 5) showing the democrats that identity-focused politics tickets don't work(running Obama and having him be a one-termer) so democrats in ttl's 2010s are starting to focus on economic issues.
 
The only part of your post that I disagree with is the highlighted part. I see it being very likely that Bush is still the Republican nominee, but with a President resigning over a personal scandal I do see a slight opening for McCain to win the primary. The Democrats are very likely to do some thorough opposition research on the various Republicans, and especially if Bush still winds up the front runner at a point when there's still enough time for someone else to win, his personal scandals are very liable to come out. That might not be enough to sink him, either in the primary or general, but the possibility exists IMO.

Maybe McCain wins the GOP primaries on an anti-corruption message? It would still be really hard for him to beat Bush barring any major scandal on Dubya's part. Even the DUI scandal right before the 2000 election at most prevented him from winning the popular vote. But if McCain were nominated I'm sure he'd beat President Gore - albiet narrowly.

That said, if Gore were to pull off an upset and win a full term in 2000 what would his administration look like? Here, he'd be serving from 1998-2005. The Republicans would probably block his environmental reforms, unless Gore can get enough bipartisan support to pass cap-and-trade, and maybe Gore listens to the intelligence community and pursues Al-Qaeda with greater diligence than Bush. Even if 9/11 happens, I think there's a greater chance of capturing Bin Laden at Tora Bora in December 2001 and there'd probably be no Iraq War.
 
Gore would lose handily in ttl since he'd be embroiled in financial scandals -- Gingrich would scent blood in the water. He'd lose the PV too, so no 2000 election Drama over recounts.
 
Maybe McCain wins the GOP primaries on an anti-corruption message? It would still be really hard for him to beat Bush barring any major scandal on Dubya's part. Even the DUI scandal right before the 2000 election at most prevented him from winning the popular vote. But if McCain were nominated I'm sure he'd beat President Gore - albiet narrowly.

That said, if Gore were to pull off an upset and win a full term in 2000 what would his administration look like? Here, he'd be serving from 1998-2005. The Republicans would probably block his environmental reforms, unless Gore can get enough bipartisan support to pass cap-and-trade, and maybe Gore listens to the intelligence community and pursues Al-Qaeda with greater diligence than Bush. Even if 9/11 happens, I think there's a greater chance of capturing Bin Laden at Tora Bora in December 2001 and there'd probably be no Iraq War.

Outside of Kyoto and the question of "sovereignty", most environmental reform was not fully a partisan issue before the Bush Administration. Newt Gingrich used to be vocal on climate change. A new "Clean Air Act" of 2001 could see carbon regulation and movement on it akin to the ozone layer crisis. Beyond that, domestic is hard to figure without detailing congressional majorities, probably early tobacco reform and no Bush tax cuts.

There is a good argument for potential peace deal in North Korea and denuclearization, maybe further pushes in Israel-Palestine but doubt any real conclusion.

9/11 is hard to touch but Iraq War, especially as we know it, would not happen.
 
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If the public hadn’t really turned on Clinton IRL then they sure wouldn’t ITTL. The likely result to me is the GOP alientating normal people without having as many diehard supporters.

What’d we see IMO is a Republican Party getting punished for pushing out a president that still holds a lot of public support and those results shaping up to be a Democratic midterms and 2000 election.

I don’t see this making our modern times come a little earlier, in fact I’d say it butterflies them completely as the GOP has the “gone too far” spasm out of their system with their failures in the latter half of the ‘90s and the 2000s, rather than that happening in this decade. Unless you’re of the belief that pushing further and further is just an inherent part of the GOP’s political formula and ideology.
 
What if in the Monicagate(or even something similar to it) scandal, Bill Clinton resigns?? This means Al Gore is President in the late 90's, making him incumbent in 2000. What happens next??

As others have said, Bush Jr. doesn't challenge an incumbent with 1 year behind the scandal/resignation and a booming economy. 2000 election is not close. Political climate is much calmer and rational OTL.

Americans take Bin Laden more seriously instead falling for the "missile strikes are just to deter from Monica scandal" line. Perhaps, with political capital and the the scandal behind him, Gore chooses to use special forces, not cruise missiles as in OTL. 9/11 potentially butterflied away.

No claims of foreign election hacking/interference in 2000 since there is ZERO evidence for that at that time. Note: 2000 election debacle affected the US political climate as much as the Monica scandal ever did (Monica-gate was a show, the 2000 election was prolonged national fervor/trauma that widened the cavern).

With a sane political climate, whoever follows Gore has an easier time. More bi-partisanship. Climate is not one like today in which Reagan would be laughed off the stage by his own party.
 
As others have said, Bush Jr. doesn't challenge an incumbent with 1 year behind the scandal/resignation and a booming economy. 2000 election is not close. Political climate is much calmer and rational OTL.

Americans take Bin Laden more seriously instead falling for the "missile strikes are just to deter from Monica scandal" line. Perhaps, with political capital and the the scandal behind him, Gore chooses to use special forces, not cruise missiles as in OTL. 9/11 potentially butterflied away.

No claims of foreign election hacking/interference in 2000 since there is ZERO evidence for that at that time. Note: 2000 election debacle affected the US political climate as much as the Monica scandal ever did (Monica-gate was a show, the 2000 election was prolonged national fervor/trauma that widened the cavern).

With a sane political climate, whoever follows Gore has an easier time. More bi-partisanship. Climate is not one like today in which Reagan would be laughed off the stage by his own party.
My question is how Gingrich reacts. I assume that he wants to be President still, but with Clinton resigning Gingrich has to resolve his own marital issues. With Clinton defeated, there is a good chance he does no run again in 1998, maybe quits to focus on 2000? He divorces then remarries in 1999.
 
This would destroy his presidential ambitions, as it did for Nelson Rockefeller who Gingrich once supported, and pave the way for Bush or McCain in 2000.
Gingrich had already divorced once before. He was still a contender IOTL after his divorce, but he ran too late.

ITTL maybe 2004 or 2008 works for him.
 
This would destroy his presidential ambitions, as it did for Nelson Rockefeller who Gingrich once supported, and pave the way for Bush or McCain in 2000.

That seemed to have only affected Rockefeller in the soonest election cycle after it had happened. Remember he would later serve as Vice President.

Gingrich's own two divorces would hurt him a bit more in 2000 than a normal presidential election, but it wouldn't end him by any means. Having said that, still doubts he wins, but it wouldn't be because of the divorces (although it'd become a commonly held idea that it did like for Rockefeller).

Gingrich wouldn't win because he was deeply unpopular with his mid-90s political stunts and the only thing that's even sort of resurrected his image is time. Two decades out of office causes a lot of ill will to dissipate.
 
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