samcster94
Banned
What if in the Monicagate(or even something similar to it) scandal, Bill Clinton resigns?? This means Al Gore is President in the late 90's, making him incumbent in 2000. What happens next??
If Clinton resigns, he'd probably have done so in January 1998 when speculation around a resignation was at its peak. Depending on what Gore does in the next few months, and whether or not the public supports the resignation, the GOP could make big gains in the midterms. Come 2000, Gore may or may not be challenged by Bill Bradley in the primaries and IMO he still faces Bush in the general. Gore could take credit for the good economy, but the association with Clinton is still in the back of everyone's heads on election day. IMO 2000 is as much as a toss-up as OTL, with President Gore having both advantages and disadvantages.
Indeed. That would butterfly away his wife's political career most likely as he'd be even more than OTL(even with #metoo, given in TTL, he'd given up office).If Clinton resigns, he'd probably have done so in January 1998 when speculation around a resignation was at its peak. Depending on what Gore does in the next few months, and whether or not the public supports the resignation, the GOP could make big gains in the midterms. Come 2000, Gore may or may not be challenged by Bill Bradley in the primaries and IMO he still faces Bush in the general. Gore could take credit for the good economy, but the association with Clinton is still in the back of everyone's heads on election day. IMO 2000 is as much as a toss-up as OTL, with President Gore having both advantages and disadvantages.
As for Clinton, actually vacating office would reflect poorly on his legacy and he would be seen by many people as a failed President. IMO he would often be associated with Nixon as one of only two Presidents to resign and like Watergate came to define Nixon, the sex scandal would come to define Clinton. (Although in OTL it seems that Clinton's legacy is starting to become more defined by the scandal in the wake of the MeToo movement. Had Clinton resigned, this negative perception of him would've developed 20 years earlier).
One obvious shift is no establishment backing or even tolerance of #MeeToo come ttl's late 2010s due to this.Indeed. That would butterfly away his wife's political career most likely as he'd be even more than OTL(even with #metoo, given in TTL, he'd given up office).
True. The 90's in TTL would probably be remembered more negatively for obvious reasons.One obvious shift is no establishment backing or even tolerance of #MeeToo come ttl's late 2010s due to this.
The only part of your post that I disagree with is the highlighted part. I see it being very likely that Bush is still the Republican nominee, but with a President resigning over a personal scandal I do see a slight opening for McCain to win the primary. The Democrats are very likely to do some thorough opposition research on the various Republicans, and especially if Bush still winds up the front runner at a point when there's still enough time for someone else to win, his personal scandals are very liable to come out. That might not be enough to sink him, either in the primary or general, but the possibility exists IMO.
Maybe McCain wins the GOP primaries on an anti-corruption message? It would still be really hard for him to beat Bush barring any major scandal on Dubya's part. Even the DUI scandal right before the 2000 election at most prevented him from winning the popular vote. But if McCain were nominated I'm sure he'd beat President Gore - albiet narrowly.
That said, if Gore were to pull off an upset and win a full term in 2000 what would his administration look like? Here, he'd be serving from 1998-2005. The Republicans would probably block his environmental reforms, unless Gore can get enough bipartisan support to pass cap-and-trade, and maybe Gore listens to the intelligence community and pursues Al-Qaeda with greater diligence than Bush. Even if 9/11 happens, I think there's a greater chance of capturing Bin Laden at Tora Bora in December 2001 and there'd probably be no Iraq War.
What if in the Monicagate(or even something similar to it) scandal, Bill Clinton resigns?? This means Al Gore is President in the late 90's, making him incumbent in 2000. What happens next??
My question is how Gingrich reacts. I assume that he wants to be President still, but with Clinton resigning Gingrich has to resolve his own marital issues. With Clinton defeated, there is a good chance he does no run again in 1998, maybe quits to focus on 2000? He divorces then remarries in 1999.As others have said, Bush Jr. doesn't challenge an incumbent with 1 year behind the scandal/resignation and a booming economy. 2000 election is not close. Political climate is much calmer and rational OTL.
Americans take Bin Laden more seriously instead falling for the "missile strikes are just to deter from Monica scandal" line. Perhaps, with political capital and the the scandal behind him, Gore chooses to use special forces, not cruise missiles as in OTL. 9/11 potentially butterflied away.
No claims of foreign election hacking/interference in 2000 since there is ZERO evidence for that at that time. Note: 2000 election debacle affected the US political climate as much as the Monica scandal ever did (Monica-gate was a show, the 2000 election was prolonged national fervor/trauma that widened the cavern).
With a sane political climate, whoever follows Gore has an easier time. More bi-partisanship. Climate is not one like today in which Reagan would be laughed off the stage by his own party.
He divorces then remarries in 1999.
Gingrich had already divorced once before. He was still a contender IOTL after his divorce, but he ran too late.This would destroy his presidential ambitions, as it did for Nelson Rockefeller who Gingrich once supported, and pave the way for Bush or McCain in 2000.
This would destroy his presidential ambitions, as it did for Nelson Rockefeller who Gingrich once supported, and pave the way for Bush or McCain in 2000.