Biggest plausible Kalmyk / Oirat expansion

Okay, in the early 17th century (1610s-1630s) a large amount of the Khoshut-Oirat Mongols migrated west after a conflict with both the Khalka (eastern) and other Oirat Mongols. They became known as the Kalmyks, and settled in the area known today as Kalmykia (although their initial settlement area was much larger). They were Tibetan Buddhists, and several hundred thousand of them migrated (definitely more than 200k).

However, what if a much greater amount of them migrated from Mongolia and joined the movement west. I'm thinking many more of the Khoshut-Oirats, around six or seven hundred thousand of them. In OTL, they expelled the Nogais and Tatars from the land they settled. With three times as many Kalmyks incoming, how much more could they have conquered?

If it makes a difference, let's take Russia out of the equation... say it remains divided, and the various Tatar khanates stay ruling there. How much could they have conquered? The Crimea? the Don-Volga valley? What about the Kazakh lands, who the Kalmyks invaded on their migration. How plausible might that be?
 
Well, by 1600s after the Time of Troubles it is too late to keep Russia divided. You will need to set up an earlier POD, or rather a set of PODs to accomplish that. Even then, after Ivan IV it is very unlikely that Russia breaks up into warring principalities, as the Tatar rule was overthrown some time before then. So Russia is likely to still be a major factor.
 
I'd leave the "no Russia" out of it -- that's really two PODs, no?

OTL the Kalmyks lasted 150 years or so, until Russian settlement encroached upon them in the mid-1700s. It was similar to what happened in the US Great Plains a century later -- well-armed and organized farmers, under a central government, pushing a frontier forward against horse nomads.

The technological differential wasn't as great, so the struggle went on longer, but the outcome was ultimately certain; the Russians had numbers, organization, strategic depth, and cannon.

OTL the Kalmyks saw which way the wind was blowing and, after much discussion, split in two. A smaller group stayed behind and tried to make peace with Catherine and the Russian state; their descendants are still living in the north Caucasus today. The larger group took off east on Eurasia's last _volkswanderung_, tens of thousands of people and millions of animals, in a years-long trek across Asia to find their ancestral homelands. Galactica 1775, if you like.

It was quite a trek. Catherine resented the loss of potential subjects, and sent Cossacks chasing after them deep into Central Asia. The tribes and kingdoms in their way did not welcome them with open arms, and they had to fight a number of battles. Roughly half of them died or abandoned the journey. But the rest survived, and made it back to the ancestral lands, and found a place to rest again. This is why there's a large Kalmyk minority in Chinese Xinjian today.

Anyway: a bigger migration west in the first place means a lot more Kalmyks facing Catherine in the 1760s. (Assuming the development of Russia isn't massively butterflied, and goes much as OTL.) So, instead of being a nuisance to be pushed aside, the Kalmyks are a major regional power, and clearing them out will require a major war.

Well... it's not like Catherine was shy about major wars. And the OTL Russians didn't let any native peoples stay dominant on land that they wanted.


Doug M.
 
I would say Kalmyks went almost as far as they could. There's no way nomad horde could break firearm-equipped army by mid-17 century. They bounced off Don cossacks. Would they be more numerous, they could break through and reach Southern Ukraine, fighting Crimean Khanate as they went. But that's about it...

OTL the Kalmyks lasted 150 years or so, until Russian settlement encroached upon them in the mid-1700s. It was similar to what happened in the US Great Plains a century later -- well-armed and organized farmers, under a central government, pushing a frontier forward against horse nomads.
Not exactly. Kalmyks did not "last" 150 years as independent force. They swore allegiance to Russia almost immediately after they arrived in area and expelled Nogais on order from the Russian authorities. They did participate quite readily in all internal mischiefs in the area (like Razin's uprising), but that's what you would expect, right? There were no major battles between Kalmyk tribal unions and Russian armies, Kalmyks supplied Peter the Great (who visited their Khan with pretty small escort, and Peter was absolutely apranoid about threat of assassination) with plenty of auxiliaries and Khans sent their heirs to Russian schools. Encroachment was done not by settlers, but by state itself, Czars weren't happy about semi-independent nomads in the midst of Russia.
OTL the Kalmyks saw which way the wind was blowing and, after much discussion, split in two. A smaller group stayed behind and tried to make peace with Catherine and the Russian state; their descendants are still living in the north Caucasus today.
AFAIR all Khans decided to abandon Russian lands, but tribes who occupied lands West of Volga were trapped by ice (it broke much earlier that year and prevented them from crossing Volga). And Kalmykia is Lower Volga, not Northern Caucasus.
Anyway: a bigger migration west in the first place means a lot more Kalmyks facing Catherine in the 1760s. (Assuming the development of Russia isn't massively butterflied, and goes much as OTL.) So, instead of being a nuisance to be pushed aside, the Kalmyks are a major regional power, and clearing them out will require a major war.
Unlikely. By the time Kalmyks arrived Russia created impenetrable (well, for Nomad hordes anyway) defensive line along it's Southern border. Greater Kalmyk migration will bounce off it and will likely look for Russian alliance against Crimea (much like they did IOTL against Nogai tribes). This could likely be a bonus for Russians, as Crimeans remained a nuisance IOTL until 1770s.
 
The only reason I wanted Russia to be out of the equation was so they would not, as CanadianGoose said, create an impenetrable defensive line. I think without the Russians in the area, and with a larger population, they could have expanded more. But I wasn't sure where, or how far...
 
The only reason I wanted Russia to be out of the equation was so they would not, as CanadianGoose said, create an impenetrable defensive line. I think without the Russians in the area, and with a larger population, they could have expanded more. But I wasn't sure where, or how far...
I would say they can repeat Mongol's northernmost push (they ARE mongols, after all) without Muscovite Pale in place. They could raid as far as Novgorod and Lithuania. But about permanent settlement, I'm not so sure. Up Volga until Nizhny Novgorod definitely, but not farther. In Ukraine (we're talking Kalmyk-wank, right?) up until Kiev.
 
I would say they can repeat Mongol's northernmost push (they ARE mongols, after all) without Muscovite Pale in place. They could raid as far as Novgorod and Lithuania. But about permanent settlement, I'm not so sure. Up Volga until Nizhny Novgorod definitely, but not farther. In Ukraine (we're talking Kalmyk-wank, right?) up until Kiev.


Well, a wank tends to imply non-plausibility. So not quite a wank, but better than OTL.

One problem with those areas: the Kalmyks wanted land for their horses and whatnot, which is partly why they migrated. But In the Ukraine and Russia, would the land be any better for that than the Siberian steppes? What I mean is, would the Kalmyks bother expanding into areas with large urban populations in some areas? Possibly they would rather just take more steppe in the Kazan-Kazakh-Sibir area.

But that is an interesting idea of expanding in Russia, I like that too.
 
But In the Ukraine and Russia, would the land be any better for that than the Siberian steppes?
Yes, most definitely YES. Southern Ukraine (south of Kiev) was nomad's dream, with grass so good human could eat it :) Historically it was one of best areas for nomadic lifestyle. Middle Volga is a bit more harsh, but not as harsh as modern-day Kalmykia. You may want to check out the history of Steppe wars. Victor ended up controlling Volga and Southern Ukraine, with losers being pushed to Kazakhstan or North of Caspian sea. Century after century. They knew what's best for their livestock, those guys.
 
Yes, most definitely YES. Southern Ukraine (south of Kiev) was nomad's dream, with grass so good human could eat it :) Historically it was one of best areas for nomadic lifestyle. Middle Volga is a bit more harsh, but not as harsh as modern-day Kalmykia. You may want to check out the history of Steppe wars. Victor ended up controlling Volga and Southern Ukraine, with losers being pushed to Kazakhstan or North of Caspian sea. Century after century. They knew what's best for their livestock, those guys.

Oh, I did not realize it was that good nomadic land. That is very interesting...
you seem to be very knowledgeable about this kind of stuff, thanks! :cool:
 
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