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OTL the Republicans won 60.3% to 34.1%. Harding even won a couple of southern states (OK and TN).
Harding was a pretty bland candidate whose campaign was "A Return to Normalcy".
Let's say...
1. The Republicans have a more charismatic and dynamic candidate. Leonard Wood perhaps?
2. The public finds out about Woodrow Wilson's stroke and the sordid details regarding his wife's semi-running of the Executive Branch