Big Fat South American PODs

Greetings and salutations.

It strikes me that South America (aside from the Eternal *Inca Empire and Mega-Brazil) is a bit underutilized in AH. This is perhaps understandable, given the era of colonial rule left the era at independence with a quite small population, poor internal communications, and very shaky political foundations: the ability of Latin Americans to shape world history, or of even that of their own continent outside of their own national balliwicks, was limited. Still, things could have been rather different, especially with early PODs.

So, a challenge: with PODs after the establishment of firm Portuguese and Spanish control - let's say after 1600 for Spain and 1661 (Treaty of the Hague) for Portugal, try to get some seriously different outcomes for South America, or at least large parts of it. Full timelines are not not needed: just come up with a good POD or two and explain how you think it would play out over time.

Bruce
 
Something I have planned for a timeline I hope to get started over the summer.

The Portuguese Royal family is captured by Napoleon and Brazil later Balkanizes into a Lusophone America. The Portuguese are to busy with their rebellious American colonies to go after Uruguay. With stronger support from the region the Liga Federal led by Artigas remains in power in Argentina who reforms will make the country the main power in South America and a moderately important world player in the early 20th century.

Also, here's an old thread with a load of cool PODs that might be usefull.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=130020
 
In my Spanish Intervention TL, I have coca becoming an East Asian trade good for the Spanish. This is going to have huge effects on the economy of the Viceroyalty of Peru. ITTL, it comes with other global events such as the loss of the Spanish empire in Europe; but coca as a trade good could be a PoD as it is. I still haven't worked out the full implications for my TL.
 
In my Spanish Intervention TL, I have coca becoming an East Asian trade good for the Spanish. This is going to have huge effects on the economy of the Viceroyalty of Peru. ITTL, it comes with other global events such as the loss of the Spanish empire in Europe; but coca as a trade good could be a PoD as it is. I still haven't worked out the full implications for my TL.

Oy. The Spaniards as drug pushers? The "Black Legend" is going to be further enhanced in this TL. OTOH, would anyone in Europe find their selling addictive drugs to asians objectionable before the 19th century, if that?

Hmm. An earlier Opium War? If it's Spain vs China in, say, the 18th century, I don't think Spain can pull off an victory...

Come to think of it, if Cocaine gets to Europe early enough, does it become another objectionable but un-bannable part of the European narcotic tradition, along with alcohol and tobacco?

"I'll have some fries and a big coke. [1] Oh, and a drink, too."


Bruce

[1] Joke shamelessly stolen from Turtledove.
 
Luckily, ITTL, they're so far only flogging off coca tea, which I figured was much closer to East Asian drinking preferences vis-a-vis OTL black tea and coffee, with the added boost to energy and endurance. From what I can gather, coca tea in itself is actually not that bad for you, it is treated in most Andean countries as a normal part of life and actually has health benefits and according to medical testing few negative side effects (though this is of course controversial).

Coca is likely to be more accepted in Europe, though as in OTL there will be those opposed to the habit out of religious reasons, as coca was associated with Amerindian religious traditions. I think coca had just as much potential to become part of the European narcotic tradition as tobacco, but it really missed the boat due mostly to bad luck. By the time it got popularised OTL, in the form of coca-wine, chemical knowledge was advanced enough to allow the development of pure cocaine, which was a whole new level and led to a much stronger negative reaction. I think a couple of extra centuries of exposure to coca-derived products in the Old World would likely make it un-bannable in some of it's forms.

So Spaniards wouldn't necessarily be drug-pushers any more than those selling tobacco or coffee. It would probably do good things for the South American economies, and give the Spanish something other than silver and gold to trade in Asia. Circumstances would change when someone manages to figure out how to extract pure cocaine, though.
 
Been looking at some of those posts on the other thread: some interesting stuff.

Re the eternal "Greater Paraguay" threads, does anyone have any info on the actual populations of Argentina and Paraguay circa 1850-1870? Argentina grew enormously from immigration after 1850: it was pretty thinly populated earlier. Also, Argentina was rather weakly unified in the pre-1853 Rosas era: it strikes me that if we look at earlier PODs, Paraguay in the eras of the first Lopez and de Francia might have a chance of peeling off northern areas of Argentina only weakly tied to Buenos Aires.

(Francia - what if had had a legitimate and competent heir? Or what if he had died early on and the 1811-1813 plans for a union of Paraguay and Argentina had actually gone through?)


What would Dutch north Brazil look like, anyway? Given a slave-plantation economy, and not too many Dutch settlers, could we get "greater Haiti?"


If Spain continues to rule over Portugal, might we get an earlier independent Brazil?

Bruce
 
Cocaine is a substance processed and mixed with other chemicals besides the coca leafs. I don't even think cocaine was possible pre-1900. So it wouldn't be drugs, just some sort of energizer drink at the very most.
About Paraguay, I guess the best option is to get a successor to Francia who doesn't attempt to go to war, and leave the country growing over time. Eventually, a Paraguay with a sound economy will push the entire region, although probably not much.
And of course, Latin America as a whole would have been better without so many civil wars during the 19th century. But you would need multitude of PODs...
IDK, there is a issue with the low population which can only be resolved with the indians not being wiped out by diseases (and the plausible pods for that are?), eventually defeating the Europeans and, over time, becoming nations on their own. I don't think you can get a lot more people down here with PODs after the European conquest.
Other than that, developing a sizable middle class during the 19th century can help develop an internal market later on, which may boost the economy.
 
Cocaine is a substance processed and mixed with other chemicals besides the coca leafs. I don't even think cocaine was possible pre-1900. So it wouldn't be drugs, just some sort of energizer drink at the very most.

Actually, they figured out how to synthesize cocaine as early as 1855. It wasn't too long after that they synthesized morphine with other chemicals and got heroin. Imagine if Peru and/or Colombia starts growing Coca Leaves and Poppy Plants at an earlier rate. Then you may see some South American countries getting rich quickly before the regulations start coming down in the U.S. for example.
 
Re the eternal "Greater Paraguay" threads, does anyone have any info on the actual populations of Argentina and Paraguay circa 1850-1870? Argentina grew enormously from immigration after 1850: it was pretty thinly populated earlier. Also, Argentina was rather weakly unified in the pre-1853 Rosas era: it strikes me that if we look at earlier PODs, Paraguay in the eras of the first Lopez and de Francia might have a chance of peeling off northern areas of Argentina only weakly tied to Buenos Aires.

Bruce

Argentina had 1.877.490 inhabitants in 1869, according to the census carried out that year. The region of Chaco, close to Paraguay, had more than 45.000 inhabintants, a great number of which were Amerindian. I don't know about the population of Paraguay
 
Argentina had 1.877.490 inhabitants in 1869, according to the census carried out that year. The region of Chaco, close to Paraguay, had more than 45.000 inhabintants, a great number of which were Amerindian. I don't know about the population of Paraguay

There is no consensus about that. Until recently the most reliable research about it pointed that Paraguay should have had between 285,000 and 318,000 people in 1864. However, a new study from 1999 claims that the number was bigger, between 420,000 and 450,000.
 
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