Biden in `88?

Considering his semi-legendary reputation for gaffery, it's probably unlikely, but a few things.

1.) Could Joe Biden have won the primaries without that (relatively minor) plagiarism gaffe?
2.) Could he have gone on to win the election?
3.) If so, what would President Biden have done?

Sorry if this has been done a million times before, but I haven't seen that thread.
 
He would have died, probably.

Wiki said:
Biden had felt poorly physically during parts of the campaign, suffering repeated headaches and at one point in September 1987 having to halt a speech in New Hampshire for 15 minutes after feeling faint. In February 1988, he suffered the first of two brain aneurysms that required life-saving surgery and seven months away from the Senate in order to convalesce from. Biden and others would speculate that had his campaign not ended early, the aneurysms might have been more severe or detected later and that he might not have lived out the year.
 
Oh wow! Maybe the OP should change this to Biden decides to run in 1992 or is selected as Clinton's running mate.

I'm most interested in the notion of what President Joe Biden would've done, so I'd be okay with that as well. Or just ASBing the aneurysm away, which I should not have forgotten about.
 
Considering his semi-legendary reputation for gaffery, it's probably unlikely, but a few things.

1.) Could Joe Biden have won the primaries without that (relatively minor) plagiarism gaffe?
2.) Could he have gone on to win the election?
3.) If so, what would President Biden have done?


1) Yes.

2) Yes. (Did you want detail? :)

3) Clinton-ish stuff, probably, but a little more liberal without being much more in favour of government. Biden was one of the guys birthed in Watergate, post-McGovern. The era where newly elected Democrats basically swung neoliberal on the economy and flirted with the ideas of neoconservatism domestically (see: Daniel Patrick Moynihan)[1]. Now Biden was one of the better Democratic orators, trailing EMK & Cuomo, of the '80s Democrats running for things and if one were to take a look at his record it would probably more liberal than Clinton's in terms of government interference, but otherwise similar as regards the general direction of a Democratic Presidency.


If you want an outline of a Biden administration think basically Clinton in '88, with a little more empathy towards the poor (welfare reform should be different) coupled with much the same ability to connect to people but with better speaking skills[2].

What you might see, if you're lucky, is some attempt at deregulation coupled with new modern regulations on certain things. At least until Congress gets hit with changing demographics and pissed off outsider/Perot/progressive voters sometime in the '90s.

Otherwise I doubt the general thrust of the United States from '88 to '00 will be wildly different. I don't think Biden will pass healthcare although obviously he can work with Congress better than Clinton. I don't really see the Gulf War going that differently. The tax hike might be a little higher and earlier, which could see the US hit a balanced budget earlier. Overall, though, no more than a little more liberal could be expected at the time..




[1] Nowadays neoconservatism is basically Wilsonian foreign policy but once upon a time it was a bit broader, tackling domestic problems from a fresh angle but—and here's the rub—heavily against government intervention. Moynihan, essentially, was a domestic neoconservative (and foreign neocon until the '80s) but he approached it from the attitude that government intervention can work but that the neocons were right in that things needed a different angle and the current ones—largely—weren't working.

[2] It's somewhat ignored these days but Clinton was a pretty bad speaker. What he had was an ability to connect to people, which is quite different but also important.
 
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You've got to remember that Lee Attwater was the supreme King of Spin. After the conventions IOTL, Dukakis had a massive lead over Bush, which was turned around by some of the most awsome and nasty political spinning known. This would not have changed if Biden got the nomination.

Take Attwater out of the equation and the odds are helped considerably.
 
Let's not grant the man magical powers.

He was helped by Dukakis running a horrible campaign and stuff like Willie Horton. Biden can run a good campaign, and doesn't have the same kind of stuff in his past.

That said, I believe George Bush is more likely than not to beat Biden—but the OP only asked if it possible for Biden to win and it is… maybe 40% or so?
 
Let's not grant the man magical powers.

He was helped by Dukakis running a horrible campaign and stuff like Willie Horton. Biden can run a good campaign, and doesn't have the same kind of stuff in his past.

That said, I believe George Bush is more likely than not to beat Biden—but the OP only asked if it possible for Biden to win and it is… maybe 40% or so?

Instinctively, that seems about right. I tend to agree that Bush would've been the favorite. But surely Biden would've done better (except in the event of his horrible death from an aneurysm) than Dukakis.

Yeesh, Democrats. You picked some real winners in the past. :noexpression:
 
Let's not grant the man magical powers.

He was helped by Dukakis running a horrible campaign and stuff like Willie Horton. Biden can run a good campaign, and doesn't have the same kind of stuff in his past.

That said, I believe George Bush is more likely than not to beat Biden—but the OP only asked if it possible for Biden to win and it is… maybe 40% or so?
The Willie Horton was brought up in a borderline racist ad and without Attwater, you may well not have had all that stupid shit about the pledge. I dont think he had magical powers, but he was extremely gifted at negative campaigning, to an extent I dont think we have seen since.

Take him out of the equation and I think both Dukakis(who had a 17 point lead over Bush at one point) and Biden would have won, with him in the equation, it would take a very good campaign for Joe Biden to win, which would be a shame.

Take away the king-maker and you change the king.
 
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