Bicentennial Man: Ford '76 and Beyond

What about Mo Udall?
Only a Representative. Good odds if he catches fire in the early primaries, but needs to last until then. Personally, my money is on Scoop Jackson. Kennedy had Chappaquiddick, some of Brown’s 1980 supporters largely did more harm than good. Wallace will be distrusted outside the South and Church’s only attempt crashed and burned.

Of course, with Panama, Scoop might end up choking on the issue...
 
Only a Representative. Good odds if he catches fire in the early primaries, but needs to last until then. Personally, my money is on Scoop Jackson. Kennedy had Chappaquiddick, some of Brown’s 1980 supporters largely did more harm than good. Wallace will be distrusted outside the South and Church’s only attempt crashed and burned.

Of course, with Panama, Scoop might end up choking on the issue...
Well who knows tho perhaps kennedy could pull some sort of miracle but i doubt but if he did it would be interesting
 
Only a Representative. Good odds if he catches fire in the early primaries, but needs to last until then. Personally, my money is on Scoop Jackson. Kennedy had Chappaquiddick, some of Brown’s 1980 supporters largely did more harm than good. Wallace will be distrusted outside the South and Church’s only attempt crashed and burned.

Of course, with Panama, Scoop might end up choking on the issue...
Why does everyone keep bringing him up? Even his own supporters said he suffered from a certain lack of charisma. You think that is gonna mean well in the primaries?

Like, a lot of people tend to bring up moderates and thinking they’re gonna be appealing enough in the primaries. The voters are gonna want someone blemish-free yet also charismatic and have a direction and plan.
 
Only a Representative. Good odds if he catches fire in the early primaries, but needs to last until then. Personally, my money is on Scoop Jackson. Kennedy had Chappaquiddick, some of Brown’s 1980 supporters largely did more harm than good. Wallace will be distrusted outside the South and Church’s only attempt crashed and burned.

Of course, with Panama, Scoop might end up choking on the issue...
I think everyone is overestimating the negative impact of Chappaquiddick on Kennedy in the same way they overestimate the negative impact of Iran-Contra on Reagan. Even in the very early polling for the 1972 democratic primaries immediately after chappaquiddick Kennedy was still leading the field.
 
Why does everyone keep bringing him up? Even his own supporters said he suffered from a certain lack of charisma. You think that is gonna mean well in the primaries?

Like, a lot of people tend to bring up moderates and thinking they’re gonna be appealing enough in the primaries. The voters are gonna want someone blemish-free yet also charismatic and have a direction and plan.
Because he alone will get the full benefit of organized labor. That means ground troops, fundraising and more. And Scoop wasn't so much a "moderate" as a syncretic . He was largely left-wing on economics. He just wasn't entirely 'woke' on social issues (though then, again, opposition to bussing was a mainstream opinion with quite a lot of people behind it) and really liked bombing countries.
What abouy Hugh Carey, Governor of New York?
Fair. Forgot about him. He also has a very good shot from what I read in the TL.
I think everyone is overestimating the negative impact of Chappaquiddick on Kennedy in the same way they overestimate the negative impact of Iran-Contra on Reagan. Even in the very early polling for the 1972 democratic primaries immediately after chappaquiddick Kennedy was still leading the field.
Kennedy also didn't actually enter the race and give his opponents time to dig up the dirt on Chappaquiddick. All it would have taken, as someone on this site said, was for someone to show up to a rally dressed as Aquaman and heckle him. And of course, without Carter as a foil, Kennedy can't count on the "Opposition to Carter" votes, nor, presumably, will he be able to answer the bete noire of the Kennedies "Why are you running?". He certainly couldn't in 1979.
 
Just reminding everyone here - AH.com's debate of which Democrat would win the nomination in 1980 in the event of a Ford 76 Win is practically as old as the site itself.

FWIW - I still maintain that the Democrats are going to pick someone who can come off as "anti-establishment" while broadly appealing to the left of the party. (Mo Udall would be perfect, were it not for his Parkinson's, so we'll have to see who @KingSweden24 picks.)
 
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Just reminding everyone here - AH.com's debate of which Democrat would win the nomination in 1980 in the event of a Ford 76 Win is practically as old as the site itself.

FWIW - I still maintain that the Democrats are going to pick someone who can come off as "anti-establishment" while broadly appealing to the left of the party. (Mo Udall would be perfect, were it not for his Parkinson's, so we'll have to see who @KingSweden24 picks.)
Technically, he did consider a 1984 so he could run in 1980, but mainly as an interim for whoever his VP would be to run in 1984.
 
I think everyone is overestimating the negative impact of Chappaquiddick on Kennedy in the same way they overestimate the negative impact of Iran-Contra on Reagan. Even in the very early polling for the 1972 democratic primaries immediately after chappaquiddick Kennedy was still leading the field.
I really don't think so. Iran Contra was an abstract scandal and Reagan had plausible deniability. Kennedy killed a woman through his own negligence/drunkeness. One of those will be a much more salient issue in the minds of voters.

Like it or not, after Chappaquiddick Teddy was damaged goods (and I say that as a fan of his). I also don't think we should read too far into pre-race polls like that, especially when done so far from the actual election cycle. Most early opinion polling is heavily driven by name recognition, and does not say much about how a candidate will fare once subjected to persistent attack.

And lastly, as has been stated ad nauseam else where, EMK was never really interested in being POTUS anyway. He only ran in OTL's 1980 because he was extremely disappointed with Carter, and no-one else was ready/able to represent the Liberal wing of the party.
 
Only a Representative. Good odds if he catches fire in the early primaries, but needs to last until then. Personally, my money is on Scoop Jackson. Kennedy had Chappaquiddick, some of Brown’s 1980 supporters largely did more harm than good. Wallace will be distrusted outside the South and Church’s only attempt crashed and burned.

Of course, with Panama, Scoop might end up choking on the issue...
I think Scoop was far too polarizing within the party due to his hawkishness. Dems aren't going to be too fond of someone with his record in the post-Vietnam era.
 
Personally, I think Reubin Askew the governor of Florida would be good choice. The big problem is most would see him as just a second Jimmy Carter.
 
African Antics
"...the debacle of 500 members of the ANC being poisoned as part of a mole hunt humiliated Tambo and dramatically hit his prestige within South Africa proper (though not overseas); it further caused many on the ground in South Africa to question the direction of ANC leadership, seeing as how the much more violent Rhodesian Bush War appeared to be winding down towards a peaceful, Anglo-American brokered peace agreement whereas the struggle against apartheid continued to run up against the rocks..." [1]

- From Apartheid and On

"...despite the fires still unquenched in Latin America, Bush set his sights on Africa as his next theater of influence, traveling to London in November to confer with his newly-minted counterpart, Denis Healey, on plans for the continent. They agreed that a settlement in Rhodesia was the first step, helping usher in an end to the conflict there with a "friendly" like Muzorewa in control; Healey added that Rhodesia was a "stepping stone," in his words, to a solution in South Africa over the anti-apartheid movement, where the example of a peaceful end to the Bush War and proof positive of what African majority rule could look like would perhaps lead to reforms in Pretoria. Bush was skeptical, first that the considerably larger and wealthier South African white minority would reform a system that so plainly benefitted them, and secondly that his peers in Washington had appetite for leaning on Pretoria to change when they were viewed as a critical cog in the anti-Communist machine in Africa, particularly now with Angola and Mozambique "ripe," as he described it in his notes. Healey and Bush did agree, however, to continue to support Somalia and encourage Barre's drift out of the Soviet sphere and to work with Egypt on finding a brokered solution to the escalating, increasingly ugly Ethiopian civil war..."

- The Bush Years


[1] True story! Tambo getting weakened by it is my own addition
 
Nightmare in Jonestown
"...a cult murdering a Congressman and crippling another, an assassination of a Congressman on foreign soil, that is, that got people's attention. As if Latin America didn't have enough attention on it as it were at the time, now a local Congressman is in the hospital, fighting for his life, because of the People's Temple, who all killed themselves within days. Leo Ryan was lucid within two days after being evacuated to Tobago and boy I've never seen anyone that indignantly angry in my life..."

- Former Congressman Harvey Milk, 2008 Interview "Ghosts of Jonestown"

"...tell Marilyn Quayle why her husband, the father of her three children, is dead on a tarmac in Guyana, and the people of Indiana's 4th Congressional District why they don't have representation in Congress right now. Tell the family of my aide, Jackie Speier, why their daughter isn't coming home. The journalists who gave their lives to report on this matter. The families of all those who Jim Jones led into his dark night. Tell them! Go on, tell them! If you won't, I will. For too long, Jones and his "church," if you can even call it that, was indulged by California's political classes. By its elite. A bipartisan consensus to keep Jim Jones happy. Sometimes at arms length, like Governors Reagan and Brown, who just smiled and nodded; sometimes, tight, like Assemblyman Brown, or the Mayor up there in San Francisco, George Moscone. That his people were useful for pamphleting, for canvassing, for getting out the vote, while they turned a blind eye to abuse, to drugs, to violence. Now do you see? Now do you see what happens when we ignore festering evil in our midst, for political expediency? Goddamn, I might never walk again. Was that worth my legs? Congressman Quayle's life? All those people who just killed themselves, alone in the jungles, at the whim of a madman?"

- Congressman Leo Ryan, Hospital Room Interview, Tobago, November 1978

"...the Jonestown killings crippled Moscone. He caved to Supervisor White's demands for his seat back within moments, angering Milk and the progressives; the conservatives who hated him still hated him, the general public hated him, Milk's faction hated him. It was like the city had been decapitated, a city stunned by the events down in Guyana. Ryan had Moscone in his crosshairs but Jerry Brown and Willy Brown, too. Anyone who had let this happen was a target for Ryan's coming crusade..."

- When Love Wasn't Enough: An Oral History of San Francisco in the 1970s
 
Fucking hell, it's all kicking off. Leo Ryan turning his sights on all of California's politicians is certainly an interesting move. Interesting still to see that Moscone is still alive, and that White's got his way. On the plus side, Milk's survival here means...fuck, I'm not sure what it means. All this with Dan Quayle dying (Reading that he was due to go on the trip to Jonestown is fascinating, BTW) means we're in uncharted territory. And if Reagan plans to run for the Presidency in the future....well, there may be a giant Leo Ryan shaped albatross around his neck.

Also to be clear, Assemblyman and Senator Brown are two different people, yes? Jerry Brown is obviously one of them, but just to make sure.
 
Ah, so that's how Harvey Milk survived. It'll be interesting to see how the LGBTQ community develops with him still alive, especially with AIDS right around the corner and his eventual election to Congress.
 
Fucking hell, it's all kicking off. Leo Ryan turning his sights on all of California's politicians is certainly an interesting move. Interesting still to see that Moscone is still alive, and that White's got his way. On the plus side, Milk's survival here means...fuck, I'm not sure what it means. All this with Dan Quayle dying (Reading that he was due to go on the trip to Jonestown is fascinating, BTW) means we're in uncharted territory. And if Reagan plans to run for the Presidency in the future....well, there may be a giant Leo Ryan shaped albatross around his neck.

Also to be clear, Assemblyman and Senator Brown are two different people, yes? Jerry Brown is obviously one of them, but just to make sure.
Yes! Assemblyman Willy Brown, future OTL Speaker of the California House and SF Mayor (and political patron/mentor of both Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris). So their careers. And Feinstein’s, are a bit different

curiously enough, Jonestown OTL was a big part of the Moscone/Milk murders - exposure over Jonestown was what made Moscone vulnerable to Milk’s pressure not to reappoint White. Here TTL the Mayor’s assessment of next moves cuts a bit differently.
 
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