Bicentennial Man: Ford '76 and Beyond

If its too bad in South Africa, you might see a reversal of OTL where a ton of the white population of SA flees to Zimbabwe. Which could cause significant changes because there are quite a few whites in SA, and not very many people at all in Zimbabwe. In such a scenario the white population of Zimbabwe could go from being around 2-3% to 10-20% of the population in a relatively short time frame. I have no idea what effects this would bring to both countries, but off the top of my head if its relatively wealthy whites from South Africa then it could lead to a surge of investment into Zimbabwe and result in a much, much richer country.
That’s a thought! So far my ideas on SA aren’t quite the “WI the Afrikaners kill Mandela in prison” or “1990s race war after apartheid ends” grimdark clichés you see thrown around but rather the Zimbabwean example being successful enough that Mandela and other ANC prisoners gets released earlier under heavy international pressure for another “internal settlement”... triggering a power struggle within the ANC between him and Tambo for the rest of the 80s, with a much more open feud with Inkatha too.

So not something super ugly but definitely way more chaotic and definitely more violent than what was seen OTL
 
Trouble in Iran?
"...believe it or not, it wasn't Panama that made Turner the odd man out - it was Iran. When the protests started in 1977 nobody thought much of it, but once things really started to escalate early in '78, then we were suddenly embroiled in Panama and we had the giant price shock and inflation spiked back up into the double digits, there was no way the administration was going to tolerate another supply shock on top of the turmoil that the Canal being shut down had already caused. "I will not be a Hoover!" Jerry shouted at Bill Simon at a meeting and he debated firing Art Burns, or at least not nominating him to another term. Turner not having foreseen the issues in Panama, then claiming with a straight face in a principals meeting of the NSC that "there is no revolutionary environment in Iran" sent Jerry through the roof. Don, Rumsfeld that is, he'd never wanted Turner at CIA to begin with, he'd had the knives out for him since the day he was sworn in, so this was already a big win for Don. We got together later - me, Jerry, and George. We sat down and talked about Stan Turner and Jerry turned to George, who lets just say was under a lot of fire for what was going on in Panama, and asked what he thought. George just shrugged and said, "One mistake is too many. Two is..." and never finished his sentence, just letting it sit out there. When you'd lost George's confidence, that was really that. It told Jerry everything he needed to know, and gave George a good scapegoat to take the heat off him internally, too. Turner resigned the next day and his deputy, Frank Carlucci, took over both on an acting and then permanent basis. Carlucci went back to the Eisenhower days and got along with everyone on the foreign policy team - I liked him, George liked him, and most importantly, Don down in Arlington wasn't trying to get him fired..."

- National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft

"...the Shah was receiving the worst advice in the world from [Ardeshir] Zahedi [1]
, and the new "regime" at Langley and the Pentagon made sure that Washington's "line" if you will was coming from reliable sources. By this point, the word was simple - the Shah was a liability and in over his head, especially as he debated firing much of the SAVAK. Tear gas and rubber bullets flowed like water over a cliff to Iran within weeks of Carlucci taking over, and CIA advisors were on the ground in Tehran, trying to learn our ways. It was plain how much the Americans had ignored or misunderstood our part of the world, the idiosyncrasies they could not begin to understand. But the message was clear - we put the Shah in power with Ajax... well, to a point, but nevertheless. They had made Mohammad Reza Shah, and they could and would unmake him. Tensions were not meant to rise. One way or another, they were relying on their friends here in Iran to put a stop to the street protests, to the agitation of the most radical clerics... we were being asked to solve the problem for them, the Iranian way..."

- General Nader Jahanbani, former head of Iranian National Supreme Council, 1998


[1] Iran's ambassador in Washington at the time
 
That’s a thought! So far my ideas on SA aren’t quite the “WI the Afrikaners kill Mandela in prison” or “1990s race war after apartheid ends” grimdark clichés you see thrown around but rather the Zimbabwean example being successful enough that Mandela and other ANC prisoners gets released earlier under heavy international pressure for another “internal settlement”... triggering a power struggle within the ANC between him and Tambo for the rest of the 80s, with a much more open feud with Inkatha too.

So not something super ugly but definitely way more chaotic and definitely more violent than what was seen OT
That’s a thought! So far my ideas on SA aren’t quite the “WI the Afrikaners kill Mandela in prison” or “1990s race war after apartheid ends” grimdark clichés you see thrown around but rather the Zimbabwean example being successful enough that Mandela and other ANC prisoners gets released earlier under heavy internationalp pressure for another “internal settlement”... triggering a power struggle within the ANC between him and Tambo for the rest of the 80s, with a much more open feud with Inkatha too.
Let’s get the pac involved also!
So not something super ugly but definitely way more chaotic and definitely more violent than what was seen OTL
 
the colonel, and many other Arabs, were backing the Pan Africanist Congress. Kaiser mantanzima and his bantustan pals, had developed their own military’s. Perhaps that can also be a factor.
 
the colonel, and many other Arabs, were backing the Pan Africanist Congress. Kaiser mantanzima and his bantustan pals, had developed their own military’s. Perhaps that can also be a factor.

Who is the colonel referring to? Gaddafi? (I'd forgotten about him TBH! He'll need to show up here eventually too)
 
I don’t think there’s been a POD sufficient to undo the enthusiasm for hijackings that was common among late 70s terrorists quite yet
Hmm yeah true most are islamic highjacker or cold war related (like dawson field was about palestine and lockerbie was ordered by gadaffi) maybe perhaps you could do a twist where the PLO pissed not only the israeli but also the jordanian since historically jordan and PLO isnt on the best term (especially after munich and the assasination of the prime minister of jordam which are both perpetrated by black september)
 
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Turner not having foreseen the issues in Panama, then claiming with a straight face in a principals meeting of the NSC that "there is no revolutionary environment in Iran" sent Jerry through the roof.
ROLF the irony is strong here!

Interesting chapters! And the Panama crisis... That feeling of dread, while reading about the whole situation; it keeps escalating and escalating, until it literally blows up. Very well written!
 
ROLF the irony is strong here!

Interesting chapters! And the Panama crisis... That feeling of dread, while reading about the whole situation; it keeps escalating and escalating, until it literally blows up. Very well written!
Thanks!

Turner’s CIA literally told Carter that, which was what Peanut then based much of his response on (Carter is a good and decent man but I can’t think of any President who did a worse job with who he surrounded himself in terms of people whom to go to for advice. Maybe GWBush, for different reasons)

A Ford recently scarred by the Fall of Saigon and now Panama exploding, and who has Rummy around, would react very differently to Turner’s dismissive assessment
 
Thanks!

Turner’s CIA literally told Carter that, which was what Peanut then based much of his response on (Carter is a good and decent man but I can’t think of any President who did a worse job with who he surrounded himself in terms of people whom to go to for advice. Maybe GWBush, for different reasons)

A Ford recently scarred by the Fall of Saigon and now Panama exploding, and who has Rummy around, would react very differently to Turner’s dismissive assessment

Happy Holidays! And yeah, I wonder what's gonna happen now
 
Isthmian Follies
"...just because we had effective control of most of the Canal Zone and were able to get the spillways shut, the locks closed, or at least blocked to the point that there wasn't any more leakage, didn't mean that the situation was better. Civilians were not happy to have us there in the cities and we were under frequent sniper and small-arms fire. It was like being in Saigon again. Trujillo and his forces withdrew to the jungles - Trujillo in the west, Noriega in the east. Through the Darien Gap, we knew FARC was getting supplies to Noriega, even though they weren't commies. We had to get things blocked up from the other direction..."

- Anonymous Soldier, "On Panama"

"...there was very much a sense at Foggy Bottom that the debacle had been caused by Bush and that he thus had to make up for it. The administration started putting pressure, diplomatic pressure, on Costa Rica in particular but also Honduras and Nicaragua, to get with the program. This was all going against a backdrop of major agitation from anti-regime, typically left-wing forces throughout the region... you may as well have thrown gasoline on a fire."

- Former Senator Thomas Foley, 2007

"...the Somoza regime faced massive street protests merely over the rumor that they were going to provide material assistance to the United States; the Sandinistas had the biggest recruitment boon they'd ever have and made massive gains just in a few weeks in late February. We suggested Somoza flee; he declined, and on February 28th he was killed in a car bombing. Nicaragua was plunged into chaos; military forces turned on each other as various generals scrambled to find a potential leader. The National Guard briefly seized power; riots shut down 90% of the countries economy. Suddenly, Costa Rica started getting twitchy about hosting US forces, even though both major parties there were pro-Washington to some extent. Honduras announced a nationwide curfew on March 2 after a major protest there too. Rebels in El Salvador and Guatemala were emboldened. The region was catching fire. And in Havana, Fidel was cackling between cigar puffs, I'm sure..."

- CIA Director Frank Carlucci, 1998 Interview with 60 Minutes
 
Middle East - Early 1978
"...the attack on the Israeli bus was meant to scupper peace talks between Sadat and Begin, and was thankfully not successful in that endeavor despite being the worst terrorist attack against Israel since Munich..."

- "War, Peace, and Oil: The Middle East in the 1970s"

"...the crackdown on protestors by the military in Tehran was matched only by increasing frustration with the Shah's dumbfounded response; Jahanbani flew to London in late March to consult secretly with Jim Baker, George Bush's number two at State. They agreed that Iran collapsing into revolution, as seemed to increasingly be the risk, was unacceptable. Baker requested Jahanbani present the Shah with an ultimatum, and upon returning to Washington started nudging various Mideast and Asian embassies to see who was willing to accept a potentially exiled Shah as their guest..."

- "State Secrets: George Bush and the Shadow Diplomacy of the Ford Years"
 
Well, the situation in Central America is worsening with all the ommense tension and so on.

And the Shash in exile... well, that may actually not be bad all things considered.

This is gonna convince alot of people of being against global intervention, at least to this scale. And it'd be another Vietnam which is now POing people more
 
Not unless Saddam wants to see his army manhandled straight across the Shatt-Al Arab
Yeah true and with the performance of the iraqi air force during the otl are pretty low i bet the onky thing he would do is point some rocket at both israel and iran
 
I will readily grant that I am by no means an expert on pre or post-revolutionary Iran; I'll just point out for posterity here that the POD of an impending military coup against the Shah, egged on by an exasperated Washington (I'll tip my hand on that since the tea leaves are pretty obvious at this point) is happening before Ayatollah Shariatmadari is alienated from the regime and before the Rex Cinema fire really pours gasoline on the flames of revolution (dark joke, couldn't resist), which means Iran is going to go hard in another direction than OTL even if it's not going to be especially stable for a while.

And no, there will not be an Iran-Iraq War.
 
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